July 22nd, 2010

Punters versus Wonks

It is fair to say that London Labour’s activists and wonkish elite are by and large behind Ed Miliband, unless they are ideological Blairites (like the Progress crowd) or careerist greasy pole climbers like most MPs, in which case they are behind David Miliband. The headbanging Tory hating activists go for Balls and lefties back Abbott with Burnham picking up a Northern token vote.

Supporters of Ed Miliband are adamant, despite polls showing David has more than twice as much support among Labour supporters, that he will win on second preferences.  Will Straw at LeftFootForward has even built a predictive model that forecasts Ed scraping through. Yet punters persist in making David Miliband the runaway favourite. Are the punters or the wonks right?

Guido accepts that Ed will probably win the union’s endorsements, though the Fabian’s Sunda Katawala argues that doesn’t necessarily mean he will win the votes of union members. Punters agree with Will and give Ed a 60% chance of winning the union votes.

Guido and punters make David the 80% favourite to win the MP/MEPs vote.  Will forecasts it will be closer than that but accepts that David will win this part of the electoral college.

It is over the membership vote that Will’s model and punters differ dramatically. Based on a non-representative, self-selecting poll of LabourList’s readers (DM 34.9% EM 30.8%), he predicts that the second preferences from the more left-wing candidates will switch to Ed and he will thus beat his older brother. The argument being that since Ed is positioned to the left of David, second preferences won’t tack right to the most centrist candidate. This is delusional.

Not all the voters will see the candidates in such finely calibrated positions on the centre-to-left spectrum, much of the electorate will vote on character and personality. Apart from Diane Abbott the policy positions of the candidates are in reality very closely bunched and Ed Balls’ new found tactical leftism is transparently risible.  Experience shows that second preferences tend to break in correlation with first preferences. The correlation isn’t perfect, but nor is it so weak as to be insignificant. Yet Labour sympathisers in the media and even more objective pundits like Toby Young believe Ed will come through.

So if it will be decided by the membership vote, is the LabourList poll accurate? It is unlikely that a self-selecting web poll will be. YouGov actually put Balls ahead of Ed Miliband but behind David with Labour voters (and another private poll by Survation put Diane Abbot within 5% of Ed among union members).  With the polling confusion Guido puts little reliance on the sampling and absent of clear polling evidence Guido opts to “follow the money”. David Miliband has raised more money than all the rest and he has the weight of  punter’s money backing him. It will be close, but Guido suspects Ed will lose to his big brother.


201 Comments

  1. 1
    Voice of Treason says:

    It’s like being asked to choose between Ron and Reg.

  2. 2
    Mine d'Boggles says:

    Doubtless many people are hoping for a total loon to be chosen, others will want their richly endowed life in the Quangos to be perpetuated, but I would guess that most people couldn’t give a monkeys.

  3. 3
    Sir William Waad says:

    Who forecast the result of the General Election more accurately – the pollsters or the punters?

  4. 4

    I wonder if both the Milibands would be surprised by how long I would willingly repeat fire a potato gun at their faces?

    If I hear them whining on about their “values” one more time I just might go all Mr-Potato-Head-Meets-Raoul-Moat on them…….

  5. 5
    Ed Milibands Press Officer says:

    You may very well be eating humble pie,Guido.
    Cast your memory back to those dark days when Maggie Thatcher won the Conservative Party leadership…..she was third favourite at 8/1.
    In private David Miliband has conceded and will be willing to work under young brother,Ed.
    Rather than “follow the money”,make yourself some money and back Ed Miliband at any available odds

  6. 6
    anonymous says:

    I don’t give a fuck about this so called contest. What I want to know is do we get to shoot the winner?

  7. 7
    pachebal says:

    I suppose someone has to win but none of them has any credibility – They have no interest in the common good – they’ll contradict themselves and say anything at all to get into POWER.

  8. 8
    John Bull says:

    Pity the poor constituents of Doncaster North. Whilst Ed fucks about trying to win the captaincy of the Titanic, we with all our problems are left in the wilderness, with no elected memeber to talk t because he is so busy furthering his own career.

  9. 9
    Andrew Efiong says:

    Ed Balls would be my pick. Total comedy and years of entertainment would lie ahead.

    The Millibands will just send voters to sleep. At least Balls makes them chuckle.

    Suspect most people will feel sorry for Labour. They’re picking a leader but haven’t worked out what the party stands for.

  10. 10
    Eileen Critchley says:

    Torys want Ed.

  11. 11

    More like Siegfried and Roy.

  12. 12
    'Mandy' says:

    Tell me about it.

  13. 13

    ‘Suspect most people will feel sorry for Labour’.

    Only the very sickest in our society.

  14. 14
    BirdLover says:

    Bert and Ernie

  15. 15
    ST says:

    I’m rather chuffed with all this I bet against David M back at the start of the competition and now for him as the betting exchanges have swung to his brother. Now no matter what happens Davie M is making me money.

    This all bodes well for the coalition. If Labour go mad and don’t elect the strongest candidate (David M) they’ll have either a non-entity or a loon in charge of them. Alternatively, if they do elect the Blairite large the unions will be alienated during a period when they’ll want to be throwing their weight about.

  16. 16
    Desert Rat says:

    Who gives a fuck, they are all dangerous wankers.

  17. 17
    ST says:

    Top notch Mayor though!

  18. 18
    Albie Here says:

    Didn’t think NewLav needed either of these two plonkers,one a save the earth geek the other changes his mind depending on which way the winds blowing,they have our Dave you couldn’t get anymore left wing than him,he’s the only one that can turn blue into red,he’s doing better than his friend Bliar in getting more votes for the NewLav party .

  19. 19
    David 'Making It Up As I Go Along' Cameron says:

    Britian hardly fought in World War 2, infact we were just junior partners.

  20. 20
    ST says:

    Why? Too wonkish?

  21. 21
    We are Richer than you as our Dad knew how to hide his dosh from the Inland Revenue says:

    The Miliband Brothers Rubber Masks.

    Its a first! The rubber masks are nicer than the real thing!

    For free advice on how to hide your massive inheritance from your quasi-socialist Father give Ed or Dave a ring on

    “0800 do as we say… not as we do”

  22. 22
    Puppet Master says:

    or Abbot and Costello

    Who gives a **** about Labour anyway? |Why all the time spent on these muppets?

  23. 23
    Benefits Kulture UK says:

    Who cares? They were part of a useless government that was voted out. They should try and get a job in the private sector and stop relying on the state to fund their lifestyle.

  24. 24
    pick a Blair any Blair says:

    more like Ed Blair or David Blair

    to go up against the vastly different other Parties led by Dave Blair & Nick Blair

  25. 25
    A Pensioner says:

    Frontdoor or backdoor.

  26. 26
    lolol says:

    a job in the Banks you mean?

  27. 27
    4x2's are on the road to nowhere says:

    Who are the Millibands kidding.

    The muslims won’t put up with the facade for long.

  28. 28
    Albert Hall says:

    sums it up.

  29. 29
    willsteed says:

    Jesus… they look like they’ve both been dug out of a graveyard.

    The over-ambitious swivel-eyed sons of a Jewish Marxist-intellectual (Shurely shome mishtake, oxymoron? Ed))

    ‘Ooh look at me daddy, you would be so proud. Ooh daddy look at me too, you would be even prouder. It’s like Kane and Abel or something… just the UK public have to put up with this bullshit, and hey, one of these egomaniac approval-from-daddy seeking loonies if going to be Leader of Opposition next.

    If you think of the characters involved, the Labour party has been totally f’d up since ’97… and now they’re going to dish out more of the same.

    That they just can’t see it is funny!

  30. 30

    Yeah, nice one Dave, you fucking plant pot.

  31. 31
    Indigo says:

    O/T but the last 20 minutes of the “Today” programme running up to the weather forecast before 7.00am seemed to be one anti-Government item after another. If I hadn’t, last night, read several approving reports of Clegg’s performance at PMQs (“masterful” “confident”, etc), I’d have thought – from listening to the BBC this morning – that he had made a hash of it.

    I want to know, too, what Mandelson said to the Forgemasters employee who had the temerity to ask him about the funding in the context of the wider economic picture – the pillock of a Speaker, Bercow, cut Clegg off (for being “discursive”) as he was about to recount this. Does anyone know what the One Who Casts No Shadow said to the Forgemasters employee?

    Pillock, pillock Bercow.

  32. 32
    Tom says:

    Stupid, inane comments from the same usual morons above. It was this arrogance that kept us out of power for 18 years. The Labour leadership DOES matter and it’s silly to suggest otherwise. We should all be hoping the worst candidate wins, but I fear the younger Miliband will galvanise them and offer a serious threat to the coalition.

  33. 33
    Gordon Brown says:

    Or Wallace and Gromit.

    More bananas Gromit! Stupid goon.

  34. 34
    Desert Rat says:

    Dad did not get the opportunity to fuck the UK up totally (the family are serial traitors and chancers), so he groomed these two imbeciles, to do the job for him (and the soviet fortune he acquired, was laundered through trusts, to give them the funds they need to finish us off).

    We should fuck the lot off, back to where they came from or North Korea where their ideals are already in practice.

  35. 35
    welsh rarebit says:

    can I bring to your attention an increasing problem over UK skies. Today an MP has argued for low flying military aircraft to be banned. No doubt he will be ridiculed and laughed at as is usual in the UK but he has a point

    http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/2010/07/22/low-flying-jets-making-us-deaf-and-should-be-banned-says-mp-elfyn-llwyd-55578-26905139/

    However, the point of interest is that the UK government allows, at no charge, the pilots of 16 other countries to train in our airspace, including Germany, which bans low flying in its own airspace. Just who does this government think it is and who does it really serve?

  36. 36
    Mr Plum says:

    EU

  37. 37
    Sir William Waad says:

    It’s an Ed to Ed contest.

  38. 38
    Mr Plum says:

    All the films show the yanks doing all the hard work

  39. 39
    willsteed says:

    Very good point.

  40. 40
    Check it outttttttttttttt says:

    The coalition are their own worse enemies, you could put Nick Griffin as Labour Leader and they would still galvanise.

  41. 41
    Check it outttttttttttttt says:

    Ever notice how socialists are never keen to practice what they preach.

  42. 42
    Worst day yet for coalition ? says:

    In PR terms*, probably.

    Cam and Clegg always warned there would be “bumps in the road” for the new politics, but it’s worth recapping on today’s wee string of triumphs:

    * Clegg hardens up Afghan pull-out, to say: “Let me be absolutely clear that we will see our troops withdrawn from Afghanistan from a combat role by 2015.” Military sources say it’s a mistake to be so categoric.

    * Clegg says that the Iraq war was “illegal”. Senior Tories disagree, No. 10 says DPM was speaking in a personal capacity.

    * No. 10 says we’ll have to wait for Chilcot to hear a verdict on the legality of the war. Er, but as any student of Chilcot will tell you (and I am one, for my sins), the inquiry has specifically said it will not provide such a ‘Yes/No’ verdict.

    * Cameron decides to help out in the gaffe-stakes by declaring: “We were the junior partner in 1940 when we were fighting the Nazis.” Churchill spins in grave.

    * Michael Howard attacks Ken Clarke’s “foolish” claims that prison numbers are less important to crime levels than economic booms

    * Tories brief that Cable’s graduate tax is not going to happen in the way he thinks

    * Lansley U-turn on death tax upsets backbench Tories

    http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/07/worst-day-yet-for-coalition.html

  43. 43
    Gordon's publisher says:

    Gordon, the bright green crayon is becoming a little trying for our readers. Could you use an ordinary pencil for your book please? Also, you don’t need to cover every square millimetre of the page, on both sides.

    While the illustrations are lively (the one of Alistair Darling and the silverback gorilla made us chuckle despite ourselves) they are, I’m afraid, not entirely suitable for publication.

  44. 44
    Engineer says:

    Interesting choice of illustrative photo, Guido.

    The Millipedes (and others) are busy telling everyone how much they didn’t agree with all sorts of things done by the government in which they served, and how much that qualifies them for leadership.

    Meanwhile, Cameron and Co. are getting stuck into sorting out the mess the country’s in after 13 years of Millipedes et. al.

    Cameron, it seems, has fired up the Quattro…..

  45. 45
    David 'Laugh A Minute' Cameron says:

    I do enjoy re-writing history.

  46. 46
    kenneth chegwin says:

    have you got one with a telescopic sight

  47. 47
    kenneth chegwin says:

    they share a common purpose though

  48. 48
    Must get a pseudonym one day says:

    Mike & Bernie

  49. 49
    Dork says:

    A geek and a dweeb.

  50. 50
    The wild-eyed (ex) Leeda of Londistan, speaking at CurrCuddy Hoose for Lunatics and Moral Defectives says:

    It wasn’nae me.

    Ah sav’d the wuld!

  51. 51

    Ably assisted by Lord Schnorbitz of Pies and Sick…

  52. 52
    Gordon's publisher says:

    Cain and Abel.

  53. 53
    Desert Rat says:

    How to win friends and influence people

  54. 54
    Punter says:

    Follow the money. It really is that simple.

  55. 55
    South of the M4 says:

    Actually the best candidate should win for the ensured future of democracy – just there isn’t one.

  56. 56
    Sarah Tweet says:

    @KateMcCandlish am writing book about my own experience at no10 to publish next year – so the writing time is now

  57. 57
    anonymous says:

    whilst I agree in principal, can you describe as fully as possible what exactly a dangerous wanker is? My mind is racing with visions of blokes holding up post offices with their dicks out……

  58. 58
    Sarah Twat, the Twitty Totty says:

    How do you spell ‘page 1′ ?

  59. 59
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    “Much of the electorate will vote on character and personality.”

    ∑ < 1

  60. 60
    Gonk says:

    Ed’s got an axe behind his back, Dave a syringe.
    They both look as though they were hatched.
    Whatever happened to normal.

  61. 61
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    Here are the two of them:

  62. 62
    NeverRed says:

    They are all unemployable, that’s why they are in politics.

  63. 63
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    Can’t improve on that, concrete.

  64. 64

    I’m in no doubt that Britain was the junior partner among the allies. There is no question.

    The Russians and the Americans spent more money and supplied more manpower than Britain.

    The only point is that in 1940 after Dunkirk there was nothing happening other than the battle of Britain 600 airmen and over in north Africa we were running away from Rommel.

    In 1941 we had won the battle of Britain and were just about pushing Rommel back.

    The Americans came into the war in 1942,(as pearl harbour happened in Dec 1941) From 1942 to 1945 the war was taken over by the yanks and the Russians.

    Cameron is right about the contributions of Britain, just out on the year that’s all.

  65. 65

    Here’s a great story from the DT about an Arab bloke who got 18 months for telling a Jewish lass his name was Daniel – oy vay, what crazy coreligionists the Milibands have!

  66. 66
    Anonymous says:

    Could either of the “hoddit & doddit” Millipede sisters sort out this item on the eastern horizon?:

    http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20100722/tts-uk-korea-north-usa-ca02f96.html

    This really is just as dangerous.

  67. 67
    angelnstar says:

    BREAKING NEWS: Ken Livingstone formulates a radical new strategic policy to beat Boris.

    http://cyberboris.wordpress.com/2010/07/22/ken-stages-media-protest-against-his-own-policy/

    He attacks and supports a policy decision at the same time.

  68. 68
    Gone Fuckin Mnetal says:

    To Be Honest , They are all white middle aged and marxists (apart from fat but ) , They all take down to us (they know best ) , Some have links to the violent left , One or 2 have links to 9/11 truthers , One is a known bully , Can anyone tell me what makes any of them fit to possibly be primeminster?

  69. 69
    Engineer says:

    Interesting piece of trolling. “…that kept us out of power for 18 years.” That was Thatcher and Major keeping you out of power, wasn’t it? To the great benefit of the nation…..

  70. 70
    Snake oil salesmen says:

    Absence of an mp? – shocking. Guess the social workers and CAB will have to do an extra 5 minutes work to fill the gap.

  71. 71
    NeverRed says:

    Why is there only one monopolies commission?

  72. 72
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    .

  73. 73
    amongymous says:

    I think it’s better than that – regardless of what journalists, MPs, the BBC and the rest of the establishment think I think neither has any realistic chance of winning a general election. Both seem just as remote and weird as Gordon. They both look and sound like sixth-form politics students who are desperate to prove how clever they are by running everyone else’s life and, to view it all through that personality lens that many voters do, my gut feeling is they will turn voters off. Burnham and perhaps even Abbot would do it less on a personal level. Basically labour are screwed – cheers!

  74. 74

    Yeah, too right, I’ve seen Saving Private Ryan and not a limey in sight at the front: so where were we back then, all selling nylons to the USAF groundcrew?

  75. 75
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    Mill some helical grooves so that the potato will be rotating at a higher spin rate.

  76. 76

    Or a phased plasma rifle in the 40-watt range?

  77. 77
    Baldemort says:

    There’s no money left.

  78. 78
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    Rule NewLabour
    Marmalade and jam
    Five failed troughers up your arsehole:
    Bang! bang! bang! bang! bang!

  79. 79
    fanny batter says:

    How much more of this fucking crap is there to go? I don’t give a toss if they choose Torture Miliwank with his smirk and bum fluff moustache or the other one who sounds like he’s speaking with a mouthful of trifle; just get on with it.

  80. 80

    Randall and Hopkirk {NuLab Deceased.}

    That should really be for Andy Burnham ..{Only you can see me Jeff {Randall}. No one else can hear me, or pays any attention to me ..Jeff!..Jeff!..”}

  81. 81
    Anonymous says:

    More like Malice and Vomit

  82. 82
    The man who came in from the all Women Shortlist says:

    Picture the scene its the White House Rose Garden and on the dual lecterns we have on the right Bark Obama President of the United States and on the left Ed Milliband…….er sorry no I cant quite see it myself !

  83. 83

    Since Brown got the job the bar has been set so low they all seem a bit overqualified.

  84. 84
    Engineer says:

    They don’t want competing interests.

  85. 85
    Gone Fuckin Mental says:

    So we have had a few gaffes , BBC was going mental over Cleggs Iraq blunder , And Dave said we was junior partner in ww2 , Fuckin hell , Still at least i ant throwing bricks at the tv like i was whenever Former pm Brown ( How did he get to the highest office in the land still baffles me) was in office .

    The need for soundbites is fucking annoying , Spin must end , But it wont .

    In good news , Premier leauge clubs are banning vuvuzelas from the grounds

  86. 86
    Thick Wanker detector says:

    Rauol Moat was a perfect example of such

  87. 87
    Penfold says:

    A choice selection of marxists, champagne socialists, nutters, thieves, pickpockets and self delusional, self centred, egotistical twats.

    Does it matter?

    No.

    The fools in the electorate will vote one of the slime balls back into power some time in the future having forgotten the mess that we’re in now.

    One thing is clear though, not one of ‘em was a backer or friend of Gordo, and all resisted fanatically the manner of Gordo’s economic reign.

    So perhaps we should add mendacious tossers to the list. ;-)

  88. 88
    Winston Churchill RIP says:

    I’m spinning full rudder down in this grave.

    Thanks to whippersnapper Cameron.

  89. 89
    Roger Daley says:

    “Bootsie & Snudge” (Foreign Affairs)

  90. 90
    amongymous says:

    Bercow now regularly cuts off Cameron or Clegg if they’re about the really embarrass the labour MPs yet never seems to stop the Labour leadership ranting away utter nonsense. Bercow is a stain on our constitution.

  91. 91
    The Complete History of the World by Metro Goldwyn Mayer says:

    No we were to busy capturing that enigma machine from the U Boat which…….hold on according to the Yanks that was them as well. Daddy what eactly DID you do in the War ????

  92. 92
    Rich Uncle Pennybags says:

    There is only one game in town mah boi!

  93. 93
    The Primrosehill Dinner Party set says:

    How many times ! We dont want Socialism for us, its for the Little people like you.

  94. 94
    Why is a police car outside my house says:

    My talents are truly wasted sometimes.

  95. 95
    moriarty says:

    Don’t forget we’re talking about the Labour party. They won’t know what the party stands for until they’ve elected the new leader.

  96. 96
    Education Education er er says:

    Joe Cole, a professional footballer apparently, interviewed on Sky ‘I’ve reached the stage in my career when I just want to play football’ wtf has he been doing up until now.

  97. 97
    Gone Fuckin Mental says:

    And another thing ! , Caught a bit of Parliment channel yesterday and they where debating acadamy bill, Funny thing was Labour where opposing them because of mixed results , But when in power we where told they where the best thing since slied bread , Do labour have any morals ?

  98. 98
    D Millipede says:

    Citizens will warm to me when there is an EU directive forcing them to like me.

  99. 99
  100. 100
    Desert Rat says:

    Or Mayfair or Park Lane on the board?

  101. 101
    The Singing Ringing Tree says:

    Bercow is dismantling Parliaments ability to have open forensic debate. He is so puffed up with his own Hubris that he believes, as he is fond of saying, that he is doing the peoples work. His wife Silly Bercow is just another on the make opportunistic chancer.

  102. 102
    AC1 says:

    BBC and obama beach = tumbleweed.

    It’s like they’re the British version of Journolist

    http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2010/07/tales-from-the-crypt-the-journolist-archives.html

  103. 103
    Desert Rat says:

    The premier league are a bunch of racist bastards. I’ve been to Vuvuzalia and the people are wonderful, banning them from football is a disgrace.

  104. 104
    100th says:

    100th

  105. 105
    AC1 says:

    Not so far from the truth…

    D Millipede wants a “Carbon card” to swipe and record EVERY action you do, and is fully signed up to the AGW scam.

    There’s also an EU push to jail those highlighting that the theory of AGW has been falsified.

  106. 106
    Grandsons of a 'loyal' Polish citizen says:

    Trust us, your country will be safe in our hands.

  107. 107
    Lord Mandleson of Backstabbing says:

    “…o the writng time is now”

    Sorry my love the writing time was several months ago to allow the publication last week in order to maximise profit. By the time your book is ready to come out no one will be interested .

  108. 108
    Sir William Waad says:

    There was a time when Labour was the party of reform and progress in education, but those days are now long gone. They are now the party of reaction. Don’t change anything, they say, but build shiny new palaces for nothing to happen in. It’s almost as though they wanted to keep working-class children in the ghetto. Perhaps they do; it secures their vote. Most things Labour has done in education has lowered social mobility. Inflating university education so that you need a degree in order to work as an office clerk or gardener, while ensuring that poorer kids are rigidly segregated by postcode in secondary education and can’t afford to go to Uni has killed their prospects for the next 50 years. Sure Start was a good idea but any advantage it gives is lost when the children sink into the secondary school morass.

  109. 109
    Tim Lovejoy says:

    Hi , My Names Tim Lovejoy and i am a legend

  110. 110
    AC1 says:

    Is chapter 1 called “Being a Beard” or “Faking a relationship for the cameras”?

  111. 111
    Penfold says:

    Marx and Engels

  112. 112
    AC1 says:

    He just Fired up the BA 747 and flew business class.

  113. 113
    Down with Brown! says:

    I’ve always thought the role models for the Millis were Paul and Barry Elliot (The Chuckle Brothers).

    Vote Labour for ChuckleVision

  114. 114
    Down with Brown! says:

    They get a fate worse than death, to be leader of the Labour party.

  115. 115
    Desert Rat says:

    A few will back out when they realise the job requires a full frontal lobotomy

  116. 116
    Down with Brown! says:

    Labour have been comedy for years.

  117. 117
    Anonymous says:

    Here’s a wild thought; maybe, just maybe a pair of cosmopolitan internationalists wouldn’t have the best interests of the British people at heart.

  118. 118
    Down with Brown! says:

    I’m sure the book will be dedicated to the love of Sarah’s life…….

    Lord Paul.

  119. 119
    AC1 says:

    He was a real socialist.

    Socialism boils down to keeping your own money and spending others for your benefit.

  120. 120
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    Hello, knob end.

  121. 121
    AC1 says:

    Or Poles, or Canadians.

  122. 122
    AC1 says:

    I think you mean “least weak”, rather than strongest.

  123. 123
    AC1 says:

    Except for the “comedians” on TV…

  124. 124
    Gone Fuckin mental says:

    Gotta admit i miss Billy hauge at pmqs , he is so much more witty and his jokes are better

  125. 125
    moriarty says:

    Regarding the ‘in 1940′ quote : Watch the Sky news video and right after he says ‘in 1940′ something (a correction?) has been clearly edited out of the interview.

  126. 126

    ‘There’s also an EU push to jail those highlighting that the theory of AGW has been falsified’.

    Linky linky?

  127. 127
    Southern Softy says:

    Berkow was a total c’unt yesterday.
    And the Berkow tart was a total waste of space on QT last week.
    I hope she gave her fee to charidee.
    Oh, yes – charidee begins at home. of course.

  128. 128
    Mr Ned says:

    In a word NO!

  129. 129
    CMD Camertwat says:

    I think it is important that I tell you I have a strong grasp of the history of WW2.

    It enables me to plan effective future strategies with our allies.

    The EUSSR History Department helps me verify facts.

  130. 130
    Mr Ned says:

    Agreed. Let’s not overlook the massive scale of the defeat in vote terms. Labour did worse than John Major in 1997.

    Labour were massively flattered by the very biased constituency seat boundaries and this is what saved them from an utter rout.

    When the coalition re-order the constituency boundaries and remove the labour bias then we will see how pathetic their support really is these days.

  131. 131
    john from hull says:

    like john ‘legend’ terry

  132. 132
    Gone Fuckin mental says:

    “Things can only get better “

  133. 133
    Mr Ned says:

    That’s because it will never happen because Barak will not be President after 2012 and even IF miliband were to inexplicably win the labour leadership and a general election, it won’t be until after 2012 anyway.

  134. 134
    Anonymous says:

    He’s good at Judo too

  135. 135
    pick a Blair, any Blair says:

    they look and sound like Blair

    just like Cameron does

    just like Clegg does

  136. 136
    Cleggeron says:

    It’s Dave and Nick

  137. 137

    Where did David Milliband find the cash to buy his brother out of the £800k Quimrose Hill house?

  138. 138
    Budgie says:

    It’s a Blair eat Blair world.

  139. 139
    you're having a fucking laugh says:

    unlike Dave’s pick a policy progressive Limpservatives then?

  140. 140
    Mr Ned says:

    They have not known what they stand for for many many years now. All those leftists who cheered as Blair committed war crimes to suck up to the most ardent and extreme right-wing Administration in decades, whilst pursuing a nakedly elitist corporatist agenda.

    Labour stand for nothing but getting power and hating tories. That’s it!

  141. 141
    Gone Fuckin mental says:

    The Aussies look shit ! the ashes are coming home in the winter !

  142. 142
    IT WAS THE MEEJA MADE HIM DO IT!!!! says:

    they made him say something as hugely fucking stupid as that

  143. 143
    Mr Ned says:

    Correction: as Blair committed war crimes to suck up to the most ardent and extreme right-wing American Administration

  144. 144
    I can remember my moniker says:

    The Secretary of State announced that she will be:

    •Withdrawing state funding from the political blog site,Order Order);
    •Abolishing the Royal Commission on Political Blogging;
    •Abolishing the Political Blogging Advisory Council; and
    •Abolishing thePolitical Blogging Commons Commissioners.

    A sad day for us all on this site

  145. 145
    Budgie says:

    Oh I don’t know …. Barking O’Barmy and Sad Millibrain as a duo has a sort of ring to it.

  146. 146
    Tom says:

    what are you on about? I’m a Conservative voter.

  147. 147
    RSPBrownones says:

    the line and ink drawings of sarah’s privates are not really appropriate either but the doggie was nice. keep trying to do the jobbies in the potty.

  148. 148

    All out for 88 t’other day, fuck you Ponting you knob-end.

  149. 149
    Budgie says:

    No comedian has cost us what Brown has done.

  150. 150
    Mr Ned says:

    I can, considering that the Americans were still actively funding the Nazis at that time and that they did not even enter the war until they saw that we stood a bloody good chance of winning, Dave’s remarks are utterly unforgivable.

    The USA never even declared war on Germany, but had to wait for Germany to declare war on them!

    I dunno, perhaps we should forgive Dave, after all, he was only schooled at Eton, I mean what historical facts do they even teach the kids there???

    What a twat! What a totally blunt and useless fucking tool he is turning out to be.

    I was hoping that Dave would turn up stateside and stand up for Britain.

    Gulf oil leak? yeah, American companies, American workers and America’s fault!

    Releasing the Lockerbie bomber? That was Scotland’s idea and anyway, the CIA would not have wanted all that evidence proving his innocence going before a public court now would they?

    Another investigation into Lockerbie?

    OK, as soon as you have another independent and truthful investigation into the nine-eleven attacks, in which British citizens were killed, but an investigation that is not then disowned as untruthful by it’s own commission members, both of the commission’s chairmen, their chief legal counsel and many of the witnesses whose evidence was ignored. Deal?

  151. 151
    Fred Goodwin says:

    I’m a socialist and so are my friends at Goldman Sachs.

  152. 152
    Budgie says:

    “f Labour go mad and don’t elect the strongest candidate (David M) they’ll have either a non-entity or a loon in charge of them.”

    As against David M who is a non-entity AND a loon.

  153. 153
    nope says:

    they’re Blairites just like Dave and Nick are

  154. 154
    RSPBrownones says:

    give me the money this is a dick up …..sounds ok to me

  155. 155
    Desert Rat says:

    “Wanker” is a generic term, in my native Liverpool, for people who lack competence.
    So somebody who was (in scouse) a wanker and was, operating a nuclear reactor, or running a country, would be a danger to the populace.

  156. 156
    JontyPriorLabourLiarEsquire says:

    If the answer if Milliband, then they’ve asked the wrong question.

  157. 157
    Mr Ned says:

    The Americans did NOT supply more manpower than us, and we had a lot more casualties than them too.

    But I agree that it was largely due to the Russians that Germany was eventually defeated. The Russian death toll was immense, but we in the West can be thankful that Stalin was even crazier than Hitler and just kept pouring more and more Russians into the Eastern front, tying up and draining the Nazi war machine.

    America largely just got in the way of our achievements. Eisenhower was particularly useless according to Monty!

  158. 158
    Pick a Blair, any Blair says:

    how will the electorate cope when asked to choose between the 3 Blair clones at the next election?
    I like the Dave heir to Blair…No! the Nick Blair is a even more Blairish…But the MiliBlair sounds just like him?

    pointlessness incarnate

  159. 159
    Engineer says:

    Yeah, right….

  160. 160
    Desert Rat says:

    Tom, once the electoral reform and boundaries are in place, Labour will never win power again.

  161. 161
    Mr Ned says:

    Which “US” was out of power for 18 years, cos it definitely was NOT the tories.

    Labour were only in power for 13 very long disastrous years. It was 18 years since the tories last won a general election, but they did not win the election in 1992 and then immediately hand power over to labour.

  162. 162
    Groucho says:

    Or for that matter, where did Mandelson find the cash for his £2.5m London house?

    I’m sure its all above board, I mean its not as if he has had any dodgy mortgage dealings in the past or anything.

  163. 163

    Miliwatt range, surely?

  164. 164
    marksman says:

    had Britain not stood up to the Germans when they entered Poland…the freedoms of the western worlds would not be what they are today. the Bristish role was central ….. the resources in the last two years were thanks to the americans and russians.

  165. 165
    marksman says:

    stepford children

  166. 166

    Sitting on the bench pulling tens of thousands a week for not playing – even Cockneys get bored eventually…

  167. 167
    Rev. Cuntwatcher says:

    sally bercow is a silly tart who should learn to engage the brain before operating the mouth.

  168. 168
    Sir William Waad says:

    I’ll wait until it ‘s available in Poundland.

  169. 169
    Rev. Cuntwatcher says:

    Oh Tom Tom the farmer’s son…don’t get your knickers in a twist..

    how about abbott suported by balls ? …can’t you see the vision in that ?

    Ed with his tongue so far up Abbott’s booty he’ll need a plank strapped
    across his arse to stop him falling in.

  170. 170
    Mr Ned says:

    Yes it probably was a pretty crap day for the coalition, but let’s keep it in perspective.

    A few gaffes in a couple of speeches is not the same as deliberately ruining a nation, committing war crimes, killing, injuring and displacing millions of innocent lives, attempting to enslave the British population in a totalitarian surveillance society and get all the people addicted to state dependency ruining the economy for decades in the process.

    So Clegg told the truth about what he perceives the legal status of the Iraq invasion was. That is not a fuck-up, in fact most people will probably find the honesty refreshing.

    As for the Graduate tax, well that is a policy still in progress and the coalition were always going to have differences on it, but on examination, the differences are not that great.

    As for Cameron’s fuck up about 1940… yeah that sucks and he made a tit of himself. But it’s just a wrong remark. It is not fucking the country backwards like labour did.

  171. 171
    the old Dufflebag says:

    yvette could be the plank

  172. 172

    My dyslexic mate got deported from South Africa for blowing a Zulu’s vulva!

  173. 173
    One View says:

    ‘As fully as possible’ probably risks trying the patience of our webhost so I’ll try & minimise it. Years ago I did a job in an area which was mainly council houses for Ford workers. I started with the prejudice that it was going to be
    all piss-stained carpets and front gardens like carbreakers. Some houses were like that but a lot of them had people who took a pride in themselves and their immediate surroundings.

    Labour would shower the area with money to improve things. The trouble is,
    the scrotes would remain scrotes and the reasonable would stay reasonable,
    and probably be called ‘borgeois’ by socialists.

    The money would have to come from somewhere i.e. private companies and
    individual taxpayers. and a lot of it would be siphoned off as ‘rewards’ for
    people carrying out the failed policy.

  174. 174
    Twitterlugs says:

    leaked extract from sarah’s draft chapter..’Gordon Gets It’.

    As Gordon opened his trousers I knew I had to give that a miss at all costs…so I told him that was a toy and he should just turn round and lean over the sofa…He did and got the biggest dildo mothercare had got squarely up his dusterbox…. he gasped so I shoved harder until he just stammered…..ohhhhhhhhhhhh ohhhhhh ohhh oo o.

    The very next day I had my own protection officer. Gordon never sniffed around my back door again.

  175. 175
    Twitterlugs says:

    hes lucky mate of mine got canned for valeting his bird’s volvo

  176. 176
    Mr Ned says:

    I read about that initially on the whatsupwiththat blog (normally a superb climate realist blog) where it was a story taken from the B&P website. As soon as it was realised that this was from that site, WUWT took this story down from their site. (WUWT being an American site, they were not aware of the low likelihood of truth on the B&P website.)

    I went to the B&P site to see if there was any merit to this claim and even their site could not back up that claim, only suggesting that n1ck G had been made aware of it as his capacity of being an MEP.

    I still maintain that this claim should go in the “pinch of salt” category until further proof can be provided that the EU intends to breach their own human rights laws to imprison someone for believing a scientific theory that runs counter to the CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropological Global Warming) theory.

  177. 177
    Twitterlugs says:

    Sir Willie …..Education is best driven by it’s students…let the clever rise to whatever heights they may achieve…ensure the base education level is better than average and don’t dictate teacher’s horizons …indeed encourage them to foster real talent and promote it to promulgate that layer of intellectual cream for which this country is famous.

  178. 178
    Mr Ned says:

    9/11 truthers? Like the official commission you mean?

    Or you don’t think we should know the truth about 9/11? What is wrong with the truth? Why attack people who ONLY want the truth? Is that not what we all want? or do you prefer the Government telling lies?

    Can you tell me what the truth is regarding nine-eleven? could you point me in the direction of the truth?

    Because when even the co-chairmen, AND the chief legal counsel, AND many of the members of and witnesses to the OFFICIAL nine-eleven commission now refute that the official report is the truth, and they claim to have been impeded in their pursuit of truth, AND THAT THE REPORT IS NOT AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF ALL THAT HAPPENED THAT DAY How the FUCK am I supposed to know exactly what DID happen that day?

    Go ahead, point me to the truth, because all I can find is BULLSHIT incomplete conspiracy theories and that INCLUDES the official version.

  179. 179
    What if ? says:

    In the end it would have all come down to the Bomb. The Yanks got it first. If they hadnt entered the war the Nazis would probably have developed it first and despite Rusian sacrifices the Nazis would have won.

  180. 180
    Aunt Hilda says:

    Timmy so glad to hear the little one got over the squits…what a mess you had to deal with…hope the stains came out of your pants. love to nellie Aunt Hilda xx

  181. 181

    Mr Mandelson’s house was bought via various greased Russian/Rothschild palms. Of course, this is all 100% legitimate and entirely above board as you would expect. As was little Reinaldo’s passport.

    In any case he’s just too important for us at the station to do anything about it.

  182. 182
    Apagusta says:

    cracking brain….

    I rate his ‘Blair as potential European President Speech’ in the
    commons as one of the best ever…simply superb.

    Am delighted to see him flourish as foreign secretary
    a role to which, I believe, he is ideally suited.

  183. 183
    the old Dufflebag says:

    after 13 years yo to that

  184. 184
    the old Dufflebag says:

    tough titty its too late…the damage has been done…the cat is out of the bag…they’ve blown it again…freedom of the net..yeah power to the people..well some of them anyway.

  185. 185
    the old Dufflebag says:

    You need specsavers honeybunch….cameron is nothing like blair and nick is just an add-on…you know a bogof offer.

    Blair’s currency was built on a mythical new labour movement spun to the great unwashed who swallowed the guff it spouted like feeding guppies.

    men like prescott become lords, the chingrinner goes awol, mandelson screws everyone over…scum well gone and a movement dreamt up in the spires of uni by Tony Gordon and Peter goes down the squitterbox…good riddance

  186. 186
    Apagusta says:

    David Cameron doesn’t claim to be a messiah just someone who is unafraid to acknowledge the privilege he enjoyed as a son of discerning parents and a man without a mystical agenda.

    Nice to see the Eton education shine through despite the slightly shy manner.

    Has the ability to come across well internationally and with Hague..will be influential in the medium term. A secong term will allow him to develop
    a broader vision of the UKs place in the new world order and act accordingly.

  187. 187
    Can't remember my moniker says:

    I am glad that I can’t remember my moniker if this is the sort of shyte that someone who can remember their’s writes.

  188. 188
    Party tribal loyalist says:

    Christ, talk about boot licking.

  189. 189
    Prince Upyourz of Nigeria says:

    the footman does that stupid

  190. 190
    Anonymous says:

    How to get Ms Bercow pregnant?

    Come on her shoes and let the flies do the rest

  191. 191
    Apagusta says:

    no but pragmatic

  192. 192
    nimeataur says:

    how the hell did we get stuck with the geek brothers one gabbles his words like a strangulated goose, the other has the back bone of a jelly fish the country needs better than this ,either of these representing the country as ably as either cameron or clegg is wishful thinking . both are born loosers not matter what people like the deranged simon[ polly toynbee dressed as a man } heffer think

  193. 193
    Little Weed says:

    Bill or Ben

  194. 194

    Hey, just what you see pal.

  195. 195
    Gnome says:

    One of Abbott and Costello was the straight whereas the other guy was the funny guy.

  196. 196
    john from hull says:

    And boy are they ugly, they’d almost give stone faced brown a run for the money…

  197. 197
    cant hunter says:

    Is there anyone on these pages who could claim that, if the opportunity arose, they could resist the temptation of giving David spindly legs Milliband a bloody good smack. He’s got hit me, hit me hard, written all over him.

  198. 198
    wrightyboy says:

    Aren’t the Milliband Brothers dopplegangers for the Maxwell (Robert) Boys?

  199. 199
    equity abhors a Maxim says:

    Stands and applauds!
    Chapeau, Mr Ned.

  200. 200
    Ch4rl3s H4rdwidg3 says:

    What a pair of twisty faced inbred fucking freaks, they look like 5x2s to me.

  201. 201
    Narco Gene Hunt says:

    Two of the ugliest bastards on the planet.

  202. 202

    […] up a gear this week, with our predictions from our model, published on Tuesday, sparking much heated debate – following Will’s conclusion that Ed Miliband was the narrow favourite, thanks to […]


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