Office for Budget Responsibility chairman Richard Hughes and member of their Budget Responsibility Committee David Miles have appeared before the Treasury Committee this morning to talk about their views on the Autumn Statement. Hughes pointed out Hunt “hasn’t adjusted public spending plans“, with “pressure pushing up on spending and down on revenues“. A government planning to get debt falling in 5 years would find that objective “certainly at risk” in the current situation. As Guido pointed out last week, debt is rising in nominal terms, real terms, and as a percentage of GDP, despite Hunt’s jubilation at the Autumn Statment. A natural result of failing to control spending…
The OBR wasn’t keen on Hunt’s claim this is the largest tax cut since the ’80s and said that’s “not a figure we’ve used” and this is only the 3rd “fiscal loosening” event since the body’s foundation in 2010. The economists said frozen tax thresholds instead have an “unambiguously negative effect” on incentives, combined with an NI cut that is “swamped” by stealth tax rises. Sunak and Hunt were probably expecting more people to be distracted by the cuts than focus on their continuing massive tax grab…
Jeremy Hunt delivered a very carefully-worded denial that he nor the Treasury was responsible for the Sunday Times’ splash that the government is hoping to cosy up to the EU with a softer Swiss-style deal. Speaking at the Treasury select committee this afternoon, he told MPs:
“With respect to the story in the Sunday Times, if you’re saying ‘Was the Treasury, was I the source of any suggestion that we should seek to renegotiate the TCA towards an agreement more like Switzerland’, the answer is no because it’s not my position and never has been. If you are saying ‘Do I believe we could remove the physical barriers to trade in the way that happens on the Franco-Swiss border, the Norway-Sweden border, maybe in a way that is relevant for the NI protocol issues on the Island of Ireland’, that has been my public position for some time.”
He later went on to imply the Sunday Times could have been mistaken on this latter point about technological solutions used on the Swiss border. A suggestion Guido reckons the Sunday Times Lobby team won’t take lying down…
Matt Hancock’s campaign for the chairmanship of the Treasury select committee has come to a premature end. Passed over by Rishi, the former Health Secretary was keen to stress he was still in play, and that “a number of people suggested I should go for Chair”. The number just wasn’t large enough…
Matt added:
“In the end there are other things on the horizon that I want to do – including finding ways to raise the profile of my dyslexia campaign and upcoming bill in parliament. Harriett’s done a great job on the committee for the last three years and she has my full support in her bid to become TSC Chair”
If you’re struggling to keep up with who’s in and who’s out, check out Guido’s handy guide.
The Treasury Select Committee is set to hear ‘oral evidence’ on Kwasi’s mini-Budget this Wednesday from a panel that looks like it was dreamt up by an FBPE focus group. The Anti-Growth Coalition’s own cast of Avengers…
The Institute for (Big) Government, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation are all sending their star performers to the show. No prizes for what Torsten Bell or Paul Johnson will have to say about a plan that actually supports tax cuts…
It was a Labour MP who provided the stand-out moment from Rishi’s Treasury select committee appearance yesterday. Siobhain McDonagh demanded Rishi name a proper tax cut he’d made:
“…it’s not a tax cut, that’s a benefit change. It’s not a tax cut. It’s a change in the taper rate to Universal Credit…you’re just desperate to find a tax cut. We’re sitting in the Margaret Thatcher room, and you hope to emulate her, but the British Prime Minister and British Tory government that you are most emulating at the moment is Ted Heath’s: low growth, and therefore high tax. Is that not the case.”
Rishi responded by saying the UK is forecast to grow at an historically high level next year, which is true, although it’s then to decline back below 2% from 2023. It shouldn’t take a Labour MP to be pointing this stuff out.
Guido can’t blame MPs for turning to Twitter during dull select committee hearings, though the perils of Zoom saw Labour MP Siobhain McDonagh interrupt this afternoon’s Treasury Committee hearing to proclaim to someone in the room with her, “Oh Margaret, I’ve done a Tweet I’m proud of!”. The Tweet in question?
There’s sheer bloody nerve & there’s @GavinWilliamson! He opens schools Monday, closes them Tuesday & threatens them with @Ofstednews Wednesday. I think @CraigDavid could write the song but if Gavin’s done this in 3 days God knows what he’ll do to pupils,teachers & families in 7!
— Siobhain McDonagh MP (@Siobhain_Mc) January 6, 2021
Guido’s not sure 20 likes is worth getting too hyped up about…
