At the LibDem conference this lunchtime a fringe meeting has been organised by Liberal Vision, a new pressure group set up by Mark Littlewood, the former chief of spin for the LibDems under Kennedy and Ming.

The Liberal Vision wonks have dug into the local election results, where traditionally LibDems do better, and extrapolated the results nationally taking into account boundary changes. Their data suggests that two-thirds of LibDem MPs in England could lose their seats. Devastating.

Guido has never seen a research paper with more bar-charts and the message is, “LibDems losing here”. The paper argues that in order to counter the Cameron effect the LibDems should promise to reduce the overall tax burden, not just reducing taxes for those on lower incomes. They need to reduce taxes on the middle classes with household incomes in the £60,000 to £70,000 range. The paper argues the LibDems won’t hold onto seats without appealing to the middle class “soft Tories” who have returned to Cameron’s now decontaminated liberal Conservatives. Not a message the sandalistas will like to hear.

Download “How to Combat Cameron“ paper (pdf).