Polls close at 10pm. Team Burnham is quietly confident, but nobody is popping the champagne just yet. The result is expected at around 4am. Some in Reform think it could take even longer. A long night ahead…
| POLLS | LABOUR | REFORM | RESTORE | LEAD |
| Convergent Times/Sun Times · 2–12 June | 49 | 37 | 5 | +12 |
| Opinium Forward Democracy · 3–11 June | 46 | 41 | 7 | +5 |
| More in Common/UCL 28 May–12 June | 45 | 40 | 8 | +5 |
| Survation Times/Sun Times · 26 May–1 June | 49 | 39 | 8 | +10 |
| Survation Times/Sun Times · 18–22 May | 43 | 40 | 7 | +3 |
| Average | 46 | 39 | 7 | +7 |
| BOOKIES | LABOUR | REFORM | RESTORE | LAB % |
| bet365 polls open, 18 Jun | 1/10 | 11/2 | 16/1 | 91% |
| Betfred 17 Jun | 1/6 | 5/1 | 20/1 | 86% |
| William Hill late campaign | 1/4 | 3/1 | 20/1 | 80% |
| Betfair Exchange 16 Jun | 1/4 | 9/2 | 22/1 | 79% |
The bookies think it’s a done deal…
Andy Haldane, Burnham’s recent adviser on the economy who has not taken up a No10 job, told Andrew Marr on LBC:
“The market now suspects that this is a traditional tax-and-spend socialist government with better TikTok videos…
imposing windfall taxes on oil & gas or on banks or upping capital gains tax would […] repeat the mistake that Rachel made […] The Achilles heel, the fiscal Achilles heel of this government thus far has been its unwillingness and/or inability to cut public spending.”