Eyebrows are being raised at the fact that 120 out of 121 MPs voted in the penultimate round of the leadership race. It’s so close that one out of Leader Rishi Sunak and Chairman Richard Fuller must have voted, which they usually wouldn’t…
Tory Chairman Fuller told Christopher Hope that he wouldn’t be voting, leading Hope to conclude that “Rishi has definitely voted.” However, despite Fuller’s promise, a campaign source tells Guido that they saw Fuller voting and “suspects he was backing Kemi.” Bob Blackman won’t be pleased – Guido makes no comment – but the candidates’ spin teams are furiously speculating about the secret ballot. With 24 hours to go, the race is getting more and more heated…
UPDATE: A Rishi source tells Guido: “Rishi didn’t vote. He has maintained neutrality and hasn’t voted in any of the parliamentary rounds.” Must have been Fuller then…
Tory leadership contenders are only starting to declare this week. Behind the scenes it has been a flurry of activity for some time. Robert Jenrick had new MPs over to his Westminster pad for drinks last week as hopefuls fire out countless invites to Tory MPs for a quiet chat or drink. Guido hears some invites have been sloppily fired out to organisers of rival campaigns…
Leadership operations are being run by informal whips (usually close friends) who sound out support among MPs (which is often done by the hopeful themselves), and spinners who brief the media offensively and defensively. Guido gives you the guide to the teams so far below…
Badenoch
Cleverly
Jenrick
Patel
Tugendhat
Mel Stride
Braverman and Atkins are two other names bandied about – they don’t have fully fledged teams. At the 1922 Committee meeting last week Rebecca Harris said that Tory whips wouldn’t be endorsing leadership hopefuls and instructed MPs not to discuss it with them. The whips who did want to endorse candidates have left the whips office accordingly…
It’s the week for formal declarations as Tory leadership hopefuls bring their campaigns out of the shadows. Cleverly was first out of the traps last night in a momentum-seizing move…
Guido hears Captain Tom is due to declare tomorrow/late tonight. He spent last week gathering MPs and supporters to talk up his mission of redefining the “One Nation” message. Meanwhile, chatter around SW1 is that Kemi Badenoch is due to announce very imminently…
UPDATE: Campaign website https://tomforleader.uk goes live as Tugendhat announces via The Telegraph. “I want to be completely open about what I’m doing. I am not just running to be the next leader of the Conservative Party. I am running to be the next Conservative prime minister.”
After several weeks of inertia – during which the Labour government has been operating essentially unchecked – the Conservatives have finally sorted out their leadership election timetable. The new leader will be announced on November 2nd. That’s more than 100 days from now, with nominations closing next week, on 29th July…
Guido understands opinion was split on the Conservative Party Board – the organ that signs off a proposed timetable which is then ratified by the 1922 Committee Executive. The chief ‘go long’ argument is the idea of ‘testing’ each candidate thoroughly in the media – even though the main front runners are well known to Tory MPs and members. That only works if the media is properly interested…
Those who argued for a new leader to be in place at conference in October (rather than a month later) submitted that the party simply doesn’t have enough money to sustain the delay – and during the long interregnum, Labour would be able to get away with murder. With Sunak holding the fort until November, the Tories are facing 100 days of irrelevance…
What emerged from the smoke filled rooms is ‘a classic fudge’ according to one MP involved in the deliberations – a long-ish timetable which puts a new leader in place by the end of 2024 but not by conference. Oddly:
As one former Tory minister put it: ‘Did Keir Starmer write this’?
As the Tory vultures circle round to replace Rishi Sunak, a poll of Tory members by YouGov out today shows Kemi Badenoch appears to be the favourite:
Of course, any members polls are irrelevant if the Tories use the same rules until the parliamentary party has chosen its final two contenders. As Guido highlighted recently, treat the polls with extreme caution…
UPDATE: An interested party gets in touch to say Tory donor private polling shows Robert Jenrick beats Suella 55-45 in a run-off between the two.
The Daily Mail splashed cold water on Priti Patel’s hopes to become the next Tory leader this weekend. A private survey of the Tory membership revealed that she is the least popular Tory candidate, with the print headline: “Priti? She’s too short to be leader, say party faithful”. Needless to say she’s not Priti pleased…
Guido hears Patel is “on the warpath” over the “sexist” briefing, cursing Mail editor Ted Verity to MP colleagues and claiming he is a misogynist. The former Home Secretary is said to be apoplectic with rage as the private polling reveals her leadership chances appear to be a non-starter. Burning bridges before they’re built…
