By a 19 point margin Tory members want their MPs to back Boris according to YouGov. This follows major Tory donors coming out and saying they too back Boris. MPs will have to add this to their calculations.  Downing Street will be pleased to see both donors and members coming out in support…

UPDATE: ConservativeHome’s snap survey of party members shows 55% think MPs should vote to remove Boris, with 41% supporting him and 3% claiming they don’t know. Not quite as easy reading for No.10. Last month those figures were 41%, 53% and six% respectively…

Margin of error territory as the public no longer perceives Sir Keir as “Mr Rules”. One poll so far so will be intrigued to see if this is a trend…

At first glance, new YouGov polling out this morning makes for confusing reading: if Sir Keir gets a Beergate fine, Tory voters think he should stay on as leader, whereas Labour voters think he should go:

The general public is firmly of the view that Starmer should resign, at 46% agreeing versus 32% opposing. They also comfortably believe Starmer either did definitely or probably break the rules (54%) to probably didn’t or definitely didn’t (21%).

Labour voters seem to be more inconsistent in their views on the PM. Just 48% think Starmer should go if fined, versus 83% after Boris’s fine…

Turns out that when you stop handing out free money and threaten to put up people’s taxes your popularity goes down. Who knew?

Rishi’s job approval ratings have now entered into negative territory for the first time as inflation rises and people realise their taxes are going to go up and their spending power down. This might also be a wake up call to those backbench Tory MPs contemplating writing to Graham Brady over the summer. Rishi has a keynote speech coming on Thursday. It will not be full of good news and cheer…

A poll out in The Times this morning sees a dramatic drop in Labour’s poll lead, from nine points to three in just a week. Labour is down four points to 37% and the Tories up two to 34%.

On Saturday Opinium – the most accurate 2019 pollster – also found this same lead with identical 37% and 34% poll ratings respectively. Opinium’s poll also came with a methodology change that claims most polls giving Labour a very large lead is because of Tory voters switching to ‘don’t know’ rather than Labour. The new methodology weights the Tory ‘don’t knows’ differently, giving a more accurate picture of voting intention.

Without the methodology shift, Opinium says their latest poll would have shown a ten-point Labour lead…