The 2015 New Coalition

Cameroons like to remind the disgruntled Tory right of a simple bit of coalition electoral arithmetic: Tories on 34% + LibDems on 8% = 42%, just about enough to form a government again in 2015. Well UKIP have been also been polling between 6% to 10% for over a year now. If those right-of-centre voters could be brought back into the Conservative Party embrace they would have a good chance of forming a majority government. UKIP have no MPs in Westminster under first past the post, they do however have plenty of voters for Westminster elections.

During the 2010 general election readers of this blog raised over £15,000 to “Get Balls Out” by supporting the Tory candidate in Morley & Outwood. On election night Balls survived by a mere thousand or so votes, fewer votes than the UKIP candidate received. UKIP HQ called Guido on the night and said if they had known it was going to be so close they would have stood their candidate down. Perhaps a formal pre-election pact is politically impossible. However the Eurozone is likely to fall apart in the near future, new arrangements will be put in place by the EU radically altering the existing structure. On that basis the government will be entitled to bring the EU referendum promised by both governing parties. If the LibDems refuse to countenance a referendum the Conservatives need only to promise an immediate referendum within a year of the general election to bring about an implicit electoral pact with UKIP.

If you think this is improbable you could be surprised. The Conservative Party’s main internal Thatcherite pressure group, Conservative Way Forward, has quietly changed its constitution to allow UKIP members to join. The unhappy experience of coalition with the LibDems has opened the eyes of many on the Tory right to the electoral logic of coalition with UKIP. Dan Hannan isn’t the only one who wants it to happen



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Tim Farron is asked by GQ how he will be remembered:

“I won’t be. So there’s no point in worrying about how you’d like to be remembered at all.”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

EU CABINET GUIDE: WHITTO MOVES UP, GOVE TORN EU CABINET GUIDE: WHITTO MOVES UP, GOVE TORN
PROTESTER CHUCKS DILDO AT MINISTER PROTESTER CHUCKS DILDO AT MINISTER
LEAVE 9 POINTS AHEAD SINCE DAVE’S DEAL LEAVE 9 POINTS AHEAD SINCE DAVE’S DEAL
VENEZUELA FORCED TO FLY IN PLANELOADS OF CASH VENEZUELA FORCED TO FLY IN PLANELOADS OF CASH
SILLY SAUSAGE: TORY MP’S COMMONS DOUBLE ENTENDRE SILLY SAUSAGE: TORY MP’S COMMONS DOUBLE ENTENDRE
SRAELI EX-AMBASSADOR ‘LATE NIGHT VISITS’ SCANDAL BREWING SRAELI EX-AMBASSADOR ‘LATE NIGHT VISITS’ SCANDAL BREWING
UKIP WARNS OF RISK OF TURKEY JOINING EU UKIP WARNS OF RISK OF TURKEY JOINING EU
HIGHEST-EARNING MP DIDN’T NOTICE £400,000 INCOME HIGHEST-EARNING MP DIDN’T NOTICE £400,000 INCOME
BORIS’ NEW BALDNESS-BATTLING BARNET BORIS’ NEW BALDNESS-BATTLING BARNET
GUIDO’S FASHION TIPS: GET THE GRASSROOTS OUT UNIFORM GUIDO’S FASHION TIPS: GET THE GRASSROOTS OUT UNIFORM
BORIS AND FARAGE PAN DAVE’S RED CARD BORIS AND FARAGE PAN DAVE’S RED CARD
WHEN CAMERON AND OSBORNE LAUGHED AT A ‘RED CARD’ WHEN CAMERON AND OSBORNE LAUGHED AT A ‘RED CARD’
SADIQ DUCKS CITY AIRPORT ROW SADIQ DUCKS CITY AIRPORT ROW
DIRE POST-DEAL PAPERS FOR PM DIRE POST-DEAL PAPERS FOR PM
FABBERS’ VOMIT-INDUCING EUROPHILES REVEALED FABBERS’ VOMIT-INDUCING EUROPHILES REVEALED
UNION BARON: “ALL THE TORIES ARE AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE, THEY SHOULD BE TAKEN OUT AND SHOT” UNION BARON: “ALL THE TORIES ARE AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE, THEY SHOULD BE TAKEN OUT AND SHOT”
STELLA THE ‘HASH SMOKING MOROCCAN TOURIST’ STELLA THE ‘HASH SMOKING MOROCCAN TOURIST’
CORBYN BROTHER’S BIZARRE RESPONSE TO DEATH OF MAN AND 4 YEAR OLD SON: “LOL” CORBYN BROTHER’S BIZARRE RESPONSE TO DEATH OF MAN AND 4 YEAR OLD SON: “LOL”
BORIS: DAVE’S DEAL NOT GOOD ENOUGH BORIS: DAVE’S DEAL NOT GOOD ENOUGH
9 SPECIFIC DEMANDS DAVE WANTED FROM BRUSSELS 9 SPECIFIC DEMANDS DAVE WANTED FROM BRUSSELS
CRUZ TRUMPS THE DONALD IN IOWA CRUZ TRUMPS THE DONALD IN IOWA
Crowdfunding “Brexit the Movie” Crowdfunding “Brexit the Movie”
CORBYN SURGES AHEAD OF FOOT CORBYN SURGES AHEAD OF FOOT
HOW FRIENDS OF THE EARTH DODGE CHARITY REGULATIONS HOW FRIENDS OF THE EARTH DODGE CHARITY REGULATIONS
CORBYN AIDE: I THINK WE SHOULD SHOOT WOODCOCK CORBYN AIDE: I THINK WE SHOULD SHOOT WOODCOCK
TEQUILA SCAMMERS: LANSMAN’S LATE NIGHT SECRET ELECTION TEQUILA SCAMMERS: LANSMAN’S LATE NIGHT SECRET ELECTION
Comments & Readership Comments & Readership
MCDONNELL’S PARTIALLY PUBLISHED TAX RETURN MCDONNELL’S PARTIALLY PUBLISHED TAX RETURN
COCKNEY DONALD TRUMP COCKNEY DONALD TRUMP