March 19th, 2014

Long Term Economic Graph
OBR Forecast 0.2% Surplus in 2018/19

The deficit will be 6.6% this year and 5.5% next year. That’s £108 billion this year, then £95 billion and £75 billion over the next two years. The OBR now forecasts a small surplus of 0.2% in 2018/19. Guido thinks these revised numbers will yet again be revised, but they’re strong enough to dangle in front of the voters in 2015.


139 Comments

  1. 1
    DtP says:

    Whoo hoo. Just in time for Balls to burn it….

  2. 2
    Mitch says:

    Wow

  3. 3
    Benny Fitzcheet says:

    What about me bennies?

  4. 4
    Mitch says:

    Turing won the war?? What was Churchill, Montgomery, Eisenhower and Zhukov doing?

  5. 5
    The Public says:

    Those are not strong figures, they’ve had almost 4 years now and the deficit has hardly decreased from when they came into power.

  6. 6
    Herr Balls says:

    Better flatlining than Stuka nosediving.

  7. 7
    Mitch says:

    Oh great. A global steel company worth £billions gets an energy bill cut of £100k’s but you and me get £15 a year.

    Great.

  8. 8
    Farage has lost my family and friend's vote says:

    I wonder what his fellow Kippers think?

  9. 9
    Shurdyrover says:

    They can dangle what they want in front of me but unless I get a referendum and Camoron gets dumped I will not vote for them.

  10. 10
    Mitch says:

    1p off a pint costing £3.50 or more.

    Is it Christmas?

  11. 11
    Anonymous says:

    I thought the deficit was to be eliminated by 2015. You only have to check the reality of the OBR’s previous predictions to know they couldn’t find their arse with both hands.

  12. 12
    We must not let Windmills shut down Britain to industry says:

    The jobs that manufacturing bring are worth much more. Germany is doing (has done for ages) the same.

  13. 13
    Ed Balls - Shallow Chancer says:

    WHERE’S JAW JOZBOURNE’S PLAN ‘B’ ??

  14. 14
    Anonymous says:

    That’s advanced stuff. They couldn’t find their hands.

  15. 15
    Owen Jones says:

    Ooh,what a bitch George Osborne really is.

    He’s only gone and copied my hairdo.

  16. 16
    Benny Fitz-Clements says:

    Wotcha, bruv.

    This don’t look good. Seems like the Chancellor is looking after the workers. Not the shirkers.

  17. 17
    Guy News Room says:

    George Galloway criticises Osborne for not reducing duty on tripe

  18. 18
    Moley says:

    Osborne needs to talk as soon as possible to Belgium’s finance Minister to discover the secret of his Country’s astounding financial success.

    According to figures from the US Treasury, Belgium holds $310Billion in US Treasuries and bought nearly $100Billion over a recent a two month period. That is, the whole of Belgium’s annual GDP was spent on US Treasuries over a two month period. (Data from US Treasury)

    Source Zero hedge

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-18/meet-brand-new-and-shocking-third-largest-holder-us-treasurys

    The explanation is a simple one; Van Rompuy is due to retire soon, and he obviously has his pension fund invested in dollars, not Euros.

  19. 19
    Mitch says:

    This “free” financial advice won’t be free at all – it’ll be added as a charge to the annuity.

  20. 20
    Incapable Vince, deputy Chief Cockroach says:

    I fucking hate George Osbourne.

  21. 21
    Let the entertainment Begin says:

    Time ED

    I thought it was Balls’ job to respond

  22. 22
    Fishy says:

    Just caught the end of the budget. Why is Weird Ed and Odd Balls looking pig sick?

  23. 23
    P l e b says:

    George Osborne should tax under-occupied rich homes to the skies, as Duncan Smith is taxing under-occupied poor ones

  24. 24
    Fight the Flab says:

    The lady behind Ed has two Bosoms.

  25. 25
    David Minibanana says:

    Give it up, Ed.

  26. 26
    T.B£iar - the People's Messiah says:

    Steady on !!!

  27. 27
    Balld mkII says:

    S’ppose Ed must have writ his speech yesterday as it has no relevance to the budget just delivered

  28. 28
    Mike Newland says:

    You wanna keepa da job OBR? You gotta showa lite atta de enda da tunnel. Boss sezza.

  29. 29
    milliwank says:

    milliband highlights the case of bankers paid £5million pounds a year benefitting … how many bankers got paid £5 million or more last year? I bet the answer is sub 100 perhaps only double digits … so the whole response is based on the economic implications for a handful of people? Talk about man of the people …

  30. 30
    6th form debating society says:

    Ed isn’t replying to the Budget speech. It’s just a rant.

  31. 31
    was it something I said? says:

    156bn down to 108bn is almost 50bn less. I agree 108bn is still a fucking outrage (thank you Brown) but I reckon 50bn less per year is something of a ‘win’.

  32. 32
    Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

    2.8% for a 1 year bond. LOL

    You can get 3% on a Santander bank account.

    Osborne needs to bring us inline with the United States by abolishing the telly tax & all taxes on petrol,electricity & gas.

  33. 33
    Joss Taskin says:

    Has anyone seen Ed Miliband ?

  34. 34
    Shooty* says:

    I’m trying to pay attention to Ed, but all I hear is “nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur”

  35. 35
    P l e b says:

    People like Osborne and Cameron don’t like to think that they come from long lines of fiddlers and tax avoiders. They believe that they are the sons of superior beings. Its all the oiks that are fiddling and they need to be brought to heel

  36. 36
    was it something I said? says:

    The £3.50 is made up of 25p for the landlord, £1.00 for PubCo, 50p for the brewery, 50p for overheads and 1.25p council tax, VAT, duty etc.

  37. 37
    Tony Smooth says:

    So true, so true.

  38. 38
    The office of Sarah and Gordoom McBrown {overseas} says:

    Tax is for twats

  39. 39
    cheche says:

    All this nod your head is so 6th form Common Room

  40. 40
    Great British Public says:

    Ed Miliband is absolutely dire.

  41. 41
    UKIP or bust says:

    What a prat this Goofy Ed is, does he think he’s at home showing off to mummy and daddy how he would ‘debate’ with the men when he grows up?

    How anybody can want him to run the country is beyond me.

  42. 42
    Shooty* says:

    Digging the deputy speaker. He’s rather good.

  43. 43
    Madge Hodge says:

    I’ll second that.

  44. 44
    Ed Mili says:

  45. 45
    thank God for small mercies says:

    The deficit would have been in the
    trillions had Balls been Chancellor
    for the past 4 years.

  46. 46
    His Party says:

  47. 47
    Trust Fund Chukka, from his Ibiza Hideaway says:

    Thirded

  48. 48
    i want one too says:

    Crimea got a referendum.

  49. 49
    His London Party says:

  50. 50
    PD77 says:

    Will there be a tax on PIEs?

  51. 51
    A right nasty bastard says:

    If there is a cost of living crisis, how come you can afford 5p for a fucking carrier bag?

  52. 52
    Harold Wilson says:

    I had a Swiss bank account. As Labour leader in 98% tax Britain it was almost compulsory. So no one minded I was fiddling me cash.

    And i made Marcia Williams a Lady. Tell me PLEB. Are you sad that all labour leaders are hypocrites/ Does it get you down?
    I see tony Benn has died. He was always moaning about how he was going to confiscate the Queen’s wealth. he never mentioned if he would be returning his own country estate to the voters too.

    Did he leave his vast estates to his children {inherited wealth that he campaigned against} or to the state?

    It will be in his will. Why don’t you email Hilary to check when the Stansgate lands are being over to council housing?

  53. 53
    Fog says:

    Milliband’s got nothing, so he’s babbling the mantras.

  54. 54
    Ed Miliband says:

    ENOUGH OF THIS ETON MESS…….TIME FOR SOME OXBRIDGE MESS ;)

  55. 55
    Time 2 CTRL, ALT & DEL says:

    MIllitwat says same old Tories – so many of us out here wish it was

  56. 56
    Ed Miliband says:

    Don’t worry lads, you’ll be fine in 2015, if you can just be bothered to get out of bed to vote.

  57. 57
    No one has seen Wallace and Ed in the same room says:

    What the buggery did half of Ed’s blatherings that have to do with budget?

  58. 58
    Anonymous says:

    15 minutess of pure shite from Milliband, not a comment about the budget.
    What a joker this guy is.
    Did he not trust Balls to respond ?

  59. 59
    is that really the best he can do? says:

    I agree.
    Pathetic effort by Miliband.

  60. 60
    Fatcha says:

    This lady is not for Turing.

  61. 61
    Idon'tneednodoctor says:

    I cannot believe the disgusting and useless response to the budget by Ed Miliband. I thought Ed Balls had hit rock bottom last time, but Miliband surpassed that.
    Miliband’s rant was that of a teenage tantrum.

  62. 62
    Harold Wilson says:

    Is that a man or a woman? Or aren’t we supposed to be able to tell?

  63. 63
    C.O.Jones says:

    His reply to the budget was read from a pre-scripted sheet. Did not relate to the budget at all.

  64. 64
    i remember when says:

    Bankers who presided over unprecedented financial scandals
    did brilliantly under Labour.

  65. 65
    Ed balls says:

    I see Milliband has conceded next years election by asking will the chancellor confirm that he will not reduce the 45p rate of tax in the next parliament, that means he believes Osborne will be chancellor in the next government. Freudian slip or what

  66. 66
    Me says:

    You trust your money in a Spanish bank?

  67. 67
    Rants are us says:

    So why was Balls stopped from replying?

    Ed’s rant was no better than the usual Balls rant.

  68. 68
    Idon'tneednodoctor says:

    3% on what amount?

  69. 69
    My router says:

    I have no idea. But I think he’s just rung the death knell for any growth in support for UKIP.

  70. 70
    Vlad the Loudhailer says:

    What an absolute farce Miliband’s response to the budget. God help us all if he gets elected next year.

  71. 71
    Me says:

    Too butch to be a man.

  72. 72
    was it something I said? says:

    Bankers getting paid £5 million quid a year will pay, what, at 45% tax, around 2.25 million quid in tax. And Osborne has moved the lower rate band to 10,500 from 10,000 so they’ll be (500 x 0.45) = 225 quid better off.

    Game changer for them.

    80% of the population better off by £100 quid and he wants to obsess about half a dozen people being a couple of hundred quid better off.

  73. 73
    Idon'tneednodoctor says:

    No posters in other parts of the country.

  74. 74
    Idon'tneednodoctor says:

    Are you welsh?

  75. 75
    Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

    The UK branch of Santander is fully covered by the FSA compensation scheme of £85,000.

  76. 76
    Owen Jokes says:

    Miliband’s was hilariously puerile.

  77. 77
    Jimmy Carr and Rufus Hound says:

    Fourthed.

  78. 78
    er says:

    Plastic bags- not very green.

  79. 79
    Commission only rep says:

    Interest – on your current account balance:

    • 1.00% AER/gross (variable) on balances from £1,000.
    • 2.00% AER/1.98% gross (variable) on balances from £2,000.
    • 3.00% AER/2.96% gross (variable) on balances from £3,000
    and up to a maximum of £20,000.

  80. 80
    was it something I said? says:

    Wrote the speech a week ago.

    Just ‘Eton mess’ and ‘Bullingdon’ – a party political broadcast by the Labour Party.

    A speech for The Mirror and the BBC to report. I think even The Grauniad will be embarrassed by it.

    It was nothing but ‘It’s not true, there is no recovery, it’s not fair, waaa, waaah, waaah’.

    It sounded like one of Alex Salmond’s speeches.

  81. 81
    The Diary of Owen Jones aged 13¾ says:

    I’m the teenage rant expert. They should have asked me to do it.

  82. 82
    the general public says:

    The OBR may be independent, but wrong forecasts derived independently are still, well, wrong!

    Happy to be corrected but have any of their forecasts been even nearly correct?

  83. 83
    Chris Moyles says:

    Wanna buy a motor?

  84. 84
    H Harmskids says:

    It will be a bum tax.

  85. 85
    A Recession Every Decade says:

    Bugger All money left to spend come the next inevitable recession (DO YOU COMPREHEND THAT BBC ECONOMIST AND POLITICAL REPORTERS!).

  86. 86
    BBC News and Propaganda Unit says:

    It was a towering response from a political giant.
    And we shall give Ed the detailed coverage and
    unstinting praise he deserves throughout the day.

  87. 87
    Ed Dafty, LimpDim MP, Climate Change Chieftain says:

    What about the pollution ?

  88. 88
    Shooty* says:

    Milibands reply was prefectly pitched at the average labour voting IQ.

  89. 89
    C.O.Jones says:

    Tony Benn said a lot over his long political career. Talk is cheap.

  90. 90
    Dave - the pervert's best friend says:

    Wasn’t he in the gay Hussars?

  91. 91
    Shooty* says:

    It’s a marketing and subliminal masterpiece:

    Blue collar shirt = worker
    Short hair = hard worker, none of this “long haired,lots of time for preening”namby pamny rich person bollox.
    Raised fist with bag in it: Solidarity, comrades.

    Ideally, she would have been 25 stone and burkha’d up to appeal to the two key demographics, but hey ho.

  92. 92
    P Bone says:

    FFS , you twat, get back in the corner and carry on wanking.

  93. 93
    Anonymous says:

    BBC’s Robert Peston seems to think basic rate of tax is 25%. What’s his job again?

  94. 94
    Fill in the blanks says:

    If something costs nothing, it is generally worth _______

  95. 95
    Táxpáyér says:

    Also announced welfare state for landowners “Help to Rent-Seek” to be expanded ’til at least 2020.

  96. 96
    Putin says:

    LOL!

  97. 97
    Táxpáyér says:

    >Seems like the Chancellor is looking after the workers. Not the shirkers.

    Looking after landowners (regardless of citizenship).

  98. 98
    Hidden Message says:

    Don’t you mean…

    Short Hair – Bean Flicker

  99. 99
    Cyril Smith says:

    Over my rotting corpse.

  100. 100
    Sick of the greed and lies(still) says:

    Don’t worry if you can’t. We will do your postal vote for you and not disturb your drinking, smoking and drug taking.

  101. 101
    SIZE 14 CARBON FOOTPRINT says:

    The only reason working people have been worse off is to pay for all the chav benefit brats spawned under labour ,the mass immigration and green taxes

  102. 102
    Táxpáyér says:

    Statement by UKIP leader Nigel Farage on the issue of the party’s approach to same-sex marriage:

    “UKIP’s objection to same sex marriage was two-fold. First, we did not think it should have been made a political priority at a time of many other pressing issues and pointed out that the measure had no mandate from the electorate.
    “Secondly we were concerned that because of the role of the European Court of Human Rights in British law that faith communities which had strong objections were at risk of being forced to conduct gay marriages.
    “The statement attributed to me yesterday was not made by me and not approved by me. It was a draft by a staff member that should never have been sent out.
    “There is an ongoing debate within UKIP about how we can protect faith communities from ultimately being compelled to conduct same sex marriages against their beliefs and their will. We note that some gay rights activists are already talking about taking legal action in Strasbourg to force this issue.”

  103. 103
    Táxpáyér says:

    Ground-rents are a still more proper subject of taxation than the rent of houses. A tax upon ground-rents would not raise the rents of houses. It would fall altogether upon the owner of the ground-rent, who acts always as a monopolist, and exacts the greatest rent which can be got for the use of his ground. More or less can be got for it according as the competitors happen to be richer or poorer, or can afford to gratify their fancy for a particular spot of ground at a greater or smaller expense. In every country the greatest number of rich competitors is in the capital, and it is there accordingly that the highest ground-rents are always to be found. As the wealth of those competitors would in no respect be increased by a tax upon ground-rents, they would not probably be disposed to pay more for the use of the ground. Whether the tax was to be advanced by the inhabitant, or by the owner of the ground, would be of little importance. The more the inhabitant was obliged to pay for the tax, the less he would incline to pay for the ground; so that the final payment of the tax would fall altogether upon the owner of the ground-rent.

    — Adam Smith , The Wealth of Nations, Book V, Chapter 2, Article I: Taxes upon the Rent of Houses

  104. 104
    Táxpáyér says:

    See above. All parties are nowadays anti capitalist, and just pro-rent-seeking.

  105. 105
    Shooty* says:

    Common Purpose Leftie Arse Kisser?

  106. 106
    Another Myth says:

    It’s a load of bollocks about plastic carrier bags lasting a thousand years. Common Logic says they are bad very bad for the environment.

    They last a max three years before they have crumbled to dust these days. Supposedly better for the environment to manufacture than paper too.

  107. 107
    BBC News and Propaganda Unit says:

    His job is to criticise the Tories and praise Labour.

  108. 108
    Táxpáyér says:

    Just like Northern Rock….
    and that went smooth as…

  109. 109
    PIGS Economic Reality says:

    Well done Brown and his Treasury team, Balls, Miliband and others. Big thanks from Blair and his government for standing by.

  110. 110
    PAYE is not for elite Beeboids says:

    You have to forgive him. He does not personally use PAYE, as a “self employed” Beeboid contractor his mind and pocket is elsewhere.

  111. 111
    Single Celled Organism says:

    I found it just right.

  112. 112
    Funambulist says:

    They can’t even spell Budgens right.

  113. 113
    BBC News and Propaganda Unit says:

    We will not be questioning Labour as to why Miliband
    responded to the Budget instead of Balls.
    It’s none of your business.
    Now shut up and pay your telly tax-this unrelenting
    propaganda doesn’t come cheap.

  114. 114
    Ed Balls says:

    Last time I bought some tacks I got more than 40 for a pound *confused face*

  115. 115
    IMHO says:

    It is run by a family of weasely crooks.

  116. 116
    Anonymous says:

    It’s Russian money.

  117. 117
    Ed Miliband says:

    What are you on about? I mentioned the Gold Standard.

  118. 118
    Prescott's chipolata says:

    Balls wasn’t stopped from replying. It is always the leader of the opposition that responds to the budget speech. Balls responded to the Autumn statement.

  119. 119
    Mitch says:

    I think he meant the 50p down to 45p. But your point is still valid.

  120. 120
    Not impressive says:

    He needs to get that correction printed fast.

    Sabotage? Piss Poor organisation or retreat?

  121. 121
    Someone says:

    George Osborne is a fraudster who is trying to make a recovery out of falling employment hours, nervous consumers, rising trade deficits, falling real disposable incomes, a woefully unbalanced economy, an EU in economic neutral, and China heading for a hard landing. He is trying to make sense out of building more houses in daft places when we are already overpopulated and should be growing more of our own food.

  122. 122
    Toxic Tories for Landowning Spongers, Parasites, Criminals, Peedos, & other Wasters says:

    All being done by increasing the national debt.

  123. 123
    A great big mess says:

    If the UK was in the Euro it would be fined for having a 6% deficit.

    EU farming and other subsidies should be cut back to be fair to other EU member countries.

  124. 124
    Monkey Nuts says:

    It’s difficult to see what any British chancellor can do when Brussels’ is the Organ grinder.

  125. 125
    Anonymous says:

    So in 2010 Osborne said he would take 5 years to eliminate the deficit.
    Now in 2014 he says it will take 5 years to eliminate the deficit.

    Splendid.

  126. 126
    non taxable pikey says:

    Turing, Bill Tutte and Tommy Flowers won the war.

  127. 127
    Sue Denim says:

    I really object to paying for plastic bags that do not last. Most of them fall apart after about 6 months, let alone three years. If I choose to pay for something, I want good quality.

  128. 128
    broderick crawford says:

    naah the gay hussar shut its doors years ago dave …. Elf and safety …….too many trotskyists at the trough

  129. 129
    broderick crawford says:

    coz of course that would make galloway a millionaire given the amount of it he talks …

  130. 130
    broderick crawford says:

    yeh ‘ course i trust dagoes. . . I put my money in an Icelandic bank seven years ago coz they wuz offering bleedin’ great interest rates
    and …. well …

  131. 131
    broderick crawford says:

    LORD ALAN OF SWEET-TOOTH SAYS

    20 grand limit ,that s no good to me

    I ve got upwards of 800 milllion … where do i put the rest ?
    (rhetorical question ).

  132. 132
    broderick crawford says:

    WHY DOESN T BALLS REPLY TO OSBORNE SPEECH .. WHY
    MILLIBAND ??

  133. 133
    broderick crawford says:

    that s Balls having his late elevenses with a cup of tea.

  134. 134
    broderick crawford says:

    Ronnie Barker in Ironmongers Shop : I want forkhandles

    Ronnie Corbett behind the counter : We got red candles green candles wax candles and oil candles .. which d yah want ?

  135. 135
    Keitho says:

    Would you?

  136. 136
    SIZE 14 CARBON FOOTPRINT says:

    Lasting a thousand years my arse the useless bloody thing I got this morning from Waitrose split before I got home , about a ten minute walk ,I had to chuck it straight in the bin.

  137. 137
    dave says:

    Sky News had that fat fuck white dee on earlier to give her informed budget views.

  138. 138
    SIZE 14 CARBON FOOTPRINT says:

    IF THEY STOPPED THE OVERSEAS AID BUDGET THEY WOULD SAVE SIXTY BILLION POUNDS OVER THE NEXT 5yrs ,

  139. 139
    parisclaims says:

    They don’t seem to have factored in that Balls will most likely be in control of the Nation’s credit card in just over year. Nor do they seem o have considered a base rate rise. Nor have they set aside the billions to keep the welfare dependent immigrants in the style to which they have become accustomed. This is just an exercise in wishful thinking


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