Male Tory MPs Got Most Social Media Abuse

Broken down by party and gender, male Conservative candidates were the group who received the highest percentage of abuse in their mentions, followed by male UKIP and Labour candidates, and female Conservative candidates. Analysis by a research team from the University of Sheffield based on tweets from the general public; replying to tweets made by MPs, candidates at the election and other prominent politicians. They sampled just under 840,000 tweets sent in the month before the general election between 8 May 2017 and 8 June 2017.

Unsurprisingly Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May received the most Twitter abuse. Sadiq Khan in the aftermath of the terror attacks was the third most abused politician on Twitter from morons with misguided anger.

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt were the male Tory MPs who received the most abuse – according to the researchers Boris got some 8 times as much abuse as Diane Abbott. Jeremy Hunt also got more abuse than Diane . Even Tim Farron got more abuse…

This research tallies with Guido’s sense that Twitter has since the Corbyn ascendancy become more vitriolic from the left. The right just grin and bear it. The left whines about it. Twitter has improved anti-abuse systems, AI software now filters a lot of the abuse automatically. Most incoming hate-tweeters are muted and shouting at no-one. There is no denying that a lot of abuse is racially and sexually charged in a personalised way. It is an unpleasant fact of life for anyone in public life with a sizeable social media footprint…

Hat-tip: Buzzfeed

New Project Fear Report Admits It Contains “No Facts”

A new report by The UK in a Changing Europe is getting a lot of play on the BBC and the Remain media this morning. Goes without saying that the authors are EU-funded sockpuppets. The report is continuity Project Fear, predicting “legal morass and economic disaster” in the event of a no-deal Brexit. What you won’t read in the broadsheet write-ups is its admission that its own analysis is pure speculation and not based on fact. In their own words: “The analysis that follows is necessarily speculative… [there are] no facts about the future… [the analysis] requires a significant amount of speculation”. Wait, it gets worse…

The report uses the above table in its economic section to substantiate its claims. The table is ripped off from the discredited Treasury analysis from the referendum. The report itself admits these numbers are fantasy: “Of course, it turned out the Treasury was crying wolf over the short-term impact of a vote to leave”. Why is a report using debunked figures being taken seriously?

Change Britain point out that the report makes a number of misleading and exaggerated claims. It attempts to scaremonger about the impact of no deal on aviation, ignoring the fact that the EU is under an obligation to extend the SES to non-member states. Then there is the Euratom red herring. The report says “a no deal Brexit may mean that the UK has no established safety procedures and systems for the operation of nuclear power plants”. Of course the government is introducing a Nuclear Safeguards Bill to deal with withdrawal from Euratom.

As Gisela Stuart notes, the report “takes a misleadingly pessimistic view… and fails to acknowledge measures which will allow for continuity in the event of no deal”We’ve been here before, this is the same old stale gloom rehashed… 

Saudi Arabia “Foremost” in Funding UK Extremism

A new report from the Henry Jackson Society finds that Saudi Arabia is “foremost” among the sources of foreign funding and support for Islamist extremist ideology in the UK. The study examines the ways in which the Saudi and other foreign governments stoke Islamist thought and activities in Britain. It finds that:

  • Saudi Arabia has spent at least £67 billion promoting Wahhabi ideology abroad in the past 30 years;
  • A number of Britain’s most serious Islamist hate preachers sit within the Salafi-Wahhabi ideology” and have studied in Saudi Arabia as part of scholarship programmes, or have been provided with extreme literature and material within the UK itself;
  • In 2014 it was estimated that Britain’s Salafi Mosques had a collective capacity for a 44,994 strong membership;
  • In a minority of cases, institutions in the UK that receive Saudi funding are also run directly from Saudi Arabia;
  • Saudi textbooks are used in a number of the UK’s independent Islamic schools;
  • There have also been “numerous cases of British individuals who have joined Jihadist groups in Iraq and Syria whose radicalisation is thought to link back to foreign funded institutions and preachers“.

The report calls for a public inquiry in order to understand the foreign backing for Islamist extremism in the UK:

“What is publicly known about the foreign funding of Islamist extremist activities in the UK almost certainly does not represent the full extent of what has happened in recent years… Given that there is a clear lack of information and understanding about this subject, both among policy makers and the public, the government should start to address this issue by launching an official and public inquiry into the subject.”

May has been suppressing a government report on funding of extremism for over a year – likely because it reveals Saudi culpability. She could begin by making those findings public…

What Austerity? Public Spending Down Just 0.2% Since 2009

There’s a renewed focus on the politics of ‘austerity’ in the wake of the election, with some senior Tories using the result to proclaim “austerity is over” and endorse even more borrowing, taxes and spending. This fiscal truth bullet is much needed: research from the TaxPayers’ Alliance shows that public spending is just 0.2% lower than in 2009-10. When you look at the actual numbers for 2016-17, it is clear ‘austerity’ never really happened…

  • In 2016-17 public spending was a mere £1.3 billion lower than it was in 2009-10.
  • Day-to-day public spending was £14.3 billion higher than it was in 2009-10. This is an increase of 2.1 per cent.
  • Per household, public spending was £1,121 higher than it was in 2007-08: £28,529
  • Spending on welfare for pensioners was 12.1 per cent higher than it was in 2009-10.
  • In 2010-11 and 2015-16 there were real-terms budget increases for international development and health.

Some departments have faced more efficiencies than others, but overall the level of public spending has barely been touched since 2009. A reminder to the Gavin Barwells of the government not to take leave of their senses and embrace Labour’s fantasy economics – they will always be able to promise more free stuff…

Wonks Pan Mayism: Job Losses, Higher Inflation, Living Beyond Our Means

Red Theresa’s manifesto means job losses, higher inflation and Britain living beyond its means for a quarter of a century, say the experts:

Institute of Economic Affairs:It’s concerning that we may be seeing the advent of a Conservative Party which fails to understand that economic and social problems are more likely to be eased by free market solutions than by increased state intervention, however well-intentioned… An increased burden of regulation and further government interference in price and wage setting will raise costs, undermine competition and reduce labour market flexibility, resulting in job losses and higher inflation. The delayed timetable for eliminating the budget deficit suggests that the Conservatives’ commitment to fiscal discipline is continuing to weaken.”

Centre For Policy Studies: “According to the Conservative Party’s fiscal target reported in the press today, the UK is set to reach a budget surplus by 2025-26. This will mean that the UK has lived beyond its means for a quarter of a century… this fiscal target is disappointing. It should be seen as a ‘worst case’ scenario. The next government must aim to achieve a budget surplus at an earlier date.”

Confederation of British Industry: “The Conservative manifesto has an Achilles heel – in a global race for talent and innovation UK firms risk being left in the starting blocks because of a blunt approach to immigration.”

Institute of Directors: “Businesses will worry that interventions will disrupt the normal flow of commerce… interventions in the labour market must be handled delicately, with trade-offs for businesses. Any new employment regulations must be consulted on in depth to ensure that they do not have unintended consequences. The manifesto states that the Party does not believe in ‘untrammelled free markets’, but they must also recognise that governments have limitations.”

Privately Tory MPs and Cabinet ministers know it, too…

May’s Energy Price Controls Savaged By Experts and Her Own Cabinet

Theresa May’s interventionist energy price cap has whacked share prices this morning: Centrica is trading at the lowest level for 15 months. The wonk world is savaging the policy:

Adam Smith Institute: “Freezing energy prices was a very bad idea when Ed Miliband proposed it. Yet two years after the electorate rejected it Theresa May is putting forward the same idea and rebranding it a ‘cap’. The facts on the ground haven’t changed, yet just like workers on boards and the living wage, Red Ed’s Zombie Policies are on the march.”

Institute of Economic Affairs:Introducing a cap on household energy prices would be a clumsy and counterproductive government intervention that could have an adverse effect on the energy market. A cap would likely backfire with companies finding some way around them: either by pushing prices higher now in anticipation of the cap or by increasing their lower prices to offset the cap at the top”

Centre for Policy Studies: “The claim that an energy price cap will save households £100 a year is by no means a guarantee. In fact, an intervention of this kind could be detrimental to competition in the market, meaning that this reform could end up doing more harm than good.”

Taxpayers’ Alliance: “Crude diktats such as this suggest that the government simply doesn’t understand the consequences of these ill-thought-out policies.”

Social Market Foundation: “Energy companies will inevitably recoup the costs of this cap elsewhere, which may mean higher prices for people who have shopped around and switched tariff to get themselves a better deal.”

CBI: “A major market intervention, such as a price cap, could lead to unintended consequences, for example dampening consumers’ desire to find the best deal on the market and hitting investor confidence.”

Market analysts RBC Europe: “This decision by May is clearly as much a political as it is an economic one. This intervention could create a worse deal for customers on average.”

Here were members of Theresa May’s Cabinet attacking Ed Miliband’s price cap in 2015:

Michael Fallon: “We have not seen intervention in industry on a scale like this since the 1970s when they tried to control the price of bread.”

Boris Johnson: “Miliband says he will imitate the catastrophic policies of the emperor Diocletian, by imposing a price freeze on energy bills for the 20 months succeeding the election.”

Don’t buy the Tory spin, this is the same sort of market intervention that caused the Tories to claim PM Miliband would lead Britain into a Venezuelan dystopia… 

CPS Corporation Tax Report Reveals Labour Black Hole

This morning’s Centre for Policy Studies report will be worth noting when Corbyn responds to the Budget later. Their new research out today finds that reducing corporation tax from 28% to 20% has helped increase growth and profitability leading to a rise in receipts by 28% since 2011. Labour’s policy is to increase corporation tax to 21.5% to fund £15 billion of extra spending per year. Yet the CPS finds that such a hike would only raise £5 billion, leaving Labour with a £10 billion funding gap. 

Labour have pledged to spend the corporation tax money 11 times already: on the adult skills budget, supporting British steel, ending public sector pay restraint, reintroducing EMA, scrapping tuition fees, extending pension credit, reversing Universal Credit changes, pensions triple lock, social care, the NHS and PIPs. And now the experts say it won’t raise anything like as much as they need. Ammo for the Tories when Corbyn gets up to respond to Hammond…

Gove SpAd Henry Newman New Open Europe Director

Guido understands former Michael Gove SpAd Henry Newman has been appointed as the new Director of the Open Europe think tank. He replaces acting directors Raoul Ruparel, who left last year to work for David Davis, and Stephen Booth, who becomes Director of Research. Brainbox Newman is a sound hire, he has a very strong knowledge of Whitehall and is respected in the Lobby. Before advising Gove he worked for Francis Maude at the Cabinet Office during the reform of trade union Pilgrims. Open Europe is drying out, under Newman expect them to embrace leaving the EU and promote a liberal, outwardly-looking Brexit. Congratulations…

Bank of England Must Stop ‘Depending on Kindness of Strangers’ to Bolster Economy

We’re fast approaching the eighth anniversary of UK interest rates being lowered to 1%. This is unprecedented, as is QE. This “unconventional monetary policy” is having severe economic consequences, argues Brian Sturgess for the Centre for Policy Studies in Stop Depending on the Kindness of Strangers.

In the foreword, Sir Martin Jacomb writes: “The idea that credit should be cheap, that savings are pointless, and that borrowing levels do not matter, is contrary to common sense. Harm is being done to individuals, to businesses and to the next generation.”

Sturgess warns these policies have failed to stimulate economic growth and encouraged ‘zombie capitalism’ and the rebuilding of corporate balance sheets ahead of productive investment, among multiple other side effects, contributing to the kind of unfairness that Theresa May and Donald Trump have both highlighted. It’s time to grow up and return monetary policy to normal, or we could be in for even greater pain.

Content produced and sponsored by the Centre for Policy Studies.

IEA Wonk Could Be Trump’s EU Ambassador

Institute of Economic Affairs advisory council member Dr Ted Malloch is being interviewed by Donald Trump this week for the role of his EU ambassador. Theodore Roosevelt Malloch, to give his full name, is a distant relative of President Roosevelt who Maggie Thatcher once dubbed a “global sherpa” thanks to his decades of work at various economic conferences and institutions. It’s good news for Britain if Anglophile Malloch gets the job, he tells City AM:

“In the UK, Brexiteers can take heart from the victory of another anti-establishment figure. His political sympathies for Brexit could lead him to prioritise a trade agreement with the UK once the country leaves the EU. It will also ensure a stronger US-UK Special Relationship.”

And his views on Brussels are sound too. He told Brexit Central last year:

“The elite that dominates EU decision-making is managerial, bureaucratic and socialist,” he says, “with a view to higher taxation and redistribution of wealth — all qualities the EU elite tout proudly, despite growing populist sentiment among an increasingly economically pressed middle class in virtually every EU-participating country. The US and the UK have cast their lot in the same direction and the Anglosphere will not only survive but thrive…

Would they want the United States to join anything like the EU — a federal superstate that curtails sovereignty? Of course the answer is NO! We wouldn’t want that in any way, shape or form. And the British already decided not to become part of the flawed euro currency and the European Central Bank. So here’s an interesting and novel alternative no pundit is yet suggesting, and I say it only half facetiously: why not hook up our horses together?”

Make the special relationship great again…

Gloomy Wonks are EU-Funded Europhiles

Britain will be “older, more unequal and blighted by Brexit”, according to a gloomy new report from the IPPR think tank. Apparently there will be a decade of disaster and misery caused by the Leave vote. Two things the Guardian didn’t include in their write-up: The IPPR was formerly run by the head of the Remain campaign Will Straw. It is funded by the EU. Probably worth mentioning…

Cable’s Ex-SpAd Giles Wilkes Heading to Downing Street

Usually reliable sources tell Guido that Giles Wilkes, the ex-SpAd to Vince Cable who is currently writing the Lex column and FT leaders, is joining Downing Street in the New Year. He will be covering the corporate governance and industrial strategy policy brief. His appointment shows how far the government has moved on from the free market neo-liberalism of the last three decades…

Nice guy. Big Remainer and Lib Dem obviously. Giles is vehemently opposed to Brexit and tightening up on immigration – so his policy differences with the PM are only on the core goals of Downing Street. As an ex-wonk from CentreForum he can be too clever by half, he was one of the few LibDems who thought tuition fees were the right thing to do, so he has the required classic political awareness and sensitivity of an autistic wonk. Obviously being an “expert economist” and former bookmaker he managed to publicly lose a bet to Guido on the direction of inflation…

His appointment will infuriate the right of the Conservative Party. Wilkes once described tax cuts as “gambling with taxpayers money”. Giles seems not to understand that it is their money in the first place. Mind you he did apologise for calling Guido “innumerate” after he lost that bet to him.

Guido was unable to confirm the appointment at the time of going to pixel despite reaching out to Wilkes.

N.B. SpAds wondering what he will be like to work with can watch him pontificating about SpAds here.

Fight Poverty, Not Ratios

Dan Jarvis is getting a lot of media play ahead of his Westminster Hall debate this afternoon highlighting the government’s shrinking of the cross-departmental civil service Child Poverty Unit from 23 staff down to 10. Jarvis argues that

“We are living through the biggest increase in relative child poverty in a generation. The Institute for Fiscal Studies predict that without changing course we will see a 50% rise by 2020.”

Sounds horrific, child poverty is going to rise by 50% in 3 years! Stop. Look around. Infant mortality has fallen, most health indicators are improving, even childhood obesity has peaked. How can child poverty be set to increase by 50%?

It is a ratio, not reality. As the economy strengthens middle and upper incomes recover at a faster rate than lower incomes – in part because of an unlimited supply of cheap labour from the EU – the ratio between the two rises, so the child poverty ratio rises. Even as household incomes rise for the less well off as well…

The creation of the Child Poverty Act (2010) was one of the last ideological acts of a Labour government that knew it was likely to lose the general election held two months later. It attempted to legislate against inequality, against people getting richer. The numbers show that absolute poverty, real poverty, where you can’t afford necessities, is falling as worklessness falls. Relative poverty, where you can’t afford as much as richer people, is not really falling – this is not a problem. Child poverty is not about ratios. Abolishing the Whitehall bean counters and focusing on work-based paths out of poverty is the way forward.

Labour talk a good game on poverty – it remains a fact that the unemployment rate always increases under Labour governments, this can have the effect of flattering the ratios. The best real child poverty counter-measure is working to support your family. No amount of redistribution, no ratios, no welfare measure can surpass the effectiveness of bringing home a wage to support your family.

Core Labour Vote There For UKIP’s Taking

A report out this morning from the National Centre for Social Research gives weight to the theory that Labour’s core vote is there for UKIP’s taking. 70% of voters in local authority rented homes voted Leave, as did 68% of those in housing association accommodation.

66% of those earning less than £1,200 per month backed Brexit, as well as 53% in Wales, 58% in Yorkshire, 54% in the North West and 58% in the North East.

70% of people who said their financial situation was a struggle backed Brexit, as did 59% of those identifying as working class.

Even 40% of ‘young working class Labour voters’ backed Brexit. The report asks:

“Could there be a re-alignment of party politics along the cleavages identified? Can the Labour Party remain a strong force in working class and low income communities?”

With numbers like these Paul Nuttall will be rubbing his hands…

Minister Slammed Letting Fees Ban Just 8 Weeks Ago

The big Autumn statement announcement pre-briefed to today’s papers is that the government is banning letting fees. This is yet another u-turn by Theresa May – just 8 weeks ago her housing minister Gavin Barwell publicly dismissed the proposal as a “bad idea”. Such a bad idea that May herself voted against it in 2014, and the Tories voted the same policy down again in 2013. Kate Andrews from the Institute for Economic Affairs says:

“The Chancellor can come in and not have to commit any of his own spending to do something that seems like it’s trying to help those who are just managing. But of course this is him skirting around the issue of the housing crisis altogether… Politicians will implement the dumbest policies to avoid actually addressing the issue.”

As the National Landlords Association explains, tenants will still foot the bill:

“Philip Hammond lacks any understanding of how the sector works. Agents will have no other option than to shift the fees on to landlords, but adding to landlords’ costs will only push more towards increasing rents.”

Yet another Miliband policy gimmick pinched from Labour’s 2015 manifesto. The politics make sense, the papers have written it up kindly, but even the minister knows the policy is a dud.

UPDATE: Barwell speaks:

“It is the nature of the job that you have to defend current policy even when you’re working to change it.”

Adam SPLIFF Institute: Legalising Cannabis Could Add £1 Billion to Treasury Tax Pot

cannabisAfter California voted to legalise cannabis, several MPs are backing the Adam Smith Institute’s new report calling for the same. It is a terrible tragedy that people get criminal records and go to jail for smoking something less harmful than alcohol…

Sam Bowman, the Executive Director, said making criminals of otherwise law-abiding  people “makes an ass of the law” and the only sensible approach is to legalise and regulate a product used regularly by millions of Britons. The ASI report: The Tide Effect says the tax revenue could add £1 billion to the Treasury pot and the £50m a year it costs dealing with cannabis offenders could be slashed. Worrying that the ASI is seeking new things for the government to tax…

Institute For Government Slap Down “Wrong” Times Splash

ifg

After their front page yesterday unravelled, the Times have doubled down by reporting that the Institute for Government says Brexit is causing “chaos” and an “existential threat” to some departments in Whitehall. Well, the Institute for Government are not happy with the Times. Their head of research Dr Hannah White says:

“To be clear – this article is wrong to say Institute for Government has warned of an ‘existential threat’ – we reported this as the view of a source.”

The IFG researcher who is quoted in the article, Joe Owen, has retweeted Dr White’s statement that the Times article is “wrong“. Two Brexit doom-mongering Times splashes in two days fall apart – this ‘fake news’ problem is getting worse…

Brexit Inflation and Interest Rate Signals

carney-cpi

The Bank of England’s inflation target is 2.0% – with the fall in the pound inflation is set to overshoot to between 2.5% and 4.5% depending which rune reading economist you believe. When the 2% target is missed by 1% or more Carney has to write to the Chancellor explaining why he has missed his target. He’s been writing those letters for most of his term…

Inflation has now crept up to 1% after knocking along at zero for a while. Even at the extreme end of forecasts inflation will not reach the levels seen before the great taming of inflation in the 80s. (Unless the QE unwinding is a disaster, which is not impossible.) Having read many papers on the subject Guido is none the wiser as to how the world’s Central Banks can go cold turkey from the QE opiate without a very bad come down. In any event, at these levels interest rate policy is now symbolic, market loan rates are increasingly detached from base rates. Firms are not going to make or break investment decisions because base rates are 0.25% or 0.5%.* May is right that we need to see rates rising, to head off inflation and to boost confidence.

Nothing would more clearly signal that the Brexit apocalypse is not upon us than the Bank raising base rates. Normalisation of monetary policy has to happen. Or at least the Bank should signal the beginning of normalisation…

*Fans of reflexivity and paradox will contemplate the post-referendum rate cut with joy. Carney implies it boosted the economy, critics say it was unnecessary. Did it boost confidence that the Bank of England was ready to do whatever or was it a way for Carney to claim credit for his gloomy predictions not coming true?

Centrist Think-Tank Concludes There’s No Progressive Majority

dead-centre

This morning the centrist, cross-party Social Market Foundation held a well attended seminar headlined by Chuka Umunna, Nicky Morgan and Nick Clegg. It felt like a wake for the Labour Party. SMF claims – on the back of research from Opinium – that there’s no progressive left-leaning majority in the country – the majority of voters hold “traditionally right-wing views” that will guarantee a “healthy majority” in the future for the right-wing parties.

The wonks categorised voters’ attitudes into eight political tribes/parties that share very distinctive political views. Despite the majority of voters self-describing as “centrist“, most voters actually identified with centre-right and right-wing political attitudes.

From the report:

On the whole, our analysis makes more cheerful reading for those on the right, than on the centre or the left. The two largest tribes, making up around 50% of the population, hold a range of traditionally right wing views, ofering a solid foundation on which to aim for the 40-42% of the vote which normally guarantees a healthy majority under our electoral system. These groups share a desire to see immigration reduced to below 100k a year and were both solidly pro-Leave in the EU referendum.

The progressive tribes are fragmented, disagreeing on openness to the world and attitudes towards the welfare state and taxation. This is bad news for the current Labour Party as the think-tank finds massive differences between so-called “Democratic Socialists” and “Community” party voter blocs – traditionally known as Labour supporters – while both tribes agree on socialist policies towards capitalism, they diverge on supporting the EU or having an internationalist approach.

SMF also implies that the centre-ground is now being occupied by traditional right-wing politics. So did Cameron succeed in occupying the centre-ground or did the Conservative Party’s modernisers end up pulling the centre-ground rightwards?

City Boys Staying in London

surprise

Mark Carney is up in front of the Treasury Select Committee this afternoon where he is going to have to explain why he cut rates and re-started QE prematurely to Jacob Rees Mogg, who thinks “He acted too early in my view. […] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Alan Sugar on Jeremy Corbyn:

“It’s clear you alluded to students refunds to get votes from young impressionable people. You are a cheat and should resign.”

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