ONS 3.9% Figure Understates Jobs Shock, Unemployment Set to Hit 9%

Flash data from the ONS has shown a grim picture for employment. The impact has clearly started to bite – not least into public finances. The furlough programme has obscured much of the damage to come. It’s not going to be pretty when that scheme is eased this summer. The main takeaways are:

  • The number of employees declined by 450,000 in April
  • Claimant count up by 824,000
  • 7.4 million ‘temporarily away from paid work’
  • Average hours worked per week have collapsed to less than 25 hours. The average is usually 32-33 hours…
  • Job vacancies have fallen by 170,000, down to 637,000 vacancies in February to April 2020. This is the largest quarterly change since records began, larger than the previous record fo a fall of 106,000 vacancies in the last quarter of 2008…
  • Unemployment in the UK is officially estimated at 3.9% in Q1 2020. This is a mere 0.1% higher than in the previous quarter

How many of the furloughed will really have a job to return to when the pandemic furlough measures expire – in many cases it is just a delayed redundancy –  government hopes about the furlough scheme saving jobs don’t ring entirely true. ING economist James Smith estimates that we will likely see unemployment hit 9%. The longer lockdown continues the fewer furloughed will have jobs to return to…

mdi-timer 19 May 2020 @ 09:00 19 May 2020 @ 09:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
YouGov Predict Unemployment Has Risen by 5%

New findings by YouGov suggest that 1 in 20 Britons has already lost their job due to the outbreak of Coronavirus, with a further 9% saying they’ve had their hours and or pay reduced. If correct, this would translate to a new UK unemployment rate of 7% – more than two million people…

Whilst in ordinary circumstances the figure would be worrying, the Government may be breathing a small sigh of relief at this stage when comparing to other countries:

  • Norway’s unemployment rate has gone up 8.6% since the end of February – taking the country’s out of work rate to its highest level since the 1930s.
  • In the US, the Treasury secretary has supposedly told Republican senators unemployment could rise to 20% – double that seen during the great depression; with the Federal Reserve’s Bank of St. Louis predicting 30%.

Britain won’t know for a while how well Rishi’s furlough plea kept unemployment from shooting up, though the last statistics from the ONS on 17th March show employment only rose by 0.2% – despite the UK already being in the midst of the pandemic. The country waits with bated breath for the next official figures…

mdi-timer 25 March 2020 @ 08:32 25 Mar 2020 @ 08:32 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
UK Fintech Growth Hits Record High Despite Brexit

UK fintech growth is at record levels this year: UK fintech startups have already managed to secure £2.34 billion of investment in the first six months of 2019 – despite the expectation that Brexit would happen in March. The sector is well on course to smash last year’s record of £2.66 billion.

It comes just after yesterday’s ONS figures showed wages rising at 3.6%, the fastest rate since 2008, while unemployment is at a 45-year low and inflation is steady at its target of 2%. Still waiting for Osborne’s “immediate and profound” economic shock…

mdi-timer 17 July 2019 @ 10:49 17 Jul 2019 @ 10:49 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Unemployment Down By 50,000 Despite Brexit

New unemployment figures released today show that unemployment fell by 47,000 in the three months to August, taking the UK unemployment down to just 4%, and youth unemployment down to its lowest level in history.

Overall, 338,000 new full-time jobs added were added to the UK economy last year – while the number of part-time jobs fell slightly. Guido is still waiting for that 500,000-800,000 unemployment spike that Remain promised us…

mdi-timer 16 October 2018 @ 10:14 16 Oct 2018 @ 10:14 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.2%, Lowest Since 1975

  • Unemployment rate falls to 4.2%, lowest since 1975
  • Employment rate highest since records began in 1971
  • Public sector pay up 2.5%
  • Private sector pay up 2.3%

Despite Brexit, or because of Brexit?

mdi-timer 17 April 2018 @ 09:38 17 Apr 2018 @ 09:38 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Unemployment Rate Lowest Since 1975

Worth keeping on about this. During the referendum Osborne and the Treasury said unemployment would rise by 500,000 in the immediate aftermath of a Leave vote. Today’s new figures:

  • Unemployment fell 57,000 between April and June 2017
  • 157,000 fewer than for a year earlier
  • Unemployment rate is 4.4%
  • Down from 4.9% for a year earlier
  • The lowest since 1975

It was a big fat fib…

mdi-timer 16 August 2017 @ 09:42 16 Aug 2017 @ 09:42 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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