Today will be the new crunch moment in the Brexit saga, with the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) starting its journey through Parliament. The Government thinks it has the votes to pass the WAB at second reading, meaning we can expect a quasi-meaningful vote at 7pm tonight with the bill’s second reading. Number 10 are also feeling bullish about their ability to stave off Customs Union and Second Referendum wrecking amendments, with previously Customs Union-flirtatious Tory MPs making clear they will not seek to amend the bill.
Guido understands that some in Number 10 wanted to set the timetable for passing the WAB through the Commons over the course of just one day, as happened with the Surrender (Benn) Act, the timetable eventually settled on 3 days, which will stretch proceedings through to Thursday. A Government source tells Guido that this is so MPs don’t have much of a leg to stand on when complaining about timing. Telling Guido that “anyone trying to complain about how much time they have to pass the WAB is clearly trying to wreck it.” The programme motion vote to set the timetabling for the passage of the bill is expected to be the closest vote of today, with Remainers viewing it as their best chance to delay the process and make the UK miss its Brexit deadline…
It’s hard to imagine how any MP could change their minds about the WAB over the course of the next week just through more time. They have all already made up their minds. Nevertheless, expect a lot of time wasted on theatrical complaining in the chamber today…
Theresa May bought herself a stay of execution at the 1922 Committee last week after they agreed that she could have one last chance to try to get her deal through. May promised to bring the Withdrawal Agreement to the Commons the week commencing 3rd June before announcing her resignation timetable…
Andrea Leadsom’s stand-in Mark Spencer has revealed the Government’s parliamentary business for that week – predictably there’s no sign whatsoever of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. Spencer optimistically added that the Government might yet try to bring the WAB on Friday 7th June, the House isn’t even due to be sitting on that day. To be fair if she does announce her resignation timetable before then, as expected on Friday or Monday, it would render it pointless. Nonetheless it’s still a promise broken, how many more will she break before she finally leaves?
After Theresa May inexplicably gave the worst speech of her career two days before an election where the Tories were already set for a pasting, the mood has darkened so dramatically among the Tories that many have decided they cannot wait any longer to get her out. Dozens of Tory MPs who reluctantly backed her at MV3, including Boris and Dom Raab, have now publicly denounced her new “bold offer” including the promise of a vote on a second referendum and the numbers are still going up and up. 1922 Executive Committee member Nigel Evans will today move a fresh rule change motion before the committee. With the intention of removing the Prime Minister as soon as possible.
Executive Secretary Evans tells Guido that “I’ll move a rule change… it may even be forthwith… with immediate effect as a one off.” Guido hears the committee is more likely than ever before to accept a change in the rules that will shorten the protected time following a leadership no confidence vote from twelve months to six, or even the swift one off scenario, meaning May could be forced from out 12th June, or even as early as next week. Gove says the WAB itself will be published today – if the details are as ugly as expected it could be the final straw. If she goes before Monday she won’t even pass Gordon Brown’s tenure…
