Though caveated by the obvious fact this is hardly an independent poll, LabourList’s surveying of its readers shows some interesting patterns emerging in the otherwise still dull Labour Leadership race. Amongst Labour members David Miliband is, as expected, out in front on 37.7% of first preferences. Ahead, but not as far as he needs to be to win. His little brother is only six points behind on 31.6%. Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham seem to be living up to their well gossiped catch-phrase of “everyone’s second preference”.
The union vote, as important, is even more intriguing. Ed Balls’s only hope of victory would be to get the unions on board, but it looks like they are comprehensively rejecting him with 6.8% of first and 8.7% of second preference votes. The leftier Ed Miliband is, as expected, leading the union vote. He is going to hoover up those second preferences when his brother doesn’t make it through the first round far enough ahead.
Many would have thought Whelan would have Unite the Union vote sewn up for his old boss. During a leadership contest that is crucial to the future of the organisation that pays him £250,000 per year to represent them, he seems to have disappeared off to South Africa for a month of football. Word is he has lost the internal struggle to have Balls endorsed by Unite and was over-ruled by Woodley and Simpson. Guido hears Unite could be about to endorse the Younger.
Balls needs to be careful to avoid being beaten into last place – Abbot is in a far more comfortable position than he is at this stage of the race.
Full data here.
The rumour mill is in full swing this afternoon. There’s a whisper on the wind that some age-old speculation might soon finally be confirmed. Chatter is rife that Gordon Brown has been spending stints in a London hospital. For psychological reasons.
The former Prime Minister has not been seen properly in public since walking into the Downing Street sunset. There was a sighting in a Fife supermarket and Sarah has obviously been busy securing her book deal. If Gordon doesn’t appear soon then there might just be reason to believe the crazy rumours are true…
Developing…
UPDATE: Usually reliable sources have pointed Guido toward the Royal Edinburgh Hospital rather than a London hospital.
There was tension amongst Tory boys as word spread that new MP Caroline Nokes was getting turned over by a Sunday paper at the weekend. There were sighs of relief from many a MP, councillor and party hands when it emerged in the Mirror that it was Councillor James Dinsdale who had been photographed entering Nokes’s hotel and later, somewhat ungentlemanly, confirmed a sexual affair. The former Chief Executive of the National Pony Society is said to be a formidable rider and practising evangelical Christian.
In April on the campaign trail Nokes signed the “Westminster 2010 : Declaration of Christian Conscience” a pledge to make sure her career in Parliament focused on “protecting human life, protecting marriage, and protecting freedom of conscience… creating and maintaining strong families, caring communities and a just society.” Her husband is said to be in shock. He clearly never went to Party conference with “Shagger Nokes” as former Tory Chief Whip David MacLean named her.
Sandra Gidley, Nokes’s defeated LibDem rival is making noise, suggesting that a re-run of the election is in order given that Nokes lied so blatantly to the voters regarding the pledge. Elsewhere David Law’s Tory opponent is similarly stirring the pot suggesting that Laws’s gave a false impression of his expenses bill of health and his campaign was “a pack of lies”. Nothing like a bit of scandal to get the coalition feathers ruffled on the ground.
Guido hears that organisers of the weekend’s Compass conference were pleasantly surprised by the attendance. The fact there was a Labour leadership hustings certainly helped. If anything the conference should serve as a much-needed reminder for the candidates of quite how unelectable the left of the Labour Party is. Take a selection of propaganda they were giving out on behalf of dictatorial governments:
Venezuela Solidarity Campaign:
“Hugo Chavez today leads one of the most progressive governments in the world… transforming the lives of millions. The old ruling oligarchy and their allies in the US do not intend to allow Chavez to continue to redistribute power and wealth. Numerous attempts to destabilise and over throw Venezuela’s democratically elected government have taken place”
Cuba Solidarity Campaign:
“Cuba has a healthy, educated and vibrant society. The 1959 Cuban Revolution brought great advances in health, education and culture for the Cuban people, and continues to give hope and inspiration to millions of people across the world.”
These leaflets weren’t handed out by activists on the fringe but included in the official conference packs. The loony left is back and they are making noise, unless Labour are careful, they are going to upset the apple cart…
Ed Balls is looking for sympathy with claims in the Mirror this morning that he was bullied at school
“I was teased and bullied right through my school years about my name and stammer and it was merciless.
I wouldn’t say it reduced me to floods of tears but it was really tough.”
Guido has personal testimony from his former school-mates that he was indeed bullied because he was as insufferable then as he is now. Balls also claims that the Tory high-command threw a lot of money at his constituency during the general election because they fear him most. Like his claim that his personal share of the vote only went down because of the BNP, it doesn’t stand scrutiny. His opponent raised a lot of money online because people disliked him so much, his vote went down for the same reason. The BNP actually saw their vote go down in his now ultra-marginal constituency.
The truth is that Balls winning the leadership of the Labour Party would be cheered in CCHQ and Cowley Street. Balls polls the worst negative rating of any front bencher, from any party.
