March 19th, 2014

Long Term Economic Graph
OBR Forecast 0.2% Surplus in 2018/19

The deficit will be 6.6% this year and 5.5% next year. That’s £108 billion this year, then £95 billion and £75 billion over the next two years. The OBR now forecasts a small surplus of 0.2% in 2018/19. Guido thinks these revised numbers will yet again be revised, but they’re strong enough to dangle in front of the voters in 2015.


139 Comments

  1. 1
    DtP says:

    Whoo hoo. Just in time for Balls to burn it….

    Like

    • 55
      Time 2 CTRL, ALT & DEL says:

      MIllitwat says same old Tories – so many of us out here wish it was

      Like

    • 65
      Ed balls says:

      I see Milliband has conceded next years election by asking will the chancellor confirm that he will not reduce the 45p rate of tax in the next parliament, that means he believes Osborne will be chancellor in the next government. Freudian slip or what

      Like

    • 85
      A Recession Every Decade says:

      Bugger All money left to spend come the next inevitable recession (DO YOU COMPREHEND THAT BBC ECONOMIST AND POLITICAL REPORTERS!).

      Like

      • 109
        PIGS Economic Reality says:

        Well done Brown and his Treasury team, Balls, Miliband and others. Big thanks from Blair and his government for standing by.

        Like

    • 95
      Táxpáyér says:

      Also announced welfare state for landowners “Help to Rent-Seek” to be expanded ’til at least 2020.

      Like

  2. 2
    Mitch says:

    Wow

    Like

  3. 3
    Benny Fitzcheet says:

    What about me bennies?

    Like

    • 16
      Benny Fitz-Clements says:

      Wotcha, bruv.

      This don’t look good. Seems like the Chancellor is looking after the workers. Not the shirkers.

      Like

      • 56
        Ed Miliband says:

        Don’t worry lads, you’ll be fine in 2015, if you can just be bothered to get out of bed to vote.

        Like

        • 100
          Sick of the greed and lies(still) says:

          Don’t worry if you can’t. We will do your postal vote for you and not disturb your drinking, smoking and drug taking.

          Like

      • 97
        Táxpáyér says:

        >Seems like the Chancellor is looking after the workers. Not the shirkers.

        Looking after landowners (regardless of citizenship).

        Like

  4. 4
    Mitch says:

    Turing won the war?? What was Churchill, Montgomery, Eisenhower and Zhukov doing?

    Like

  5. 5
    The Public says:

    Those are not strong figures, they’ve had almost 4 years now and the deficit has hardly decreased from when they came into power.

    Like

    • 6
      Herr Balls says:

      Better flatlining than Stuka nosediving.

      Like

    • 31
      was it something I said? says:

      156bn down to 108bn is almost 50bn less. I agree 108bn is still a fucking outrage (thank you Brown) but I reckon 50bn less per year is something of a ‘win’.

      Like

      • 45
        thank God for small mercies says:

        The deficit would have been in the
        trillions had Balls been Chancellor
        for the past 4 years.

        Like

  6. 7
    Mitch says:

    Oh great. A global steel company worth £billions gets an energy bill cut of £100k’s but you and me get £15 a year.

    Great.

    Like

    • 12
      We must not let Windmills shut down Britain to industry says:

      The jobs that manufacturing bring are worth much more. Germany is doing (has done for ages) the same.

      Like

  7. 8
    Farage has lost my family and friend's vote says:

    I wonder what his fellow Kippers think?

    Like

    • 69
      My router says:

      I have no idea. But I think he’s just rung the death knell for any growth in support for UKIP.

      Like

    • 92
      P Bone says:

      FFS , you twat, get back in the corner and carry on wanking.

      Like

    • 102
      Táxpáyér says:

      Statement by UKIP leader Nigel Farage on the issue of the party’s approach to same-sex marriage:

      “UKIP’s objection to same sex marriage was two-fold. First, we did not think it should have been made a political priority at a time of many other pressing issues and pointed out that the measure had no mandate from the electorate.
      “Secondly we were concerned that because of the role of the European Court of Human Rights in British law that faith communities which had strong objections were at risk of being forced to conduct gay marriages.
      “The statement attributed to me yesterday was not made by me and not approved by me. It was a draft by a staff member that should never have been sent out.
      “There is an ongoing debate within UKIP about how we can protect faith communities from ultimately being compelled to conduct same sex marriages against their beliefs and their will. We note that some gay rights activists are already talking about taking legal action in Strasbourg to force this issue.”

      Like

      • 120
        Not impressive says:

        He needs to get that correction printed fast.

        Sabotage? Piss Poor organisation or retreat?

        Like

  8. 9
    Shurdyrover says:

    They can dangle what they want in front of me but unless I get a referendum and Camoron gets dumped I will not vote for them.

    Like

  9. 10
    Mitch says:

    1p off a pint costing £3.50 or more.

    Is it Christmas?

    Like

    • 36
      was it something I said? says:

      The £3.50 is made up of 25p for the landlord, £1.00 for PubCo, 50p for the brewery, 50p for overheads and 1.25p council tax, VAT, duty etc.

      Like

  10. 11
    Anonymous says:

    I thought the deficit was to be eliminated by 2015. You only have to check the reality of the OBR’s previous predictions to know they couldn’t find their arse with both hands.

    Like

  11. 13
    Ed Balls - Shallow Chancer says:

    WHERE’S JAW JOZBOURNE’S PLAN ‘B’ ??

    Like

  12. 14
    Owen Jones says:

    Ooh,what a bitch George Osborne really is.

    He’s only gone and copied my hairdo.

    Like

  13. 17
    Guy News Room says:

    George Galloway criticises Osborne for not reducing duty on tripe

    Like

    • 129
      broderick crawford says:

      coz of course that would make galloway a millionaire given the amount of it he talks …

      Like

  14. 18
    Moley says:

    Osborne needs to talk as soon as possible to Belgium’s finance Minister to discover the secret of his Country’s astounding financial success.

    According to figures from the US Treasury, Belgium holds $310Billion in US Treasuries and bought nearly $100Billion over a recent a two month period. That is, the whole of Belgium’s annual GDP was spent on US Treasuries over a two month period. (Data from US Treasury)

    Source Zero hedge

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-18/meet-brand-new-and-shocking-third-largest-holder-us-treasurys

    The explanation is a simple one; Van Rompuy is due to retire soon, and he obviously has his pension fund invested in dollars, not Euros.

    Like

  15. 19
    Mitch says:

    This “free” financial advice won’t be free at all – it’ll be added as a charge to the annuity.

    Like

  16. 20
    Incapable Vince, deputy Chief Cockroach says:

    I fucking hate George Osbourne.

    Like

  17. 21
    Let the entertainment Begin says:

    Time ED

    I thought it was Balls’ job to respond

    Like

  18. 22
    Fishy says:

    Just caught the end of the budget. Why is Weird Ed and Odd Balls looking pig sick?

    Like

  19. 23
    P l e b says:

    George Osborne should tax under-occupied rich homes to the skies, as Duncan Smith is taxing under-occupied poor ones

    Like

    • 26
      T.B£iar - the People's Messiah says:

      Steady on !!!

      Like

    • 103
      Táxpáyér says:

      Ground-rents are a still more proper subject of taxation than the rent of houses. A tax upon ground-rents would not raise the rents of houses. It would fall altogether upon the owner of the ground-rent, who acts always as a monopolist, and exacts the greatest rent which can be got for the use of his ground. More or less can be got for it according as the competitors happen to be richer or poorer, or can afford to gratify their fancy for a particular spot of ground at a greater or smaller expense. In every country the greatest number of rich competitors is in the capital, and it is there accordingly that the highest ground-rents are always to be found. As the wealth of those competitors would in no respect be increased by a tax upon ground-rents, they would not probably be disposed to pay more for the use of the ground. Whether the tax was to be advanced by the inhabitant, or by the owner of the ground, would be of little importance. The more the inhabitant was obliged to pay for the tax, the less he would incline to pay for the ground; so that the final payment of the tax would fall altogether upon the owner of the ground-rent.

      — Adam Smith , The Wealth of Nations, Book V, Chapter 2, Article I: Taxes upon the Rent of Houses

      Like

    • 104
      Táxpáyér says:

      See above. All parties are nowadays anti capitalist, and just pro-rent-seeking.

      Like

  20. 24
    Fight the Flab says:

    The lady behind Ed has two Bosoms.

    Like

  21. 25
    David Minibanana says:

    Give it up, Ed.

    Like

  22. 27
    Balld mkII says:

    S’ppose Ed must have writ his speech yesterday as it has no relevance to the budget just delivered

    Like

  23. 28
    Mike Newland says:

    You wanna keepa da job OBR? You gotta showa lite atta de enda da tunnel. Boss sezza.

    Like

  24. 29
    milliwank says:

    milliband highlights the case of bankers paid £5million pounds a year benefitting … how many bankers got paid £5 million or more last year? I bet the answer is sub 100 perhaps only double digits … so the whole response is based on the economic implications for a handful of people? Talk about man of the people …

    Like

    • 64
      i remember when says:

      Bankers who presided over unprecedented financial scandals
      did brilliantly under Labour.

      Like

    • 71
      was it something I said? says:

      Bankers getting paid £5 million quid a year will pay, what, at 45% tax, around 2.25 million quid in tax. And Osborne has moved the lower rate band to 10,500 from 10,000 so they’ll be (500 x 0.45) = 225 quid better off.

      Game changer for them.

      80% of the population better off by £100 quid and he wants to obsess about half a dozen people being a couple of hundred quid better off.

      Like

  25. 30
    6th form debating society says:

    Ed isn’t replying to the Budget speech. It’s just a rant.

    Like

  26. 32
    Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

    2.8% for a 1 year bond. LOL

    You can get 3% on a Santander bank account.

    Osborne needs to bring us inline with the United States by abolishing the telly tax & all taxes on petrol,electricity & gas.

    Like

    • 66
      Me says:

      You trust your money in a Spanish bank?

      Like

      • 75
        Axe The Telly Tax & Religion & Kill All Eco-loons says:

        The UK branch of Santander is fully covered by the FSA compensation scheme of £85,000.

        Like

      • 115
        IMHO says:

        It is run by a family of weasely crooks.

        Like

      • 130
        broderick crawford says:

        yeh ‘ course i trust dagoes. . . I put my money in an Icelandic bank seven years ago coz they wuz offering bleedin’ great interest rates
        and …. well …

        Like

    • 68
      Idon'tneednodoctor says:

      3% on what amount?

      Like

      • 79
        Commission only rep says:

        Interest – on your current account balance:

        • 1.00% AER/gross (variable) on balances from £1,000.
        • 2.00% AER/1.98% gross (variable) on balances from £2,000.
        • 3.00% AER/2.96% gross (variable) on balances from £3,000
        and up to a maximum of £20,000.

        Like

        • 131
          broderick crawford says:

          LORD ALAN OF SWEET-TOOTH SAYS

          20 grand limit ,that s no good to me

          I ve got upwards of 800 milllion … where do i put the rest ?
          (rhetorical question ).

          Like

  27. 33
    Joss Taskin says:

    Has anyone seen Ed Miliband ?

    Like

  28. 34
    Shooty* says:

    I’m trying to pay attention to Ed, but all I hear is “nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur nur”

    Like

  29. 35
    P l e b says:

    People like Osborne and Cameron don’t like to think that they come from long lines of fiddlers and tax avoiders. They believe that they are the sons of superior beings. Its all the oiks that are fiddling and they need to be brought to heel

    Like

    • 37
      Tony Smooth says:

      So true, so true.

      Like

    • 38
      The office of Sarah and Gordoom McBrown {overseas} says:

      Tax is for twats

      Like

    • 52
      Harold Wilson says:

      I had a Swiss bank account. As Labour leader in 98% tax Britain it was almost compulsory. So no one minded I was fiddling me cash.

      And i made Marcia Williams a Lady. Tell me PLEB. Are you sad that all labour leaders are hypocrites/ Does it get you down?
      I see tony Benn has died. He was always moaning about how he was going to confiscate the Queen’s wealth. he never mentioned if he would be returning his own country estate to the voters too.

      Did he leave his vast estates to his children {inherited wealth that he campaigned against} or to the state?

      It will be in his will. Why don’t you email Hilary to check when the Stansgate lands are being over to council housing?

      Like

  30. 39
    cheche says:

    All this nod your head is so 6th form Common Room

    Like

  31. 40
    Great British Public says:

    Ed Miliband is absolutely dire.

    Like

    • 80
      was it something I said? says:

      Wrote the speech a week ago.

      Just ‘Eton mess’ and ‘Bullingdon’ – a party political broadcast by the Labour Party.

      A speech for The Mirror and the BBC to report. I think even The Grauniad will be embarrassed by it.

      It was nothing but ‘It’s not true, there is no recovery, it’s not fair, waaa, waaah, waaah’.

      It sounded like one of Alex Salmond’s speeches.

      Like

  32. 41
    UKIP or bust says:

    What a prat this Goofy Ed is, does he think he’s at home showing off to mummy and daddy how he would ‘debate’ with the men when he grows up?

    How anybody can want him to run the country is beyond me.

    Like

  33. 42
    Shooty* says:

    Digging the deputy speaker. He’s rather good.

    Like

  34. 44
    Ed Mili says:

    Like

    • 46
      His Party says:

      Like

      • 51
        A right nasty bastard says:

        If there is a cost of living crisis, how come you can afford 5p for a fucking carrier bag?

        Like

    • 49
      His London Party says:

      Like

      • 62
        Harold Wilson says:

        Is that a man or a woman? Or aren’t we supposed to be able to tell?

        Like

        • 71
          Me says:

          Too butch to be a man.

          Like

        • 91
          Shooty* says:

          It’s a marketing and subliminal masterpiece:

          Blue collar shirt = worker
          Short hair = hard worker, none of this “long haired,lots of time for preening”namby pamny rich person bollox.
          Raised fist with bag in it: Solidarity, comrades.

          Ideally, she would have been 25 stone and burkha’d up to appeal to the two key demographics, but hey ho.

          Like

      • 73
        Idon'tneednodoctor says:

        No posters in other parts of the country.

        Like

      • 87
        Ed Dafty, LimpDim MP, Climate Change Chieftain says:

        What about the pollution ?

        Like

      • 101
        SIZE 14 CARBON FOOTPRINT says:

        The only reason working people have been worse off is to pay for all the chav benefit brats spawned under labour ,the mass immigration and green taxes

        Like

      • 112
        Funambulist says:

        They can’t even spell Budgens right.

        Like

    • 70
      Vlad the Loudhailer says:

      What an absolute farce Miliband’s response to the budget. God help us all if he gets elected next year.

      Like

      • 78
        er says:

        Plastic bags- not very green.

        Like

        • 106
          Another Myth says:

          It’s a load of bollocks about plastic carrier bags lasting a thousand years. Common Logic says they are bad very bad for the environment.

          They last a max three years before they have crumbled to dust these days. Supposedly better for the environment to manufacture than paper too.

          Like

          • Sue Denim says:

            I really object to paying for plastic bags that do not last. Most of them fall apart after about 6 months, let alone three years. If I choose to pay for something, I want good quality.

            Like

          • SIZE 14 CARBON FOOTPRINT says:

            Lasting a thousand years my arse the useless bloody thing I got this morning from Waitrose split before I got home , about a ten minute walk ,I had to chuck it straight in the bin.

            Like

  35. 50
    PD77 says:

    Will there be a tax on PIEs?

    Like

  36. 53
    Fog says:

    Milliband’s got nothing, so he’s babbling the mantras.

    Like

  37. 54
    Ed Miliband says:

    ENOUGH OF THIS ETON MESS…….TIME FOR SOME OXBRIDGE MESS ;)

    Like

  38. 57
    No one has seen Wallace and Ed in the same room says:

    What the buggery did half of Ed’s blatherings that have to do with budget?

    Like

  39. 58
    Anonymous says:

    15 minutess of pure shite from Milliband, not a comment about the budget.
    What a joker this guy is.
    Did he not trust Balls to respond ?

    Like

  40. 61
    Idon'tneednodoctor says:

    I cannot believe the disgusting and useless response to the budget by Ed Miliband. I thought Ed Balls had hit rock bottom last time, but Miliband surpassed that.
    Miliband’s rant was that of a teenage tantrum.

    Like

    • 81
      The Diary of Owen Jones aged 13¾ says:

      I’m the teenage rant expert. They should have asked me to do it.

      Like

    • 86
      BBC News and Propaganda Unit says:

      It was a towering response from a political giant.
      And we shall give Ed the detailed coverage and
      unstinting praise he deserves throughout the day.

      Like

  41. 67
    Rants are us says:

    So why was Balls stopped from replying?

    Ed’s rant was no better than the usual Balls rant.

    Like

    • 76
      Owen Jokes says:

      Miliband’s was hilariously puerile.

      Like

      • 87
        Shooty* says:

        Milibands reply was prefectly pitched at the average labour voting IQ.

        Like

        • 111
          Single Celled Organism says:

          I found it just right.

          Like

        • 113
          BBC News and Propaganda Unit says:

          We will not be questioning Labour as to why Miliband
          responded to the Budget instead of Balls.
          It’s none of your business.
          Now shut up and pay your telly tax-this unrelenting
          propaganda doesn’t come cheap.

          Like

    • 118
      Prescott's chipolata says:

      Balls wasn’t stopped from replying. It is always the leader of the opposition that responds to the budget speech. Balls responded to the Autumn statement.

      Like

  42. 82
    the general public says:

    The OBR may be independent, but wrong forecasts derived independently are still, well, wrong!

    Happy to be corrected but have any of their forecasts been even nearly correct?

    Like

  43. 93
    Anonymous says:

    BBC’s Robert Peston seems to think basic rate of tax is 25%. What’s his job again?

    Like

  44. 121
    Someone says:

    George Osborne is a fraudster who is trying to make a recovery out of falling employment hours, nervous consumers, rising trade deficits, falling real disposable incomes, a woefully unbalanced economy, an EU in economic neutral, and China heading for a hard landing. He is trying to make sense out of building more houses in daft places when we are already overpopulated and should be growing more of our own food.

    Like

    • 122
      Toxic Tories for Landowning Spongers, Parasites, Criminals, Peedos, & other Wasters says:

      All being done by increasing the national debt.

      Like

    • 124
      Monkey Nuts says:

      It’s difficult to see what any British chancellor can do when Brussels’ is the Organ grinder.

      Like

  45. 123
    A great big mess says:

    If the UK was in the Euro it would be fined for having a 6% deficit.

    EU farming and other subsidies should be cut back to be fair to other EU member countries.

    Like

  46. 125
    Anonymous says:

    So in 2010 Osborne said he would take 5 years to eliminate the deficit.
    Now in 2014 he says it will take 5 years to eliminate the deficit.

    Splendid.

    Like

    • 138
      SIZE 14 CARBON FOOTPRINT says:

      IF THEY STOPPED THE OVERSEAS AID BUDGET THEY WOULD SAVE SIXTY BILLION POUNDS OVER THE NEXT 5yrs ,

      Like

  47. 139
    parisclaims says:

    They don’t seem to have factored in that Balls will most likely be in control of the Nation’s credit card in just over year. Nor do they seem o have considered a base rate rise. Nor have they set aside the billions to keep the welfare dependent immigrants in the style to which they have become accustomed. This is just an exercise in wishful thinking

    Like


Seen Elsewhere

Labour Failed Those Victims | Labour Uncut
We Cannot Ignore the Race Issue Here | Dan Hodges
74 MPs Who Back Stop Mills Motion | Speccie
Milibande | Ian Birrell
The True Meaning of Political Correctness Gone Mad | Speccie
Nigel, Nigel, Nigel! | Bloomberg
Bercow Blinks | Guardian
Speaker on the Ropes | Indy
Outgoing Clerk Slams Bercow – Row Goes Very Public | BBC
Darling Was Wrong on OBR | Speccie
Climate Change Cools Off | Washington Times


new-advert
Westbourne-Change-Opinion hot-button


Shaun Wright’s understatement about the Rotherham child abuse scandal…

“..I could have taken more action and probably dealt with this issue better.”



Owen Jones says:

We also need Zil lanes.


Tip off Guido
Web Guido's Archives

Subscribe me to:






RSS




AddThis Feed Button
Archive


Labels
Guido Reads
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,425 other followers