Turnout was 36.95% in the 2004 Mayoral elections. Ken actually got the support of only 10% of the potential electorate. The Tories are more popular now than before and they have in Boris a likeable candidate. Is that alone enough for him to win? Maybe.

He is extremely popular with the Conservative grassroots and if Boris just succeeds in motivating them to go out and vote, he will win. On the basis of the last election’s results Boris needs to get an extra 1 in 5 Tory sympathisers in London to go to the polling station. This is without the extra oomph from the Conservatives nationally polling better than in 2004. Boris inspires a great deal of enthusiasm, he will without doubt energise that base. He also has first-name brand recognition. If Labour tacticians think they can fight him as a posh buffoon they are making a mistake just like the Tories made in thinking they could portray Gordon as a left-winger. Boris will never appeal to a certain type of left-winger, but he doesn’t have to, he just has to get the stay-at-home Tories down to the polling station.

People seem to forget that Boris got to Eton on a scholarship, not because he was a toff, the buffoon tag can be shaken off easily.