Boris First, Corbyn Third Behind ‘Don’t Know’

For months Corbyn and May were behind or on a par with “Don’t Know” as the public’s preferred choice for PM. Boris is now the clearly preferred choice of twice as many voters compared to Corbyn. When he became Tory Party leader, YouGov put Boris in second place behind ‘Don’t Know’. In just his first week as Prime Minister, Boris has soared eight points into first place. The more people see of Prime Minister Boris, the more they like him…

All the government now has to do is Brexit to smash Corbyn in a general election. Simples…

Boris Boost Puts Tories Ahead in Wales

The Boris bounce has not just been felt in England, a YouGov poll taken between Tuesday and Friday last week has found that the Tories have now moved into top spot in Wales. This is where Labour took 49% of the vote in 2017, with the Tories behind by double digits…

Compared to the last YouGov poll, the Tory vote has risen by seven points, whist the Labour vote has fallen by three and Brexit Party fallen by five. Boris will also have an eye on that chunky 18% for the Brexit Party which could be coming his way if he delivers on Brexit…

YouGov Debunks Claims of Large-Scale Tory ‘Entryism’

Remainer Tory MPs’ go-to excuse when facing local members angry over flagrant betrayals of their manifesto commitments has been to dismiss it as “entryism”, despite there being no solid evidence for it whatsoever. It suits Remainer Tory MPs to blame Leave.EU rather than unhappy local members. Blame that Arron Banks gleefully accepts

Instead of idle speculation, YouGov have done a rigorous study into Tory members, when they joined the party and why. While a large number of recent joiners did say it was because they wanted a vote in the leadership election, the vast majority were Tory supporters already before they actually joined the party. Leadership contests have always been good recruiting tools for pre-existing supporters who just haven’t bothered to join the party they back:

Whilst recent joiners are more likely to support Boris, even pre-2015 members still overwhelmingly prefer Boris to Hunt by 63% to 37%, so it’s largely immaterial to the final result. There’s simply no evidence that there’s been entryism on any significant scale – newer members may be more ‘Brexity’ but they are still overwhelmingly Tories. Brexit-blocking MPs have no excuse for not listening to the genuine concerns of hard-working local members any more…

Public Split on Kim Darroch Resignation

YouGov have conducted some remarkably speedy polling of the public’s attitude towards the Kim Darroch affair, although the fieldwork was conducted before his resignation. Over half the public thought it was wrong for the comments to have been leaked, 37% went further and said it was also wrong for the press to have published them. Good luck getting journalists not to publish a scoop like that…

On the issue of whether Darroch should have been replaced however, the public were much more split. 41% thought the next PM should have kept Darroch in place, while 35% thought that he should have been replaced with “someone more able to have good relations with the US Government”. Unsurprisingly there’s a very high “don’t know” response of 24%…

There’s already a clear Leave-Remain split on the issue, Remainers favoured keeping Darroch by 58% to 20% while Leavers favoured replacing him by 52% to 28%. More Tories also favoured replacing him, while Labour and Lib Dems supporters tended to want to keep him in place.

The reality is that what made Darroch’s resignation inevitable was Trump’s incredibly hostile response to the leak. The suggestion being put about by “friends of Darroch” that he was somehow going to stay in Washington for the next six months while being frozen out of every single meeting and function with the Trump administration, but then dramatically changed his mind after watching last night’s TV debate is plainly a fantasy. Darroch could have left office with his head held high as the innocent victim of a malicious leak against him, instead he has decided to turn it into a political attack on Boris…

Latest Net Approval Ratings Favour Boris

Jeremy Corbyn has a negative 51% approval rating; confirming that his condoning of anti-semitism and constructive ambiguity on Brexit has killed his fleeting popularity. Theresa May has a negative 31%, “Theresa May in Trousers” has a similar negative 30% and Boris a less negative 23%. Giving Boris a clear edge over Hunt. Hunt’s supporters like to say Boris is a Marmite character, they should reflect on how much Marmite is loved by the British people…

Full YouGov data tables.

General Public Now Rates Hunt & Boris Equally

Jeremy Hunt will be pleased with this YouGov poll which suggests the public is warming to him. In a post-Brexit election both leadership hopefuls will score 33% – which is news – last month Boris scored 34% to Hunt’s 30% – this tie is of course statistically within the margin of error. In reality without Brexit happening British political norms will be shattered and so will the chances of a Tory majority. The problem for Hunt is that the numbers for Tories are little moved and he is well behind Boris with the people who have votes… party members.

Tories and Brexit Party Joint Top in Latest YouGov Poll

There’s a rare bit of positive polling news for the Tories this morning as YouGov find them joint top for the first time since before the EU elections. Then, they were tied with Labour on 24%, today they’re tied with the Brexit Party on 22%, leapfrogging Labour and the Lib Dems who fall to fourth. Hardly time for the Tories to start popping the champagne corks, as recently as February they were polling almost double on 43%, before May delayed Brexit…

Tory Members Would Rather See Scotland Leave and the Party Destroyed than Lose Brexit

The latest YouGov polling of Tory members lays bare just how deep their commitment to Brexit now is. By a margin of over 30%, Tory members would still want Brexit to happen even if it meant Scotland or Northern Ireland leaving the UK or significant damage to the economy. A net 18% are still in favour of Brexit even if it destroys the Conservative (and Unionist) Party. The only scenario that Tory members wouldn’t countenance as the price of Brexit is Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister…

However, as LBC’s Theo Usherwood points out, the raw numbers don’t take into account the likelihood of each event taking place. Tory members are more likely to be blasé about the first four scenarios as they don’t see a realistic prospect of them happening either way. The threat from Corbyn and McDonnell is much more tangible…

It isn’t purely an ideological calculation, the members also think it is their best route to electoral success. Over 50% believe that not delivering Brexit would damage the Tories so badly they would never lead a government again – a huge 92% overall believe it would lead to defeat at the next election. Conversely, a clear majority believe that delivering Brexit – both with or without a deal – will win the Tories the next election. 68% say it would be unacceptable for the next leader to be a Remainer who won’t leave without a deal, bad luck Rory…

“What Should We Have Wanted…”

Guido was pretty much alone in saying Andrea Leadsom would be better than Theresa May before May’s coronation and afterwards.

Now look, YouGov’s polling of Tory party members shows they wish they had in hindsight chosen Leadsom. Told you so…

50% of Tory Members Think Rory Would Make a Poor Leader

77% of Tory members think Boris would make a good leader…

MPs backing Boris will be pleased to see that Tory voters agree with members. In fact Boris is the only candidate who commands a positive net approval rating. Something that will perhaps surprise those avid for Javid.

Rory is the only candidate who has a negative approval rating from Tory members…

YouGov To Prompt For Brexit Party In Future Polls

YouGov have today confirmed that they will prompt for the Brexit Party in future polls, including their latest published poll putting Nigel Farage’s outfit ahead by 6%. They’ll also be prompting for the Greens, who remain on single figures…

Supporters were aghast last week to discover that they were not being prompted for by one of the most respected pollsters in the country. A bombshell YouGov poll for The Times put the LibDems in first place, Brexit Party in second, and Tory and Labour Parties as runners up, despite the Brexit Party not being prompted. The differences are small, but a prompted Brexit Party clearly does better…

Tory MPs Shown Private Polling Under Different Leadership Options

Lord Tim Bell commissioned a private poll on Friday with the same panel of people that delivered The Times’ shocking Tory-Labour joint third place finish behind the LibDems and the Brexit Party. Bell got YouGov to ask the same panel if they would change their vote under different leaders. He has written to all Conservative MPs to describe the results. Guido has been leaked the crucial extract:

Bell wrote to Tory MPs

“The YouGov poll on the front page of The Times on Friday showed voting intentions in a General Election for the Conservative Party down to a paltry 19%, putting us in third place, behind both the Lib Dems and Brexit Party. But in my poll (using the same panel, on the same dates), when Boris is named as the leader, our vote benefits from the ‘Boris Bounce’, surging to 29% and putting the Conservative Party back in top place.”

Boris, Raab, and Saj turn around the Tories’ fortunes moving the party ahead. Gove and Hunt deliver put the Tories behind the LibDems on level pegging with Labour. All is not lost for the Tory Party…

UPDATE: Guido has obtained the full YouGov survey data tables. Team Boris will be very pleased with the results…

Hat-tip: graphic nicked from ElectionMapsUK

YouGov Justify Not Prompting for the Brexit Party

YouGov not prompting for the Brexit Party in this morning’s bombshell poll when it is polling second in Westminster voting intentions and won the Euros has riled a lot of their supporters. Anthony Wells has written an explainer and makes this justification:

“…like many pollsters we overstated support for the Brexit Party, putting them at 37% compared to the 31.6% they actually achieved in Great Britain. Over the next few weeks, we will also be looking at the possible causes of that overstatement, and whether there was something to do with turnout, undecided voters or our weighting or sampling scheme that led to us having too many Brexit voters in our final poll.”

However, it’s worth remembering their final poll for the 2017 General Election predicted a 7% gap between the Tories and Labour, in the election itself this shrunk by the same margin to just 2%. YouGov may well have tweaked their turnout models afterwards, Guido doesn’t recall them doing anything as drastic as moving a major party into ‘Other’…

Either way, remember Cleggmania? Surges have a tendency to fall back. Even so, the Brexit Party outpolling the two main parties of the twentieth century is a real tribute to the popular appeal of Corbyn and May. The outcome of the Tory leadership race will determine the long term sustainability of the Brexit Party…

Brexit Party Takes 18 Point Lead, Tories Slump to Fifth

The latest YouGov poll for the European elections shows support for the Brexit Party growing even stronger, up 4% from their previous position. Meanwhile Labour is collapsing and the Tories are almost down to single figures, and the Lib Dems have continued to squeeze CHUK to irrelevance. Since the European Elections have been held under proportional representation, no party has ever got more than 33.5% of the vote. The Brexit Party look like they could smash that record…

Brexit Party Takes Clear 6 Point Lead

We are now in the kind of territory that we have not seen since the days of the SDP. The Brexit Party (28%) is polling ahead of Labour (22%) and polling more than double the vote share of the Tories (13%). The Tory party chairman Brandon Lewis was pleading this morning for Tories to vote Tory.  This is the high price of failing to deliver Brexit.

Brexit Party Set to Smash Euro-Elections

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is polling on 27%, up from 15% in the last poll and nearly double the vote share of the Conservative Party. 49% of people who voted Tory in 2017 currently plan to vote for the Brexit Party in the EU elections, only 34% actually plan to vote Tory. The Brexit Party’s 12% jump is sending a shockwave around Westminster, meanwhile the explicitly anti-Brexit parties have only mustered 25% between them…

BBC Guests Pile in on Bridgen for Quoting a Poll

Andrew Bridgen was accosted by the entire panel on Politics Live today for accurately quoting YouGov polling that shows in the likely event that the UK doesn’t have an agreed deal by Friday, voters prefer leaving with ‘No Deal’ to both accepting an extension, or remaining in the EU.


This sort of pile on is what happens when only one person on the panel voted to leave…

Boris is Still UK’s Most Popular Politician

Boris Johnson tops out YouGov’s list of politicians by popularity, with a positive rating of 32%, when you look at the net approval ratings Boris is 3 points ahead of Theresa. The other Tory frontrunners to replace May, David Davis and Sajid Javid come in at 18th and 33rd respectively. Despite the unforgiving treatment in the remainstream media Boris still has better net approval ratings than both May and Corbyn…

More people have heard of Jacob Rees-Mogg (72%) than Ruth Davidson (62%), however the people who have the highest recognition ratings are Boris, May and Corbyn coming in at 97%, 100%, and 98% respectively. This helps explain Sajid’s dismally low numbers…

Finally, the public don’t appear to be too enthusiastic about a David Cameron comeback. Despite his name recognition, Dave comes in at 23rd, with just 18% approval and a worse negative rating than Nigel Farage…

There Was No Labour Conference Bounce

Whilst Corbynistas grabbed onto a BMG poll that showed a post-conference Labour bounce, it looked like an outlier and the new poll from YouGov suggests it was very much so. This latest YouGov poll will not reflect any movement post the Tory conference. Given the general consensus was that the Tories had a neutral to positive conference we should not expect a downward move. It is a reflection on how badly Corbyn is perceived by voters that 8 years into Tory government the opposition still trails.

It is a reflection on how bad Theresa May is perceived by voters that she still trails don’t know for Prime Minister by 5 percentage points…

Labour Now Six Points Behind Tories

YouGov have found that the Tories have opened up a six point lead in the week of Labour Party Conference. YouGov was the first pollster to spot Labour’s poll advance during the 2017 election. They have had the Conservatives in the lead consistently for the last two months.[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Boris responds to Tusk…

“I don’t want a No Deal Brexit but I say to our EU friends if they don’t want No Deal they have got to get rid of the backstop from treaty. If Donald Tusk doesn’t want to go down in history as Mr No Deal Brexit then I hope this point will be borne in mind by him too.”

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