October 18th, 2012

David Blanchflower’s Terrible Tips

Whenever Gordon Brown’s favourite former appointee to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, David Blanchflower, makes a prediction, it’s probably a safe bet to expect the exact opposite to come true. Back in 2009 the out-of-luck economist looked into his evidently faulty crystal ball and predicted that unemployment would top 5 million if the Tories came into power. As of yesterday it stands at 2.53 million and falling. David is very nearly 100% wrong – quite a wide margin of error.

He forecast that unemployment would surge past 3 million to 3.4 million in 2010. It peaked at 2.5 million in 2010.

On Tuesday Blanchflower was at it again, wagering that the new set of unemployment figures would bring bad news:

Lo and behold once again the opposite happened, with unemployment dropping by 50,000 to below 8%. Keep trying David, you might get one right eventually…


125 Comments

  1. 1
    Tom Watson says:

    It’s terrible all this scandal of inappropriateness at the BBC in the 60s and 70s, all the stories are coming out now.

    Apparently whenever Alan Freeman presented Top of the Pops, one or two girls would go home covered in Fluff…

    Like

    • 4
      Jon Benjamin says:

      What the fuck is wrong with these Chosen cocks?

      Like

      • 22

        We all know that economists never ever predict major events like credit crunches, systemic collapse and financial ruin before it happens.

        We all know that politicians willfully ignore, gloss over and outright deny terrible situations and events that will make them look bad.

        We all know that philosophers will ponder, witter on and naval gaze forever until the problem they are contemplating either kills them or goes away on its own.

        Why then is it a good idea to let privileged public school millionaires with Oxford PPE’s like Ed Balls anywhere near running the countries finances, especially when they have already had 13 years fucking it up with idiots like Blanchflower.

        Labour is the problem, not the solution.

        Like

        • 31
          Osama the Nazarene says:

          Your blog great value for money these last couple of days.

          What an unbelievably ignorant economist “Danny” is!

          Like

          • P. Doff says:

            He was OK playing in the middle for Spurs and Northern Irishland, but like all footballers, they make idiots of themselves later in life as pundits.

            Like

          • lojolondon says:

            Point is not how damn stupid he is – the point is how the gullible, left-facing media keep giving him the oxygen of publicity, no matter how wrong, or how often!! There are no standards, if someone comes out criticising the Tories and predicting ‘failure for cuts’ then they just print and be damned!

            Like

        • 55
          Bill D'Sarse says:

          “We all know that economists never ever predict major events like credit crunches, systemic collapse and financial ruin before it happens.”

          Unlike St Vince of Cable who has predicted 17 of the last 3 recessions.

          Like

    • 13
      Smashey says:

      Not Arff!

      Like

    • 35
      Anonymous says:

      The 2.53m unemployed figure is bogus. There are loads unemployed, just look at your own family and friends. Even before May 2010 the real unemployed were over 6 million.

      If government is telling the truth about the number of unemployed then benefits bill will not go up and up.

      Like

      • 80
        Anonymous says:

        Nope,sorry. Just had a count up. Wife +4 grown up kids,all working (including spouses). Even eldest Grandson has paper round. Will admit times are togh as all 3 daughters and one spouse have been laid off in last 18 months but all managed to find alternative employment within a few weeks. Sorry to say I am the only one out of work, I was Self Employed but due to a Stroke a few years ago that is no longer possible, still if anyone needs a 60 year old village idiot then I am your man.

        Like

        • 98
          lojolondon says:

          Yes, we need one in parliament please. No need to be smart, just honest, principled and not scared to go against the flow. Are you up for it?

          Like

      • 121
        JH says:

        Yeah, just had a count of all friends/family/acquaintances ages 18-60.

        Total number unemployed=0.

        Get on your fucking bike.

        Like

    • 39
      Anonymous says:

      Better way of looking at unemployment to look at total benefits government pays. Even that will not take account of all unemployed as a lot aren’t on benefits.

      Real number of unemployed is over 7 million. If government wants to be honest it could always tell how much benefits it paid each month.

      Like

      • 47
        The House of Commons says:

        If government wants to be honest’…

        LOL, LOL, Hear Hear and Right Honourably LOL again.

        Wonderful. How do you think of these things?

        Like

      • 56

        LMFAO – “if the Government wants to be honest”

        Dave had an element of “you’ve never had it so good” with these figures at PMQs and this supposed full employment feel good factor does not chime with all of us plebs outside of the Westminster circus

        Statistical bollocks and the accompanying self-congratulatory dogma tells us that the civil service, politicians and media think we are all so stupid to believe this crap.

        Ministers should get off their corpulent arses and go talk to their constituents and not the toady sycophants that flutter in their surgeries.

        Like

        • 65
          Anonymous says:

          Just write to you MP and ask him / her how can we have record number of people in employment, falling unemployment and total benefits paid is going up and up.

          Whole thing is bogus.

          Like

          • lojolondon says:

            Because there are more people in the country every day. More employed, more unemployed, and more sick, lame and lazy. To be fair, I expect that unemployment as a % is falling, not total unemployment.

            Like

      • 89
        Paleo says:

        Seemples! Using your logic, cut number of claimants by 75% – unemployed drops to 2.5 million overnight….

        Like

    • 40
      The BBC says:

      We are baffled and enraged by the fall in unemployment.

      Like

      • 69
        What do you expect honesty from a politician. says:

        The plebs are even baffled being told we have a fall in unemployment, the plebs would like to know where all these jobs are, the plebs think that there is a fall in unemployment but it’s not in this country

        Like

        • 101
          dorothywilson says:

          Unfortunately the jobs that those you label “plebs” used to do have gone to all those immigrants who came flooding in as a result of Labour’s open door immigration policy. Even more unfortunately many of those “plebs” received such a poor education under Labour that they are unable to compete with the immigrants.

          Like

        • 109
          Anonymous says:

          everyone talks, plebs royalty and untouchables. some people just don’t want to become aware and other people want to keep secrets.

          The issue seems to be resident in both the irrational worlds of awareness and the rational world of knowledge.

          Like

    • 41
      A Pleb says:

      His brother Danny played a much better game than him.

      Like

    • 79
      Head of Corporate HR and Propaganda.... says:

      All this talk about Jimmy Savile being a pedophile and the BBC covering it up is ridiculous.

      I’ve now reviewed all of the photos of the women making allegations about him in the newspapers, and not one of them looks remotely underage.

      Perhaps we can draw a line under this now.

      …..SNIFF!!!!………… Jeez I’m GOOD! That mike is off isn’t it? I’d hate your teacher to know where you are, my dear.

      Like

    • 106
      Insider says:

      Girls?

      Like

  2. 2
    Tristram Smallbore-ffipps junior says:

    Simply proves the old rule that if you put 10 economists in a room you will get 20 opinions.

    Like

    • 7
      Pawn Sandwich says:

      How many predicted the credit crunch. A calamity of supertanker proportions was heading our way and none of the highly paid professionals saw it until it was right on top of us. Economics a science? I think not.

      Like

      • 8
        Pawn Sandwich says:

        And the same applied to Eurozone borrowing, spending and borrowing again.

        Like

        • 12
          Tristram Smallbore-ffipps junior says:

          Unfair. Goldman Sachs saw the borrowing problem so clearly in Greece that they created off balance sheet vehicles and accounting specifically to allow Greece to hide its levels of debt from the EU.

          Like

          • Short sighted copper with a tayser says:

            I’m told Vince did, apparently. I believe that’s why he had a halo in the days after the crunch.

            Like

      • 10
        Lord Stansted says:

        Well, I did. I sold everything Christmas 2006. You had to be an idiot not to spot from the up-up-and-away markets that something nasty was coming our way.

        Like

      • 37
        Anonymous says:

        If government is telling the truth about the number of unemployed then benefits bill will not go up and up. There are loads who aren’t taken as unemployed even though they want a job but hasn’t one.

        Also deficit has gone up by almost 25% compared to last year, where is the money going?

        Real number of unemployed in UK now is around 7 million.

        Like

        • 50
          An employer says:

          True. Its suprisingly easy to recruit people for casual work if they are working already in the black economy, but well neigh impossible if they are signing on.

          Like

  3. 3
    nellnewman says:

    But you said it all you see ‘ he’s a bosom pal of gordon brown’

    gordon brown, balls and their circle have a frankly scary lack of understanding of even basic economics. You wouldn’t trust them with a 5 year old’s pocket money let alone a proper budget.

    L

    Like

    • 25
      fruitcake says:

      or it’s the curse of jonah at work second hand.

      Like

    • 86
      Jack Daw says:

      How does such a useless economist manage to make a living? Who employs him? Is he teaching the next generation how to be useless economists?

      Like

      • 99
        Friedman Fan says:

        The New Statesman employs him. Enough said.

        Like

        • 105
          David G. Blanchflower says:

          The pay over there is just peanuts. Most of the time I just sit here in my ivy covered tower here at Dartmouth and watch you plebs messing things up on the other side of the pond.

          Like

  4. 5
    Albert hall says:

    Maybe he could forecast that I won’t win the lottery. Or that Gordon Brown will live to a ripe old age claiming his pension.

    Like

  5. 6
    C Jones says:

    Even worse, his speciality as an economist is the labour market no?

    Like

    • 9
      nellnewman says:

      The labour market? Really? labour party won’t be much interested in him then – their main focus is on expanding immigration and the numbers of folks on benefits.

      Like

  6. 11
    Screwed taxpayer says:

    How much is this useless cnut paid? By us? How much will his inflation proofed gold plated pension be?

    Like

  7. 14
    Polly's Villa in Tuscany says:

    Blanchflower was hopeless at the BoE and has no idea now. He’s just a Labour party shill. Listening to him is like taking economic advice from Bozo the Clown.

    Like

  8. 15
    Who'd have thunked it? says:

    Shock! Horror! Man who uses Twitter (and has a keyboard with broken ‘shift’ and full-stop keys) is a twit.

    Like

  9. 16
    Bert Camus says:

    Just rejoice the guy was not predicting economic recovery and full employment .

    Like

  10. 17
    Richard Murphy says:

    I thought I was The Special One

    Like

  11. 19
    RobvsNature says:

    Why in the name of god is this blithering idiot wheeled onto Newsnight regularly as some kind of economic sage. And if I was studying economics at Dartmouth I’d be asking for a refund.

    Like

  12. 23
    bergen says:

    And yet he’s still wheeled out as if his opinions matter. God knows what his students make of him. Some academics live on another planet entirely.

    Like

  13. 24
    Tax is theft says:

    Blanchflower and Flanders are always wrong but it doesn’t stop the BBC giving them plenty of airtime.

    Like

  14. 26
    JBones says:

    That lower case i at the beginning, that makes it into fully-fledged comedy. He’s doing it on purpose, he’s practically a sitcom character.

    Like

  15. 27
    Gordon Brown says:

    I always called on the Best Advisors … Mr Mugaby, Mr kim, Merv, that guy from the US, the Remedial Maffs Class at CurrrCuddeeee Acadameee, Big Al . . . . Eddy Babe – you name them, I had them.

    Like

  16. 28
    Anonymous says:

    Blanchflower never fails to give me a laugh with his gloomy predictions & his pompous manner! I’ve noticed that his forecasts are wrong too!

    Like

  17. 28
    Terrible But True says:

    Lucky some media don’t make a habit of turning to him for a quote to bash whoever the are impartially gunning for to help those they are impartially rooting for.

    That would be too unique.

    Like

  18. 34
    Tay King-dePisse says:

    Maybe one of these days Blanchfromhorror will be right, at least from a personal standpoint– HE’LL be let go, and unable to find new work; can it come soon enough?

    Like

  19. 36
    Question Brine says:

    Tonight’s Question Time is set to have the most boring panel in its entire history.

    Deputy First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon MSP, leader of the Scottish Conservative Party Ruth Davidson MSP, Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran MP, Daily Telegraph Scottish Editor Alan Cochrane and Mark Serwotka, General Secretary of the PCS trade union.

    Like

  20. 43
    Sign of things to come says:

    Newsweek, the 80-year-old US current affairs magazine, is to become an online-only publication. The last print edition will be on 31 December, reflecting the trend for newspapers and magazines to move online as traditional advertising declines.

    Like

    • 52
      JH says:

      Rubs hands.

      Come on Guardian, go online only. You know you want to.

      So do the people giving you £50 million a year so that you may affect the patina of viability, like the glorified fucking student gap year project you are.

      Like

      • 58
        Guardian & BBC says:

        We will triumph!!!!!

        Like

        • 61
          JH says:

          You’ve been triumphing in having an utterly disproportionate influence on public discourse and ‘acceptable’ opinion for about four decades now.

          Time the pendulum swung back in your smug fucking faces, and you got a taste of what people really think of you and your sanctimony.

          Like

          • Don't exaggerate says:

            Is that why there was a Conservative govt between 1979 and 1997?

            Like

          • JH says:

            That was despite the BBC’s efforts, and they had not refined their current techniques of spending more time on Labour’s reaction to policy than the policy itself.

            Besides, for much of that period they were more focused on enabling kiddy fiddling and boobie grabbing by their ‘talent’.

            Not to worry – I’m sure you’ll get another ‘Champagne bottles in corridors’ moment.

            Like

          • English Heretic says:

            Yes it really does grate on your nerves that constant BBC agenda. Mind you, the F** off 40 year pendulum is changing direction, and looks set to the bastards out in the next 10-15 years max. Worth living to see.

            Like

  21. 49
    Aunty Matter says:

    Blanchflower is a mong.

    Like

  22. 57
  23. 60
    Hang The Bastards says:

    Tosser

    Like

  24. 62
    Dianne Abbott says:

    I want Gordons love child

    Like

  25. 64
    Ethelred the Unread says:

    As a New Statesman subscriber it amazes me how many people who read the magazine think Danny knows something about economics. He’s not an economist – he’s a Labour Party cheerleader – with only two ideas – spend and borrow. Like – how did we get into this mess in the first place?

    Like

    • 70
      Dave Camoron (one-term PM) says:

      How did we get into this mess? Beats me, but hopefully I’ll get us out of it by borrowing an additional six hundred billion pounds by 2015.

      Toodle pip!

      Like

  26. 71
    Anonymous says:

    If he was 100% wrong unemployment would be zero.
    Bad stats don’t reflect well on an ex financial whizz.

    Like

  27. 74
    Malcolm Redfellow says:

    Yeah, but there’s something dodgy about the stats, or at least the way they are presented.

    Pity we don’t have them also expressed as “full-time equivalent” (which is the norm for every operation in which I’ve ever been involved).

    What we do know is that 88.000 full-time jobs were added — but the bulk of the “improvement” was 125,000 part-timers. We now have 8,129,000 part-time jobs in the employment total — that’s 27.5% of all jobs, and an all-time record, both as a number and as a proportion.

    Like

    • 82
      curtons says:

      It is now accepted practice for Governments to spin figures to suite their own agendas. I expect somebody that has to do two or even three part time jobs to pay the bills is counted as 2 or 3 jobs created. Lies, damned lies and…

      Like

  28. 75
    Moussa Koussa Mark 1 says:

    Seventeen London fire stations told to close……Boris on holiday

    Like

  29. 90
    Red Ed says:

    Making fun of our friends will be a hate crime when we win power.

    Printing money makes you rich, Gordon said so and he’s a genius, plus if I ever questioned him, his eyes turned red and he would throw things.

    Like

    • 92
      Anonymous says:

      The LieBore party complaining about the Tories not handling the economic disaster in the right, way, are the political equivalent of Apple starting to sue people for dying because Steve Jobs did it first.

      Fucking useless, hand wringing, lying millionaire shite bags.

      Like

  30. 91
    jgm2 says:

    The Maximum Imbecile searched the planet for Blanchflower to be on his ‘independent’ MPC.

    Blanchflower’s answer to everything is lower interest rates and more borrowing. He did a piece over at the Grauniad a year or two ago where he suggested that the best economic policy would be to inflate away all our debts. Even the bedwetters tore into him.

    Like

  31. 93
    Blanchflower smanchflower says:

    Blanchflower does not predict, those are just things on his wish-list. Like all socialists, he’d rather see unemployment rise just so he can blame tories.

    Like

  32. 94
    Argonrinsing says:

    Just what have people got against the Labour Party?

    Like

  33. 96
    michael says:

    At PMQ’s , the PM said 900,000 apprenticeships… if these state sponsored apprentices account for most of the “1 million” new jobs that the PM was lauding the economy isn’t really creating much self sustaining ‘new’ work at all.
    There’s few if any clues in the statistics – its all in the spin.

    Like

  34. 103
    Gordon Balls says:

    Blanchflower needs some work experience. All that time in his Ivory Tower with his books and no real world experience. He might as well be an alien from another planet.

    Like

  35. 107
    blub says:

    They should get Will Hutton back on more often to provide some balance.

    Like

  36. 108
    Anonymous says:

    David or Danny?

    Like

  37. 110
    keredybretsa says:

    Perhaps it is his job on the line?

    Like

  38. 111
    Oh bugger, I deleted all my cookies AGAIN. says:

    I thought he was footballer.

    Like

  39. 112
    Gooey Blob says:

    I can’t remember Blanchflower ever getting a single thing right while he sat on the MPC. He was always a bit of a Jonah. Perhaps if Gordon Brown had spent less listening to him the UK might not be in the mess it is now.

    If David Blanchflower says one thing, you can be 100% sure the opposite is true.

    Like

  40. 114
    Anonymous says:

    A prediction of 5m that ends being at 2.5m is not 100% wrong. It is 50% wrong.
    Schoolboy howlers demean your site, Guido.

    Like

  41. 115
    John says:

    The man is a complete clown. What’s hilarious is that he continues to pump out his absurd articles as if he has a shred of credibility or even a demonstrable record of being right about a thing.

    This is, as you say, the man who cheered Gordon Brown on as he set about fucking up Government spending and created a debt legacy that not only our children but grandchildren will be paying off.

    My neighbour’s dog knows more about economics than this asshat

    Like

  42. 116
    Sir Crispin Slapentickell says:

    This man is useless, a whole shower. That’s what I say!

    Like

  43. 119
    Greychatter says:

    But people listen to these “Experts” and they get paid by the taxpayer, small wonder the country is in such a Mess.

    Maybe Danny Blanchflower ( footballer) could have made a better prediction if he were still alive.

    Like

  44. 124
    Anonymous says:

    I think David’s utter certainty is a dead giveaway! In any case, when it comes to economic predictions, financial controls etc, don’t you need to average the input from a squillion economists before you can get a reliably wrong answer?

    Like


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