May 3rd, 2012

London GLA Projections

YouGov, who were the most accurate pollsters in London 4 years ago, have produced projections for the Greater London Assembly. The good news is they expect the BNP to be wiped out, the bad news is that London could be looking at a Red-Green majority in the assembly trying to thwart Boris on cost cutting. In Germany Red-Green governed cities have veered to the far left.

It is still close and with the Tories polling double digits behind Labour since the budget, Boris has to overcome a tough national polling deficit. Paddick, despite being a better candidate than he was in 2008, is not expected to poll in double digits and UKIP are projected to cement their claim to be the third party gaining two seats and equaling the LibDems. The graphic below shows how London became Boris Town in 2008:

The suburbs besieged inner London to take control of City Hall from Red Ken…


131 Comments

  1. 1
    Not Ken Again says:

    Anyone but Ken!

  2. 2
    Labourunionsbbc we are one says:

    It is all down to London’s horrors who gets elected.

  3. 3
    Kensnout says:

    Not Ken the Hunt again. Krackers!

  4. 4

    If UKIP get 3 seats and beats LibDems will Clegg finally *uck off??

  5. 5
    Dan says:

    Watermelonistan.

  6. 6
    Woy Hodgson says:

    Bowis! Bowis! Bowis!

  7. 7
    Dick Desmond says:

    Polls schmolls. Be a luv Guido, pop round and giv me knob a quik buff up.

  8. 8
    Dave says:

    Dave?

  9. 9
    Quisling says:

    I cant see Karachi on that map?

  10. 10
    londonstatto says:

    The Mayor only needs 9 votes to pass his budget.

  11. 11
    Wayne Rooney says:

    morning baldy!

  12. 12
    slaphead Dave says:

    Guido, can I borrow your cross hairs? I seem to be lustrous on top this morning.

  13. 13
    Ink Blot Test says:

    I see a wolf with big claws.

  14. 14
    Miliband is confident! says:

    https://twitter.com/#

  15. 15
    Hattie's body armour says:

    Who gives a shit? Londonistan is now a lost cause and one can only hope that the civil war eradicates most of the undesirables.

  16. 16
    maggie the dog says:

    Great London deserve another Starlin

  17. 17
    Anonymous says:

    I’d rather have Ken and Labour than the Con-Dem’s. Cutting too much, too far, too quickly.

  18. 18
    Miliband is confident! says:

  19. 19

    Just think what they could have achieved with a candidate that Labour actually support.

    Poor choice in Ken. Eddie Izzard could have been running up the steps to be mayor tomorrow.

  20. 20
    Aden says:

    I hear London has a drought, riots and crime wave. So at least the residents feel at home.

  21. 21
    Sarko says:

    that you Boris?

  22. 22
    David Miliband says:

    You are Ed Miliband and i claim my £5!

  23. 23
    Loungelizard says:

    Mincing Bill, mincing.

  24. 24
    suissebob says:

    “the bad news is that London could be looking at a Red-Green majority in the assembly thwarting Boris on cost cutting.”

    Bollocks. I looked up what powers assembly members have this morning and to do anything requires a TWO-THIRDS majority.

  25. 25

    Got your “far right media ruined my campaign” exit speech ready Ken?
    Save the tears for the end bit where you blame Thatcher.

  26. 26
    New World Orderer Dave says:

    Don’t forget the heat wave – I heard it from the Met Office.

  27. 27

    Not in those red thigh high boots he wouldn’t be.

  28. 28
    V1le Labour ruined my Country says:

    One of the great pleasures in life is that I never have to experience Londonistan again. The question is, is that perverted, fat oily slug Tom Watson a fit and proper person to be an MP? The answer is obviously no so why is he able to continue?

  29. 29
    Abdul Al too many names says:

    but I have 10.

  30. 30
    Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

    The map basically represents the desirability of areas to live in London. The shittier they are the higher proportion of the vote goes to Ken

  31. 31
    rick says:

    +1

  32. 32
    The last Jack Straw says:

    Via Diego Garcia?

  33. 33
    LibLabCon=scum says:

    “he good news is they expect the B*P to be wiped out”

    That’s “good news” how, exactly?

  34. 34
    Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

    One has to ask the same question about Keith Vaz and Handycock

  35. 35
    Sailor on Shore Leave says:

    PARTYYYY TIME!

  36. 36
    Gordon Brown says:

    two-thirds is approximately 50%

  37. 37
    Ah! Monika (Mail) says:

    “If someone in our house says one thing and does another….we call it doing a Cameron “

  38. 38
    Quisling says:

    Yes I heard that as I was rowing to the standpipe

  39. 39
    Mecca Bingo says:

    That’s a nice graphic of the Beacon of Islam Guido.

  40. 40
    Marine Le Pen says:

    Makes room for me.

  41. 41
    BBC 70's show says:

    The ice age is coming!
    Self sufficiency is the only way to survive.

  42. 42
    Anonymous says:

    Like attracts like so they say.

  43. 43
    One of Labour's beloved Muzzie immigrunts says:

    Me and wives will use our 590 postal votes to be supportings Ken. Then we take daughters (who also vote despite being no olders than 7) to local female genital mutilations clinic that Ken will build. We is so pleased Labour now have this policies.

  44. 44

    Over the 13 years of the last Labour government they did NOT deliver one of their six core values – social justice, strong community and strong values, reward for hard work, decency, rights matched by responsibilities.

    Miliband’s solution for hard-working families is to get us all deeper into debt than we have ever been before and drive investment growth money from these shores.

    If 44% of Londoners have memories so short, believe Labour’s lies and cannot see the disaster that is Newham, Tower Hamlets and Hackney, so they vote for Labour Councillors, then they deserve the mess they are stupid enough to desire

  45. 45
    hot spots says:

    I take it the areas coloured red are the ones to avoid?

  46. 46
    Not a stooge. No not at all. Honest. says:

    Nice to see that self-important knob Gilligan is still bigging himself up above and beyond all evidence to the contrary (“Why Labour Supporters Should Shun Ken”): “After I revealed that his idol, Ken Livingstone, had saved a fortune by channelling six-figure earnings through a personal company, ” … errm that’s “I” spelt “G-U-I-D-O”, isn’t it?

  47. 47
    BBC NEWS says:

    So do we.
    We toyed with ‘doing a Ken’ but decided against.

  48. 48
    The Last Quango in Paris says:

    The terrifying thought is what would happen if Ken was not Labour’s choice, a bit like what would happen if Ed (s) were not Labour choice. Put someone half decent in and they will be serious contenders. People have short memories.

  49. 49
    Ken Livingstone says:

    Labour’s supporters are typically people with sub-average IQ, low-status jobs and short worthless lives lived-out in shitty areas. People who are too stupid to look after themselves.

    Smart people, with successful careers and nice houses, don’t vote Labour.

    Please vote for me today.

  50. 50
    The Proviinces says:

    What about the local elections?
    This blog is the most London-centric load of old shit I have ever seen.

    Shove an Oyster card up your collective arses and fuck off.

  51. 51
    The Provinces says:

    Learn to spell dickhead.

  52. 52
    Dan says:

    For his crimes & his substantial part in Blairs illegal wars I hope that the locals who had to jet wash what remained of their children off of what remained of their homes catch that smug little git & behead him live on the internet.

    I would pay to watch that.

    Weak, small time opportunist tax avoiding war criminal.

  53. 53
    Ah! Monika says:

    Can somebody tweet Stephanie Flanders and ask her ” When you leave the polling station tonight, put Ken’s lights out “

  54. 54
    The Labour Party says:

    Self sufficiency is a crime.

    And anyway, it’s impossible.

  55. 55
    Dan says:

    Except we are not.

    Socialist Osbourne is spending more than McMental.

    And printing more than McRuin.

    And borrowing more than McDebt.

    And taxing us more than McRobber.

    FACTS – as I believe you cultural terrorists like to state.

  56. 56
    Steve Miliband says:

    Yes but who will win the East Fotheringham ward in Upper Wanstock? That’s what we want to know.

  57. 57
    Pilot Officer Pontius says:

    If UKIP don’t get 3 seats, will Farage finally f.uck off?

  58. 58
    Outer Hebrides says:

    But where else would a blog about Westminster tittle tattle go?

  59. 59
    Steve Miliband says:

    When bank account overdrawn and credit cards at their limit we call it doing a Gordon

  60. 60
    David Rose says:

    Which ward is that little red pimple in the SW? Somewhere in Kingston?

  61. 61
    Ken Livingstone says:

    What do you expect from a filthy j3w?

  62. 62
    Twat watch says:

  63. 63
    Osama the Nazarene says:

    Just loaned my vote to UKIP, with Boris as backup of course.

    You say In Germany Red-Green governed cities have veered to the far left. The Greens ARE far left infiltrated by disillusioned Commies and Trots.

    Agree that Paddick was much better than last time round but his policies still don’t stack up. This hourly Oyster ticket on all buses is only for tourists. Most hard working Londoners have a weekly, monthly or annual ticket.

  64. 64
    I'm Not Judging, But... says:

    I bet Nonytwat would also secretly like gulags for enemies of the state, thought police and politburos, tax exemptions for Socialist Workers (A right oxymoron if ever…) as long as he could have the use of a dacha.

    Spaziba, Comrades – long live the reolution!

    TWAT!

  65. 65
    We have another victim of Liebour's ejookayshun system says:

    The Con-dem’s what? Tea and sandwiches?

  66. 66
    Spartacus says:

    Let us hope ukip get more than three seats – then you can both find something else to abuse.

  67. 67
    The colour purple says:

    #VoteUKIP today. You know it makes sense!

  68. 68
    National Socialist says:

    We’ve got a few in our garden. Back from migration I suppose.

  69. 69
    Trundlemaster says:

    Thus speaks someone educated at a progressive comprehensive

  70. 70
    Quisling says:

    I do hope he has his poop scoop with him at all times, as his is Labour’s Dog Turd Tzar after all

  71. 71
    Quisling says:

    I trust he has his p@@p sc@@p with him at all times. He is Labour’s D@g T*rd Tsar after all

  72. 72
    National Socialist says:

    If you vote for Ken are you voting Labour?

  73. 73
    Lord Mooncrater says:

    I don’t see the problem if the lefties get a majority. Boris and the UKIP should go into the first assembly with chain guns and assassinate the fuckers.

    There is no crime of killing pond life and these tossers aren’t as intelligent as spyrogyra.

  74. 74
    jgm2 says:

    Do fuck off Dick. There’s a good chap.

  75. 75
    Pedal to the metal says:

    Only if you’re a cabbie, because those are the areas where you might encounter the morbidly obese fat-arsed shadow public health minister, Diane Abbott.

    In which case you put your foot to the floor and turn your wipers on.

  76. 76
    I'm Not Judging, But... says:

    Yeah – mainly because McTwat didn’t cut out the cancer – he put a f.ucking band aid on it. Now the surgeon is having to take more away, spend more time doing it (and time IS money) with no f.ucking anaesthetic, because we can’t afford it!

    What did you pink wan.kers expect after TELLING us there was no money left?!

    Is full frontal lobotomy preferred or mandatory in order to support the Liebour party?

    I’d rather have a full bottle in front of me, than a full frontal lobototmy.

  77. 77
    Nursey says:

    Brilliant Gordo I always knew you were a clever boy. Like you incisive growth of 0%.

  78. 78
    jgm2 says:

    Stuart Hyde for example, Chief constable of Cumbria who is clearly finding his inner chivalrous knight stirring in his loins moral compass.

  79. 79
    Osama the Nazarene says:

    +1

  80. 80
    Gordon Brown says:

    +0% is preferable to -0%

  81. 81
    A man in a chair says:

    Brown wasn’t Labour’s choice either, don’t forget.

  82. 82
    David Rose says:

    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/mayor/ken-livingstone-is-living-in-the-past-says-labour-peer-lord-desai-7706766.html

    Lord Desai also questioned Boris Johnson’s abilities and record as Mayor and said he will still probably vote for Mr Livingstone despite his belief that the party would have been better choosing a contender such as Harriet Harman.

    Hetty Harperson???

  83. 83

    Guido brigade attacking Mensch?
    Have a look over at CIF for the Mensch haters.

    A woman who isn’t a left wing feminist is a traitor to the sisters.

  84. 84
    The Barclay Bros. says:

    lol yes we call it doing a Gordon when all the gold has gone

  85. 85
    Airey Belvoir says:

    I’ve been fined for using my hosepipe to drain off floodwater!

  86. 86
    Sensible Simon says:

    I voted!

    For Ken, admittedly.

    But there you go.

  87. 87
    A man in a chair says:

    +1

  88. 88
    jgm2 says:

    Cutting too much, too far, too quickly.

    How wrong can one person be? You are Gordon brown and I claim my gold.

    The problem remains that after two years they have cut too little, too shallow, too slowly.

  89. 89

    I can’t say I would support any organised party these days as they are all run by self interested sociopaths and that includes all the Labour Cabinet, Dave, George, Nick, Danny, Nigel Farage and Caroline Loony-Lucas.

    If I lived in London, I would vote for the best independent which in this case appears to be Boris

  90. 90
    sockpuppet #4 says:

    Errr right. Anyone using london transport is either a tourist or Londoners with a season ticket.

    Rather the shitty assumption I noticed to be honest.

  91. 91
    I'm Not Judging, But... says:

    And here is just the music to accompany that event!

    Skip ad after 5 secs – it’s crap!

  92. 92
    A man in a chair says:

    Whenever I despair at the miserable high tax/high spending dross that constitutes today’s Conservative party, and I contemplate whether Labour would or could actually possibly maybe be bett.. I stop myself in mid-thought because Harriet Hatesmen’s stupid wrinkly po-faced image crawls its way into my mind.

  93. 93
    JH says:

    I would actually enjoy Izzard being Mayor, it would be such a giant FU to the Muzzies.

    They’d be dying to dangle him from a crane but would have to put up with him as mayor. Great entertainment.

  94. 94
    Ned Balls says:

    Quite right. Growth of zero percent is better than negative growth of zero percent.

  95. 95
    jgm2 says:

    Surely you just turn off your little light. Sorry luv – I’ve knocked off for the day.

  96. 96
    BBC says:

    UKIP DON’T EXIST

  97. 97
    BBC says:

    STOP TALKING ABOUT UKIP

  98. 98
    BBC says:

    WHO ARE UKIP? NEVER HEARD OF THEM.

  99. 99
    BBC says:

    AS LONG AS YOU DIDN’T VOTE UKIP.

  100. 100
    jgm2 says:

    Gilligan did a great service exposing Ken as a crook last time around and gave a fair effort at preventing Blair and Campbell’s insane Iraq war.

    Gilligan did more, by attempting to prevent the Iraq war, (that was based on nothing but lies) to promote community harmony than divisive Ken ever did.

  101. 101
    BBC says:

    DON’T VOTE UKIP.

  102. 102
    BBC says:

    WHO ARE UKIP?

  103. 103
    BBC says:

    VOTE GREEN TO STOP UKIP.

  104. 104
    Pedal to the metal says:

    You could, I suppose. But running her over would be better. “I just didn’t see her, officer. I felt a bump and heard a yelp, so I reversed and felt another bump, but I didn’t see nothing so I drove off and felt a bump, so I reversed and (continues for 10 minutes).”

  105. 105
    jgm2 says:

    David Miliband had only to stand up to him and Labour might still be in power.

    Brown had only to call that election instead of bottling it and Labour might still be in power.

    God, we were lucky. It might not feel like it right now but imagine what more damage the Maximum Imbecile could have done in another two years.

  106. 106
    BBC says:

    AS LONG AS IT’S NOT UKIP THAT’S OK.

  107. 107
    Ken's script in full.. says:

    [sob]

    I’m not crying for my own career.

    [sob] [smirks subconsciously, whispers ‘Are you getting this on camera?’]

    [sobs]

    I’m crying for the people of London that I won’t be able to help. [sobs, looks around to see if anybody is buying his act..]

  108. 108
    Referee says:

    Mensch’s thin skin amuses.

    Is it safe to say that, please?

  109. 109
    BBC says:

    YES WE ALL PRAY FOR THE COMING GENERATIONS TO WIPE OUT THE REMAINING INDIGENOUS ENGLISHMEN.

  110. 110
    BBC says:

    ALL THREE SUPPORT UNLIMITED CULTURAL ENRICHMENT OF THIS COUNTRY. SO ALL THREE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

    GO AWAY. AND STOP TALKING ABOUT UKIP.

  111. 111
    BBC says:

    PLEASE STOP TALKING ABOUT UKIP.

  112. 112
    Mine d'Boggles says:

    Soort soek soort (as we used to say)

  113. 113
    BBC says:

    YOU VOTED FOR UKIP? TERRIBLE. YOU WILL BE SENT TO THE HARRIET HARPERSON RE-EDUCATION GULAG.

  114. 114
    Lady Virginia Droit de Seigneur says:

    A real Gordon is reaching overdraft and credit card limit then applying for more credit cards to ensure boom and bust is completely abolished.

  115. 115
    Penfold says:

    Got an overlay for that map that shows the density of council/social housing?

    We should go back to the old arrangements that ONLY property owners can vote in local elections where rates are set and money locally raised is spent. Those on benefits and in receipt of state subsidies have a vested interest in keeping the taps on, as they don’t have to pay.

  116. 116
    Osama the Nazarene says:

    Most is the keyword there.

  117. 117
    Rage Against the Political Elite. says:

    You can see where the Social Science experiment of SINGLE PARENTAGE and immigration policy working on the MAP.

    STATE DEPENDENCE POPULATION.

    Not for long they have run out of Money. ha haha ha., ITS ALL OVER.

  118. 118
    Iprintmy own businesscards says:

    When I put my empty wine bottles in the general waste bin what are they going to fine me now?

  119. 119
    misterned says:

    the sad thing is, looking at her tweets, she IS left wing.

  120. 120
    UKIP - Fisting Your Granny Since 1993 says:

    UKIP are the only party that are committed to fisting your granny.

  121. 121
    UKIP - Fisting Your Granny Since 1993 says:

    Whatever.

  122. 122
    Aunt Mat says:

    Worst possible result for Boris.

    None of his policies will be passed by the GLA.

    But HOLD ON – they weren’t his policies anyway!

  123. 123
    The Provinces says:

    Isn’t City Hall in Southwark?

  124. 124
    Plato says:

    You are only calling it Londonistan because you sold your place in London too cheaply and missed the property boom.

  125. 125
    Bald Billy's Bumchum says:

    Whilst not totally committed in principal, we would under certain circumstances, be prepared to run a pilot scheme for certain selected and appropriate grannies in order to evaluate the benefits and dis-benefits of gerontological sparring.

  126. 126
    Captain Hugo says:

    Isn’t there a correlation between the Red areas and the looting that happened last summer?

  127. 127
    Order-Order Troll says:

    LOOK AT MEEEE!!!!! I’M TROLLING THE INTERNET. MY OPINIONS MATTER. ANYONE WHO DISAGREES WITH MY OPINIONS IS STUPID/A COMMUNIST/A NAZI/A MUSLIM/A JEW/A LEFT-WING LOON/A RIGHT-WING LOON/OR MAYBE EVEN SOME COMBO OF THOSE

  128. 128
    Trundlemaster says:

    It’s situated between, the city of London, Hackney and Newham, otherwise known as Tower Hamlets

  129. 129
    Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP says:

    I’ve done the gay gordon in my underpants this morning
    oooh matron

  130. 130
    Penfold says:

    No, that’s Dacca.

  131. 131
    Tower Hamlets voter says:

    +1000


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