Polls Show Dave Immigration Speech Flop

YouGov have the first polling figures on immigration since Dave’s big speech, and they aren’t exactly happy reading for the PM. His proposals were welcomed, but 1 in 4 still see UKIP as the party most trusted to deal with immigration. Clegg going for votes he’ll never win by taking a tougher stance and getting under the skin of almost his entire grassroots in the process hasn’t exactly paid off either…

UKIP Bullish Over South Shields Second Place

The maths does not look great for anyone except Labour in the rotten borough of South Shields, but then that’s what was said about Rotherham where UKIP managed to come second last year. A spokesman for the party was boisterous about their chances in the seat.

“UKIP expect the momentum that has been gathering over the past year to become apparent in South Shields, where we will be selecting a candidate who will work hard to highlight how the ordinary people of South Shields have been let down by the old three parties and Labour in particular. Those who want to send a message to both front beches know the best way to do it, and that is to vote UKIP.”

Sources in the party are hopeful of a second place: “it is well within our grasp”And the bookies agree…

UPDATE: Keep an eye on John Tennant’s  website. He works for UKIP MEP Derek Clark and fancies his chances as the candidate:

UKIP Vote Against EU Budget Deal

This one will surprise a few people: UKIP’s MEPs have voted against the EU budget in today’s vote. Labour sources have this afternoon been stressing to Guido how their own MEPs had voted with the Tories, but that hasn’t stopped UKIP from opposing the deal on the grounds that it didn’t offer a big enough cut. A senior UKIP source tells Guido:

“Fact is that this is a posturing piece of flam from the parliament. UKIP voted against such a paltry cut, we demand a 100% cut in Britain’s contribution to the EU’s flabby, wasteful budget.”

One way to stir things up…

UPDATE: Roger Helmer explains the UKIP dilemma:

“Our first instinct of course is to vote against.  We don’t want to be in the EU, and we don’t want any EU budget at all.  No matter how little the EU costs us, it’s still too much. But on the other hand, we’ve always called on the EU to spend less, so how can we vote against a reduced budget?  Just suppose, for the sake of argument, that in a tight vote our dozen UKIP votes tipped the scales and defeated the proposal.  If no agreement is reached, the default position is a real-terms freeze — so the budget would go up in nominal terms.  How do we fancy a headline “UKIP vote leads to increased EU budget”? Tough call.  But of course there’s an up-side in terms of voter perception, if the budget deal falls.  The news for the voters would then be “Member States agreed a cut, but the European parliament effectively vetoed it”.  That should increase public anger and resentment against the EU and all its works.”

U-Kipping in the European Parliament

Roger Helmer and team hard at work this morning…

UPDATE: Friends of Roger tell Guido: “He must be dreaming of a time when we are no longer there.”

Via @juliegirling

Rich's Monday Morning View

The framed original artwork of Rich’s Monday Morning View is now available on eBay.

Fabricant: UKIP Message Connects, Tory Voice Muffled

Tory vice chairman Michael Fabricant has given his critique of this morning’s by-election result:

“Nigel Farage is right: the UKIP message “connects” with the electorate & it’s not just Europe but crime, immigration, etc too. In Eastleigh UKIP appealed to protest voters but also to Blue Collar Conservative voters… This was ALMOST certainly a protest vote.  But no-one should write UKIP off. They will do well in the European elections (their very raison d’etre). The Conservatives have similar policies to many in UKIP (more than with the Lib-Dems!), but we need a clear and focussed voice. The Conservative voice is muffled and not crisp. It does not clearly project Conservative core policies or principles. Everyone from the PM downwards must focus on the economy, immigration, crime, Europe and not allow other side policies to distract.”

How can the Tories win in 2015? Truly one of the great questions of our time

Voters Jump From Main Three to UKIP

Food for thought for the leaders of the main three parties in Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling. Over a fifth of those who voted Tory in 2010 jumped to UKIP yesterday. Interestingly, almost the same proportion of Chris Huhne’s voters chose the UKIP candidate this time round. Diane James also took 17% of Labour’s 2010 vote. Just 59% of 2010 Tories voted blue and only 51% of those who voted for Huhne backed Mike Thornton. UKIP are taking votes from all three parties…

WATCH: "If the Tories Hadn't Split Our Vote We'd Have Won"

A good line, but a good point too…

Eastleigh Tories Hutching at Straws

They really don’t want to finish third…

H/T @billykenber

Tories' Black Belt Plan to Chop UKIP Vote

The Tories are definitely not worried about UKIP, that’s why they have asked one of their top MEPs to come up with a three point plan to beat them. David Campbell Bannerman, who was UKIP deputy leader before returning to the Tories, highlights the dangers in a “creative” briefing note seen by Guido:

“Judo teaches you to use the strength of an opponent against them. Applying this analogy to UKIP, we should acknowledge the one strength of UKIP: they seem to be in tune with the majority of the British population on the EU issue. Multiple polls show that over 54% of the public and two-thirds of Conservative Party supporters (You Gov Poll August 2011) want to leave the EU. They may appear to be more in tune with traditional Conservatives on other policies such as immigration, grammar schools or the environment”

Rather bizarrely, Campbell Bannerman goes on to tell Tory candidates to disrupt UKIP pub meetings: “let the pub landlord know that people attending these meetings must not be given any free food or drink as this is classified as treating”. That’ll make the difference in the Euros…

Ex-LibDem Eastleigh Mayor Backs UKIP: "Left in Disgust at Lies"

Meet Glynn Davies-Dear, the weirdy-beardy former LibDem mayor of Eastleigh who has jumped ship to UKIP ahead of next-week’s by-election.

“Why did I leave the LibDems? I left in disgust at the lies and the broken promises. The Liberal Democrats no longer care about the people, they only care about themselves.”

Former LibDem councillor Andy Moore has also crossed the divide this afternoon. Ouch.

UPDATE: Amusingly he appears on a leaflet for Maria Hutchings.

Return of the Tory Chihuahuas

Back during Nigel Farage’s 2010 election battle against Bercow, Guido discussed the significance of chihuahuas in British politics. ChIHUAHuas are Conservatives In their Heads, Ukip AHeart. Three years later and they are back: Sir John Major has taken to quoting Guido word for word:

“Members with Conservative heads and UKIP hearts cannot be placated. Whatever is offered to them will be insufficient. They will demand more. They will only be satisfied by withdrawal. 

Down in Eastleigh the Tory’s eurosceptic candidate Maria Hutchings is doing her utmost to weaken the UKIP support; with love rather than the foolish dismissal favoured by Warsi, Dave, et al:

“Many of those people have views that are patriotic, which are [not dissimilar from her own]. And not that dissimilar from many people in our party, either! But no, I’ve never been tempted to move because the over-riding factor at the moment is to get this country back on its feet”.

That core Conservative vote who are UKIP in their hearts could be the difference in Eastleigh, and at the next election. When it comes to Tory chihuahuas, their bark is nothing compared to their bite. Guido will be keeping a close eye on the effect of Hutchings’ tone. 

UKIP Choose Speedwatch Candidate for Eastleigh

UKIP have chosen Diane James as their candidate in Eastleigh, a Surrey councillor and healthcare campaigner. After last night’s hustings she won almost 70% of the vote. Party sources are stressing to Guido that the fact she is currently a member of Community Speedwatch in rural Ewhurst is mere coincidence. See what they did there…

UKIP Members Are Bar Fighting Hooligans, Says Dave Ally

nigel

Every year swathes of boozed-up Brits cross the channel and wreak havoc on the continent. According to one of David Cameron’s allies in the European Conservatives and Reformists group, UKIP are the prime culprits. Derk-Jan Eppink isn’t happy:

“If they get drunk they get very dangerous.

[…] Read the rest

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Another Pollster has UKIP in Third, and Not Just for the Euros

The old guard laughed when newbie pollsters Survation started showing an ascendancy pattern for the UKIP vote last year, yet today a  third pollster has UKIP at around 20% for the Euro elections and now they are giving Nick Clegg a kicking on the home front too.[…] Read the rest

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YouGov Reverse Ferret Over Harsh UKIP Poll

YouGov boss Peter Kellner has clarified this morning’s poll putting UKIP on a suspiciously low 17% for the Euro elections. With ComRes placing UKIP’s European Parliament ratings at 23% and Survation at 22% over the past week, the YouGov poll seemed considerably off.[…] Read the rest

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Dave Haemorrhaging 2010 Support to UKIP

ukip2

No pressure for Friday Dave. A damning new poll has found that one in three Conservative voters in 2010 would currently vote UKIP in the Euro elections. The YouGov poll has the Tories in second place but still haemorrhaging support to UKIP.[…] Read the rest

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Fone Farage to Rival Call Clegg this Friday

Following the “success” of “Call Clegg”, Media Guido has learnt that LBC  Radio will be hosting “Fone Farage”, after Cameron’s EU speech at 5pm this Friday

Ideally drinks will be served.[…] Read the rest

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Young Independence: Incest, Beastiality and Necrophilia Party Sources: Gay Marriage Was Tip of Iceberg

UKIP are kicking back at the youth chairman Olly Neville ‘sacked for opposing gay marriage’ story:

“It has been reported that he has been removed because of his support for gay marriage. This is not the case. However, we did point out to him that stating policy views which are in contradiction to Party policy, or mis-stating Party policy, in public media was not only in breach of his responsibilities but also contrary to the YI’s objects. 

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UKIP Sack Youth Chairman Over Gay Marriage Row

Negative briefings, leaked emails and mass resignations – last night the joys of student politics found their way right to the top of the UKIP hierarchy. As Guido revealed yesterday evening:

[…] Read the rest

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