June 2nd, 2014

Ashcroft Newark Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear

Lord Ashcroft reports:

“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted. More than nine out of ten voters say they have heard from the Conservatives locally, including 81 per cent who have had literature through the door; nearly half have received personally addressed mail. Eight in ten say they have heard from UKIP; the party is reported to be slightly more active than Labour in all elements of the local campaign.

The poll was conducted in the week before polling day, and just under a fifth of voters say they may yet change their mind. Despite this, it looks clear that the next MP for Newark will be Robert Jenrick.”

The full data is here.

It’s theirs to lose…


113 Comments

  1. 1
    Sarah Millington says:

    We march on.

    Like

  2. 2
    Orson cart says:

    Selection probably as weighted as a Aljabeeba debate.

    Like

    • 91
      Goebbles says:

      Highly dubious propaganda based on a biased sample.

      Look at his demographics for Age and Social Class: a disproportional majority were over 65 and Class AB (i.e., old snobs).

      Less than 28% of his sample were under 45, not reflecting the population.

      Boy, is he going to get a surprise on Thursday!

      Like

      • 95
        Pleb (one of the Hoi-Polloi Plebs) says:

        Who would tell the truth to a Polling Company called ‘Lord’ anything?
        Has this fucker no insight at all?

        Like

        • 111
          We don't care what you tell us. says:

          This is what we Polling Companies called “weighted response”. Essentially we know that a few (100%) of the people we mug in the street wouldn’t tell us the truth if we threatened them with a gun. (We tried this in Tower Hamlets but everyone carries and we were losing too many interviewers to self-defence shootings). Consequently, we pollsters simply ask the poll-funder what result they would like and – hey presto – what a coincidence. We find that our poll results far more accurately reflect how much we were paid than any of our competitors.

          Like

  3. 3
    still walking into darkness says:

    6% would be a good result for Clegg

    Like

  4. 4
    Orson cart says:

    EVERY poll has seriously underestimated UKIP.

    Liked by 1 person

    • 36
      Gooey Blob says:

      Trust me, Royalist Newark is natural Tory territory. I’m surprised Ukip has found the support it has there. The purples have an outside chance in a handful of seats at the GE, but Newark isn’t one of them.

      Like

    • 40
      Anonymous says:

      They overestimated Ukip for the euro elections.

      Like

      • 78
        Democinghell says:

        What planet are you on? Planet Denial?

        Did you see how many councillors they won?

        If you’re not concerned why keep posting about how supposedly badly they did?

        Like

  5. 5
    Anon. says:

    Labour decrease of 2.3% since 2010? Really?

    Like

  6. 6
    Anon still Voting for UKIP ORG says:

    hmmmmmm Perhaps the Postal Voting Fraud is now infecting
    Ashcrofts Mendacity & Manipulation Polls…..

    Like

  7. 8
    *yawn* says:

    “It’s theirs to lose…”

    You tit. Can’t stand that your beloved UKIP might not win!

    Like

  8. 9
    Cheqemated says:

    Let’s just wait and see shall we?

    Lord Ashtray is a committed Camservative and any poll he commissions should be judged accordingly.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. 10
    Spoonface Dave says:

    Nigel Farage told me to be a man

    So I will embrace our old friend Vlad on Friday…in France…

    (Downing Street release)

    Like

  10. 11
    Antipo-dean says:

    Interesting if true – it would mean Labour is bleeding support to UKIP.

    Like

  11. 12
    Orson cart says:

    It’s predictions of electionn results that makes many not bother to vote.

    Like

  12. 13
    Newsfox says:

    Tories polling miles ahead in Newark – British earthquakes never have much impact eh?

    Like

  13. 14
    Nevermind says:

    They obviously love bumsex and slave labour.

    Like

  14. 15
  15. 16
    sillylilykins says:

    National poll by Lord Ashcroft: Lab: 34% Tories: 25% UKIP: 19% Lib Dem: 6%

    #SaveDave

    Like

    • 19
      Ex Tory voter says:

      Dave is fucked and can never recover

      He should resign as Tory leader

      He is a discredited joke

      Liked by 2 people

    • 25
      táxpáyér says:

      54% of vote to 34% of vote.

      Other Dave-Party MPs can do the maths and work out what that means for their chances of working in the houses of parliament when their contract comes up for renewal.

      Like

    • 97
      Jack Ketch says:

      Survation Poll 28 May
      Cons 36% Labs 27% Dim-Lebs 5% Ukip 28%

      3% variance in 24 Hrs. Let’s say 4% MoE in Ukip’s favour, could be Cons 32%, Labs 27%, Libs 4%, Ukip 33%

      Like

  16. 17
    Observer says:

    The Newark voters will surely appreciate another Tory who asks questions for cash

    In fact tyey would sell their mothers for cash

    Tories are just corrupt scum

    Liked by 1 person

  17. 18

    69% 0f those likely to vote would vote for a centre-right party. If UKIP and Dave’s social democrat clique would stop swinging their handbags at each other, Labour would be buried in 2015. Put Nation before Party, cretins, and stop arguing over who started it first.

    Like

  18. 21
    Vote UKIP says:

    The voters are smearing us. How dare they not vote for us.

    Like

  19. 23
    Anonymous says:

    Has Ashcroft asked Tower Hamlets to do the count?

    Liked by 1 person

  20. 24
    Gary Elsby Stoke. says:

    Pro EU 68%

    Anti EU 27%

    Marginal error 5%

    Like

    • 32
      Socialism is theft says:

      Some idiot is making the assumption that all Tory voters (and Labour) are all in favour of the EU.

      Like

      • 99
        Gary Elsby Stoke says:

        Some dork suggests there is an anti majority inside them bursting to get out!

        A dangerous tactic which bulls up UKIP which slides Labour and Ed all the way home.

        Like

    • 35
      Anonymous says:

      Fudge packer.

      Like

  21. 30

    Slowly, Slowly, Catchy Monkey ;-)

    Vote UKIP :-D

    Like

    • 41
      Observer says:

      Fifth EU Russian Ukrainiaan meeting today in Brussels

      Witoiut any neocon Americans

      Putin received for dinner on Wednesday in Paris

      Cameron embracing Putin on Friday

      You must be a cheap neocon troll trying to lie again after denying your Putsch on February 21

      The truth is now known

      It is the US which has problems in Europe now, not Russia!

      Like

    • 53
      NSA GCHQ boss says:

      What are you talking aboiut?

      This is amateur stuff..

      We do worldwide industrial and political espionage

      Have you ever heard of Edward Snowden?!

      Like

  22. 31
    UKIP voter says:

    All this poll is going to do is motivate people to vote UKIP and would be Tory voters to stay at home and not bother voting. The average Tory voter will simply say ‘why bother its a sure thing’.

    Ashcroft may have made a big blunder and one he will come to regret.

    Like

  23. 34
    Mycroft says:

    Read the data and the poll is provably fallacious.

    A Conservative run poll shows Conservatives in the lead. Well I never!

    The reality on the stump is quite different.

    Damn it, even the BBC is confronting mini-me on his numerous houses!

    BTW, only just managed to get on the Electoral Register, he had to have some help though!

    Like

    • 46
      Col Ripper of Braintree says:

      What about his tax dodging renovation fund?

      If Dave bumsex can get this little gimp elected it just goes to show that the people of newark as as thick as any red rossette voting wanker on a northern council estate

      Like

      • 55
        Mycroft says:

        Tory voters are very ‘loyal’ and that has been used repeatedly, I was there when Heseltine uttered these words in a Tory meeting right in the depths of the 1980s Tory wobble… “Don’t worry (to tory candidate) the sheep will always turn out and vote for us” not even moderating his tone or volume.

        …and they did!

        Like

        • 98
          Jack Ketch says:

          Normally Tory voters have only fuckwit lib-dems, Kim-Il Sung loving Trots or the Raving Monster Loonies to vote for in a safe seat. No matter how disgruntled they are with the Tory party, many could no more bring themselves to vote for such people than Ed Miliband could eat two bacon rolls and a pork pie. Maybe, just maybe, they will “take a chance”.

          Like

          • Mycroft says:

            We can only hope so, you are right in your statement that the loyal sheep have never really had an alternative until now.

            There are so many portents of doom that come along with UKIP that it is no surprise to see every Conseat occupant looking and praying that they aren’t in the 30-40-50 seats targeted by UKIP.

            Like

  24. 37
    DanePack_Light says:

    Would listening to a load of Toffs change anyone’s opinion who was thinking about changing their opinion?

    Like

  25. 38
    albacore says:

    Vote “Tory” and the losers will be Newark folks
    They might as well opt for Lab or LibDem sick jokes
    Did they ask the stalwart “Conservative” plonkers
    Why Desperate Dave gave the E U his conkers?

    Like

  26. 39
    Persona non grata says:

    Latest odds. Con’s 1.18 – UKIP 4.9 – Lab 67. The Lib Dems and the Buss Pass Elvis Party are neck and neck at 501.0.

    Like

  27. 42
    Col Ripper of Braintree says:

    How many polls for UKIP have been funded by a person suspected by the US DEA of money laundering and drug traffiking ?

    No wonder Ashcroft likes to curry favour with pols

    Like

  28. 44
    Anonymous says:

    To the good people of Newark. It seems that you like the idea of staying in Europe and having more and even more immigrants amongst you. Make no mistake, now that Cameron knows you back his policies, he will make sure the next 20,000 east europeans settle in your area. Do you think our political masters give a f–k for you once they have their man in position. You will not see them again until they want your next vote.

    Like

    • 65
      tigerowl says:

      “Make no mistake, now that Cameron knows you back his policies, he will make sure the next 20,000 east Europeans settle in your area”..
      No wonder you sign in as Anonymous. If that was my view I too would not want people to know who I am. 20k all coming to Newark. You must be the man who thinks out UKIP policies then.

      Like

  29. 47
    Fruitcake, swivel eyed loony, closet racist, crank and gadfly says:

    I’m not sure who has the least credibility, Miliband’s economic policy or Ashcroft’s poll.

    The most likely result is a Tory hold with a majority of 3-5k.

    Vote UKIP, get UKIP.
    Vote Dave, get Ed.
    Vote Ed, get poorer.
    Vote Nick, get your head examined.

    Like

  30. 50
    Anonymous says:

    A glorious victory for Dave in this tight marginal .Dave’s european policies are a real winner in Newark.

    Like

    • 79
      Democinghell says:

      LOL yeah, hand over more and more power to Europeans, a real winner….

      /sarcasm

      Like

      • 107
        Flaming Torches R Us says:

        The EU have just told Dave and Oz to increase your taxes – so the new applicable rate will be through your door on Monday, with a deadline date of the following Friday for you to pay up or else…

        Like

  31. 54
    Gooey Blob says:

    Ukip just don’t seem to be able to do better than second in any by-election. That doesn’t bode well for next year.

    Like

  32. 56
    Nigel Farage says:

    Keep Dave in Newark he’ll win it for me!

    Like

  33. 59
    The Parson says:

    Is there time to replace Helmer?

    Like

  34. 60
    Face stomping chianti socialists till I'm knee deep says:

    I’m starting to hate the Tories almost as much as I do Labour!

    Like

  35. 61
    lolathebeautiful says:

    So, 69% vote no to Socialism?

    Like

  36. 62
    Long John Silver's parrot says:

    Nigel’s man should really piss it.

    Like

  37. 63
    Mycroft says:

    Bear in mind that this ‘sexed up’ poll still shows that the Cons have lost 20% of their previous vote.

    The time scale, demographic and intention base are all based on a previous formula, that simple algorithm has failed ever since UKIP began to be heard and seen on the box and on the social Tannoy.

    If instead you apply the newer algorithm, the one that gets the raw results of the recent past and accurately hindcasts the known results, the picture is very different.

    Lord Ashcroft is like someone using Windows 3 when the world has moved on…

    Even that though can’t hide a 20% fall in support.

    Mycroft— Pissing on chips is such fun :)

    Like

  38. 66
    tigerowl says:

    It is a bi election. Will make no difference to the Westminster parliament. 16k majority will fall as there will probably not be 16k vote. But as the election is in less than a years time, no one will worry too much about this result. And the people of Newark can see through the cowpooh of UKIP. Just another lot of Tories. With a leader who loved Mrs Thatcher.

    Like

    • 67
      Roger Hemler says:

      Better than an outright gay election.

      Like

    • 73
      Fed-up-Pleb says:

      Very true…one of the major things I dislike about UKIP is their reactionary tory stance. In the end UKIP will be full of ex-tories as they dont have the bottle at local or national level to fuck Dave and his shangai friends off.

      Then the real hard working class people of this country will soon smell another ‘con’ on the horizon. All stink.. theres no diff between em all.

      Like

      • 81
        Democinghell says:

        That might be true if the Tories were still Tories and not pathetic socialist excuses that hand over more and more power to the EU everyday.

        Like

    • 89
      Mummy says:

      Yes that’s right lovey, just cow pooh. Now go back to sleep and everything will be all right in the morning.

      Like

  39. 71
    CastIron_Dave says:

    Thursday, seems like a gay-day?

    Like

  40. 74
    VonCameroon says:

    Goto go now chaps… Sam wants me to watch Emmerdale – getting all rather exciting these days.

    Like

  41. 80
    Democinghell says:

    A dropped in posh boy who isn’t even from the area?

    Who in hell is going to vote for him?

    Like

    • 102
      give over says:

      Or some fruitcake like Helmer, also a carpet bagger.

      Like

      • 104
        domino says:

        Seems plenty of peasants did just the other week..and before your predictable whine of “well they voted UKIP not the candidate”, quite sure they will have seen or head his name..unlike the Labourites who are genetically predisposed to put a cross next to any old pig.

        Like

  42. 82
  43. 93
    UKIPER says:

    Like

  44. 96
    Roger go-go says:

    I prefer the pure splendour of UKIP’s polling method, coutesy of ‘tallbloke’ (the UKIP supporting climate sceptic blogger at Tallblokes Talkshop) commenting on the thread under Ashcroft’s ConservativeHome piece today, and this was polled yesterday, not last week. (h/t)

    ‘I was in Newark campaigning yesterday. As an experiment, we held up a UKIP banner at a busy road junction and counted the thumbs-up vs one/two-finger salutes. We got an fairly even split from a sample of around 100 maybe around 40/100 thumbs-up. To me, this suggest the gap is narrower than Lord Ashcrofts poll suggests.’

    Liked by 1 person

    • 101
      Mycroft says:

      Tallbloke is a top fella and speaks the truth. Good to see him on here.

      I too conducted my own little poll over the days I was there, the polls are genuinely too close to call, there will be less than 2000 votes in it I feel. (not scientific in the least)

      Liked by 1 person

  45. 103
    domino says:

    Oh Belize, who in their right mind would Belize anything his polls had to say, as Belize-able as Cast Iron saying we will get our referendum.

    Like

  46. 105
    Ashcroft-Speaking to 1K people and then gibbering about how all of them will think says:

    After speaking to ONE THOUSAND people I think I’d know the ‘Lay of the Land’ in Newark, and they’re all Tory Toff Landowners’! It’s Fracking, Wind Farm’s, High Rent’s and Low Wages!…That’ll settle the puissant little boy’s club of 600 MP’s ‘in waiting’ down! Now, we’ve got no members, so where is the ‘We post for £3/Hour’ local takeaway leafletter orrifice? (and we can call it a full-time job! just like a Big Issue seller would do!)

    Like

  47. 106
    Roger go-go says:

    Political Betting has dug out Ashcroft’s polling for the Eastleigh by-election last year, compared to the actual result. It was:- 1st Ashcroft poll UKIP 15%, 1st Survation poll UKIP 16%, 2nd Survation poll UKIP 21%, Populus poll UKIP 21%, 2nd Ashcroft poll UKIP 21% Result UKIP 27.8%

    Make of that what you will.

    Like

  48. 108

    bum -sex dave is a bloody laughing stock in the eu. perhaps perhaps if he stands close enough in paris on Friday hell meet a real primeminister.PUTIN .LOOK AND LEARN DAVE FOR ALL OUR BLOODY SAKES. WHAT A BLOODY WANKER.

    Like

  49. 110
    Anonymous says:

    “Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear”
    While mine host has Nigel 15 pints clear?

    Like


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