Pollsters Backing Ed V Punters Backing David

Someone is going to get a shock based on these Sunday Times/YouGov polling results. With two weeks to go until the results are known and voting already taking place it is, all are agreed, going to be close. Punters are predicting a win for David Miliband whilst pollsters YouGov are predicting a narrow win for Ed Miliband.  Admittedly the punters could change their positions on this news, but as things stand currently they are ignoring the pollster overall.


Guido is sticking with his money on David Miliband to beat his brother Ed because he disagrees with the YouGov / LeftFootForward analysis of how the second preference votes will break. It will be close undoubtedly and there does seem to have been a shift in the union affiliates section of the electoral college and Guido has taken money off David to win that section (Ed is now 60% favourite to win the union members vote). David Miliband is still overall favourite to win the leadership, the MEP/MPs votes and the members votes. Guido can only think that the switch in union affiliates to Ed is a result of Union bosses’ endorsements sent out with ballot papers.

UPDATE : Ed Balls remains favourite to be eliminated in the first round. Oh dear…



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Liam Fox shreds Cameron’s Calais scaremongering:

“Sad and disappointed to see our Prime Minister stoop to this level of scaremongering, especially as he knows the Calais agreement is nothing to do with the EU and agreed between the two govts”

Top Posts This Week

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.

Facebook

EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT EX-LABOUR MINISTER COMES OUT FOR BREXIT
EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT? EU GOING TO PAY FOR THAT?
TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING TORY MPS PAN CAM’S CALAIS SCAREMONGERING
LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF LEAK: LANSMAN MOCKS “CLUELESS” UNITE CHIEF
CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS” CARSWELL: “NOT GOING TO CRITICISE FELLOW EUROSCEPTICS”
SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK SUNNY DAYS AHEAD FOR SCRAPBOOK
HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER? HOW MANY MPS DOES IT TAKE TO CHANGE A SOAP DISPENSER?
KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER KEN PREDICTS MCDONNELL WILL BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER
Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers Don’t Criticise Fellow Brexiteers
EU CABINET GUIDE: WHITTO MOVES UP, GOVE TORN EU CABINET GUIDE: WHITTO MOVES UP, GOVE TORN
PROTESTER CHUCKS DILDO AT MINISTER PROTESTER CHUCKS DILDO AT MINISTER
LEAVE 9 POINTS AHEAD SINCE DAVE’S DEAL LEAVE 9 POINTS AHEAD SINCE DAVE’S DEAL
VENEZUELA FORCED TO FLY IN PLANELOADS OF CASH VENEZUELA FORCED TO FLY IN PLANELOADS OF CASH
SILLY SAUSAGE: TORY MP’S COMMONS DOUBLE ENTENDRE SILLY SAUSAGE: TORY MP’S COMMONS DOUBLE ENTENDRE
SRAELI EX-AMBASSADOR ‘LATE NIGHT VISITS’ SCANDAL BREWING SRAELI EX-AMBASSADOR ‘LATE NIGHT VISITS’ SCANDAL BREWING
UKIP WARNS OF RISK OF TURKEY JOINING EU UKIP WARNS OF RISK OF TURKEY JOINING EU
HIGHEST-EARNING MP DIDN’T NOTICE £400,000 INCOME HIGHEST-EARNING MP DIDN’T NOTICE £400,000 INCOME
BORIS’ NEW BALDNESS-BATTLING BARNET BORIS’ NEW BALDNESS-BATTLING BARNET
GUIDO’S FASHION TIPS: GET THE GRASSROOTS OUT UNIFORM GUIDO’S FASHION TIPS: GET THE GRASSROOTS OUT UNIFORM
BORIS AND FARAGE PAN DAVE’S RED CARD BORIS AND FARAGE PAN DAVE’S RED CARD
WHEN CAMERON AND OSBORNE LAUGHED AT A ‘RED CARD’ WHEN CAMERON AND OSBORNE LAUGHED AT A ‘RED CARD’
SADIQ DUCKS CITY AIRPORT ROW SADIQ DUCKS CITY AIRPORT ROW
DIRE POST-DEAL PAPERS FOR PM DIRE POST-DEAL PAPERS FOR PM
FABBERS’ VOMIT-INDUCING EUROPHILES REVEALED FABBERS’ VOMIT-INDUCING EUROPHILES REVEALED
UNION BARON: “ALL THE TORIES ARE AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE, THEY SHOULD BE TAKEN OUT AND SHOT” UNION BARON: “ALL THE TORIES ARE AN ABSOLUTE DISGRACE, THEY SHOULD BE TAKEN OUT AND SHOT”
STELLA THE ‘HASH SMOKING MOROCCAN TOURIST’ STELLA THE ‘HASH SMOKING MOROCCAN TOURIST’
CORBYN BROTHER’S BIZARRE RESPONSE TO DEATH OF MAN AND 4 YEAR OLD SON: “LOL” CORBYN BROTHER’S BIZARRE RESPONSE TO DEATH OF MAN AND 4 YEAR OLD SON: “LOL”
BORIS: DAVE’S DEAL NOT GOOD ENOUGH BORIS: DAVE’S DEAL NOT GOOD ENOUGH
9 SPECIFIC DEMANDS DAVE WANTED FROM BRUSSELS 9 SPECIFIC DEMANDS DAVE WANTED FROM BRUSSELS