The government has finally published its economic analysis of the Employment Rights Bill. The report highlights some issues with the legislation and gives a go at calculating the significant costs to businesses and the taxpayer. From the outset it makes clear that extra dismissal protections may “make employers less willing to hire workers,” a distortion which could completely “offset the productivity gains from more efficient employer and employee matching.” Guido has leafed through the analysis for the key points:

• Increased job switching could reduce incentives for employers to invest in firm-specific learning and development.
• Higher labour costs could also have a negative impact on the level of labour demand in the economy.
• Cutting staffing levels will “weigh on growth, unless employers subsequently invest sufficiently in capital that means increased productivity offsets the fall in employment.“
• Up to £5 billion in extra costs will be imposed directly on businesses as a result of the legislation – including a £1 billion per year cost of ending zero hours contracts. That will be a low-ball…
• Trade union reforms “may directly impact the public sector pay bill” because their bargaining power will be increased.
• On top of that “if relations remain more fractious, there could be more working days lost from strike action.” If businesses resist, that is…
• Increased costs on the public sector on local authorities.
• Small businesses will be the most affected by “five of the nine largest measures” impacting them disproportionately.
• 15% increased cost burden on courts and employment tribunals.
• Making unfair dismissal protections a “day one right” “could damage the employment prospects of people who are trying to re-enter the labour market, especially if they are observed to be riskier to hire.”
• Where businesses can’t absorb the costs they will pass them on to workers by “reducing expenditures that benefit workers (e.g. staff training) or scaling back future improvements to T&CS  (e.g. wage growth).“
• “The risks are highest for workers with the weakest attachment to the labour market.” The low-paid, disabled, and young…

The analysis relies heavily on research from Labour’s favourite think tank the Resolution Foundation, which is cited 30 times and whose former director is now a Labour MP. In the end it is forced to conclude that “offsetting effects” suggest “the net impact on growth will be small.” No wonder the government accidentally called it the “union bill” – it’s a victory for anti-market bureaucrats…

The government has been firing round an official summary of its flagship “Make Work Pay” plans to stakeholders. Today’s Employment Rights Bill contains about a third of the measures which make up those plans…

Curiously the government refers to the bill straight away as the “Employment Rights Union Bill.” Did they forget to delete the name of the working draft?

The Freudian slip won’t be much comfort to businesses and workers, who will have to deal with massive restrictions on zero hour contracts, statutory protection of “flexible working,” and a rollback of trade union legislation. As expected most changes will be subject to consultations in 2025 and the government makes clear that the majority won’t come into place until 2026. Labour has softened its rhetoric on unfair dismissal, which will now be subject to a “light-touch” statutory probation period instead of “day one protection.” The unions for whom the bill is named will be hard at work to chip away at that concession…

Labour will also establish “day 1 rights” to paternal leave as well as a “Fair Work Agency” and “Employment Rights Unit” to deal with enforcement. Large companies can look forward to being required to produce “action plans” on how to address their gender pay gaps and how to “support employees through the menopause.” A pen-pusher’s charter…

Read the full summary below:

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As Labour continues back-patting in the Liverpool Exhibition Centre, over at local socialist haunt The Casa Bar the Cuba Solidarity Campaign gathered for a fundraiser to help bypass the US’ sanctions regime against the communist country. Apart from receiving supportive speeches from Labour MPs and the Cuban Ambassador, numerous union representatives pledged their support to the totalitarian state…

Prison Officers Association general secretary Steve Gillan turned up to announce his union, the largest of prison officers in the UK, would fund the campaign to the tune of £10,000. He added that the funding wasn’t discretionary: “We’re not going to specify how that’s spent… Viva Cuba.” Union dues well spent then…

No one picked up the irony of someone representing prison officers pledging funding for a country which is currently starving and torturing over 1,020 political prisoners. They were too busy getting raffle tickets with a prize of a Che Guevara mug or flights to Cuba to notice…

The Trades Union Congress have kicked off their conference, fuelled by the fact that Labour has already conceded to many their demands. Now they’ve passed a motion calling for the Government to scrap every single one of Margaret Thatcher’s anti-strike laws. The laws that curbed the power of flying pickets, put an end to closed shops, and made secret ballots mandatory before unions could down tools. And got Britain working again…

While Starmer’s already promised to ditch Tory laws ensuring vital services like rail and fire provide a minimum level of service during strikes, the comrades at the TUC want him to go further. Steve Wright, a union heavyweight from the Fire Brigades Union warned “That’s a start, but it’s not enough,” demanding the complete repeal of all “anti-union laws”. They’ve also threatened to hold a “special congress” if Labour fails to enact its New Deal for Working People “in full” within its first 100 days in office, which is in 33 days time. Meanwhile, Aslef general secretary has stated that Trade unions will “never be content”, despite securing bumper pay rises weeks ago. They’ve taken an inch…

Motions are in for the Trades Union Congress’ annual meeting next month in Brighton. Delegates’ votes on them will decide the political and lobbying direction the TUC will take. Unions bosses have renewed energy now Labour is in and are gunning for more pay rises from a permissive government. More strikes are already on the way…

Apart from pushing for bumper pay deals, union chiefs have crafted a list of some truly insane and/or idiotic motions. Guido gives you some of the worst below:

• The Educational Institute of Scotland wants repeals of the 2016 Trade Union Act and 2023 Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Act, outlaws on zero-hour contracts, and devolution of “employment law fully to the devolved administrations.” More fun for the SNP and Welsh Labour…
• The Artists’ Union England wants a “prohibition of the use of AI in workplaces without explicit collective agreement” and “legislation to protect workers against the use of AI in workplaces.” UNITE joins in by calling for a bill that “ensures trade unions have the right to be consulted and to negotiate on the use of AI.” Luddites gonna luddite…
• The University College Union wants the TUC to lobby for “a decolonised curriculum in the prison education system.” That’ll fix the prisons…
• UNISON demands that the TUC raises “awareness of Reform’s policies for the workplace and society” and provides “training courses, resources and support for unions in tackling the politics of far right.” The cherry on the cake is a commitment to “organising and recruiting migrant workers.” Do they think staff need therapy to deal with Nigel?
• The Chartered Society of Physiotherapy wants to tackle the gender pay gap by challenging “the status quo of senior leadership positions in public services being ‘full-time’ roles.” Got to break down that “taboo of working at senior levels on a part-time basis”…
• The Royal College of Midwives demand a “campaign for mandatory neurodiversity awareness training for all NHS staff as part of their EDI mandatory training.” Just what the NHS needs to get productive again…
• The TUC Black Workers Conference wants “legislation to make ethnicity pay gap reporting mandatory and for this to become a standard practice in employers’ policies and procedures.” More paper-pushing woke drudgery…
• The FDA looks to seize on Partygate and the “betting scandal” by introducing a “fully independent body which will have the authority to independently investigate and determine outcomes of breaches of the ministerial code, free from political interference.” Maybe Labour can fill that with its cronies too?
• The British Dietetic Association wants “a statutory right to accessible, affordable and nutritious food.” How’s that going to work?
• The Bakers Food and Allied Workers Union demands the UK sets a “national maximum working temperature and put in place a heat wave furlough scheme.” Which means they’ll do a “Heat Strike” this summer “when temperatures go above 36 degrees.” If you can’t take the heat, get out of the bakery…
• Accord wants to raise capital gains tax to income tax levels and apply national insurance to investment income, as well as ending “special treatment” of AIM shares. ‘Poof’ goes Labour’s promised “growth”…
• The Fire Brigade Union is pushing for a motion to “repeal of all anti-union laws and for positive legal rights for trade unions.” Goodbye to the Thatcher revolution…

Union bosses are no doubt itching to unveil some of their even kookier ideas once they secure more concessions from Labour over the coming months. “Get round the table” because “the adults are back in the room”…

Border Force officials at Heathrow Airport have just announced fresh strikes. PCS, representing them, have expansive demands for civil servants including a reduced working week. The domino effect has begun – below are some of the public sector unions co-conspirators can expect will be demanding more taxpayer cash something to the tune of ASLEF or Junior Doctors’ bumper offers:

• Rail and Maritime Transport Workers Union: Demanding the same bumper pay offer given to ASLEF.
• Public and Commercial Services Union: Demanding a “cost-of-living” pay rise, 35 days annual leave, and “a significant shortening of the working week with no loss of pay.” Civil servants will be jumping with excitement…
• Local Government: Unite, Unison and GMB are now demanding a 5-6% pay rise for local government workers after Reeves capitulated to the pay review bodies.
• Royal College of Nursing: Likely to continue campaign for a separate pay structure that increases nurse pay at a faster rate.
• General Practitioners: GPs are demanding an 11% pay rise. In line to be granted…
• Junior Doctors: Planning on striking again in 2025 even after Labour’s 22% pay rise.
• National Education Union: Campaigning for higher pay, a lower workload, and free school meals.
• National Association of Schoolmasters Union of Women Teachers: Demanding a national commission on pay to hike it even more.
• Police Federation: Calling for higher pay.
• Fire Brigade Union: Took a 4% pay rise from the Tories, campaigning for more.

The RMT’s Mick Lynch told the Times, external he expected a “parallel, synchronised offer” to ASLEF’s. It’s the Tory record causing tax rises, is it Rachel?