It looks like PopCon is gearing up to be more than just a movement pushing for free-market ideas. It appears Director Mark Littlewood and the Popular Conservatism team are prepping for a Tory leadership election after the presumed general election loss, planning to put up a free-market leaning MP to ensure no wets are selected. Littlewood is reported to have 70/70/70 strategy in his plans to install a Trussite leader. Get 70 MPs’ and 70,000 members’ support, 70 days after the election. Though the numbers may be tough for PopCon to reach when polls are saying that the Tories may only keep 140 MPs after the election, most of which are likely to be One Nation…

Nigel Farage has said Tory members want him to lead the party instead of Rishi Sunak following their double by-election defeat. He’s probably not far off…  

The honorary president of Reform told BBC Radio 4 this afternoon:

“I think if you asked Tory Party members right now, they’d vote for me to be leader and not Rishi Sunak and that I have no doubt at all and that’s backed up by polling.”

Meanwhile, he still keeps fans waiting with bated breath as he refuses to rule out a return to politics…

In July last year Angela Rayner finally admitted that Boris was the “biggest threat” to Labour’s hopes at the last election. A week prior, Pippa Crerar admitted that Boris was the Tory leadership contender Labour would fear most:

Boris Johnson.

— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) July 11, 2022

Now more Labour MPs aren’t holding back on their greatest fear: a Boris comeback…

Paul Waugh’s latest piece in the i carries some interesting quotes from Labour MPs:

“there is a strong strand of thinking among some Labour MPs that also really fears a Johnson return. They have picked up the same doorstep feedback as Tory colleagues in “Red Wall” areas, with Labour-Tory switchers from 2019 saying they’ll only vote Conservative again if they “bring back Boris”.

One senior Labour MP even tells me they suspect a restored Johnson could attempt a snap election this October. “He’ll say ‘I got some things wrong, but I got you Brexit, I did my best on Covid and I was right about Putin. Give me a new mandate to finish the job.’ And unlike us, he keeps it simple.”

“The fact that we would pile up voters in Holborn and St Pancras is utterly irrelevant when Boris can help them hold on to seats in the north. When my voters hear us say ‘tax the rich’, they think ‘are they going to tax me next?’ When we talk about ‘the poor’, they think ‘they’re not interested in me’. Boris is a roll of the dice, but he could make them the largest party [in a hung Parliament].”

Interesting stuff. Not long now until the local elections, Rishi…

Since the reshuffle concluded on Sunday, Guido’s had a look at the final make-up of Rishi’s first government. While plenty of column inches have been dedicated to the racial, gender and geographical make-up of the Cabinet, Rishi promised the government as a whole would be one of ‘all the talents’ and wouldn’t be packed full of only his core supporters. Naming no names, Liz…

In light of this Guido can reveal the number shape up like this: Rishi’s government has 93 MP ministers; excluding the undeclared who may or may not have backed him, 43% of these appointees backed him in the final round of MP voting in the summer. Versus 57% who plumped with Liz.

This stands in contrast to Liz’s government, which had just 17% of its publicly declared ministers backing Rishi.

It’s unhelpful to compare Rishi’s government with the October leadership election given his overwhelming support from many Liz and Boris backers by the time nominations closed. If you do go off the most recent contest, Rishi’s government draws just 5% of ministers from MPs who didn’t back him. It may be a cabinet drawn from many wings of the party, whether it includes any talent is another question…

Using the figures we have as of Sunday evening – Rishi on 153, Boris on 76, and Penny on 28 – we have 72% of MPs having made an indication. Is that enough to base an inference upon? Let’s try…

The known preference percentages break down as below:

Apply those percentages to the unknown 100 MPs we get

• Rishi 153 + 60 = 213
• Boris 76 + 30  = 106
• Penny 28 + 11 = 39

Allowing for rounding errors and switchers that is in the “close to call” territory for Boris. One source in the Rishi camp on the other hand told Guido that he thought there were “too many headbangers” undeclared and Boris would pass the threshold. We’ll know soon enough…

No slick logos, Hollywood video or glossy graphics. Lessons have been learnt…