Welsh Tory sources have been left distinctly unimpressed with the news that Alun Cairns is the third senior Tory MP to defect from Rishi to Liz in the last week, following Chris Skidmore and Robert Buckland. The Mail got the scoop yesterday afternoon, reporting Cairns now believes Truss is best placed to save the Union:
“At the outset of the campaign, I met Rishi Sunak to discuss the future of the Union and was content with his responses. I chose to support him.
However, as the campaign has developed, the risks to our Union have become more apparent. There is a need to break out of the current orthodoxy. The future of our Union depends on it.
For this reason, I have concluded that with the positive ambition for our country and imagination she has shown, alongside her strong track record as a reformer, Liz Truss is best placed to secure our Union.”
Guido’s since been sent Cairns’ full endorsement of Rishi, only sent to Glamorgan association members, and his reasons for backing Rishi were far more numerous than those he now cites in his Mail op-ed. Cairns didn’t just meet with Rishi to “discuss the future of the Union”, however to “question his commitment to reduce taxes and making the most of Brexit”. His takeaway from the meeting wasn’t just ‘contentedness’, it was incredibly enthusiastic:
“His focus and knowledge of what should be done to achive both was enourmously reassuring and will make a significant difference to the lives of everyone. Economic competence must go hand in hand with any plans to reduce taxes”
“We have two excellent candidates that could lead our nation and we must win the next election. I believe that Rishi Sunak is in the strongest position to beat Labour and this is why I will be voting in his favour.”
A senior Welsh Conservative source told Guido “It’s clear to everybody what’s happened here. Alun has seen which way the wind is blowing and flip flopped. The guff about the Union is just a poorly constructed smoke screen for what is ultimately a selfish, careerist leap for the bandwagon.” Even more remarkably, Guido’s source is a self-professed Liz supporter. Double ouch…
Rishi’s monopoly on ex-Chief Whips backing his campaign is said to show how badly out of alignment the Tory parliamentary party and the membership have become over the last few years. Mark Spencer (2019-2022), Julian Smith (2017-2019), Gavin Williamson (2016-2017), Mark Harper (2015) and Andrew Mitchell (2012) are all backing Sunak. Michael Gove’s allegiances (2014) are also well rumoured…
Today, however, Liz gets a major boost. 11 whips have come out and back Truss over the preferences of their former bosses. A major coup, especially given it was thought many were going to remain undeclared.
They know the way the wind is blowing…
Good Tuesday morning. There are 18 days left of the Tory leadership campaign. Today the candidates travel to Scotland, with a sold-out members’ hustings kicking off this evening in Perth.
Today’s new policy:
Cost of Living:
In other news:
“This latest poll confirms what we are hearing around the country: Liz’s bold and ambitious plan is resonating with voters who know she will deliver for them. It’s clear that only Liz can beat Keir Starmer at the next election.”
Today’s new policies:
Two big policy briefings from Camp Rishi today: one on Scotland, another on the Civil Service. First up…
Scotland:
“For too long the SNP has been able to obscure its failures by picking and choosing the data it publishes – I would change that, ensuring the Scottish Government’s record could be held to account, while ensuring our public services are better joined up. Scottish senior civil servants will also face greater scrutiny, with the Permanent Secretary to the Scottish Government required to appear annually at a UK Parliament Select Committee hearing.”
Civil Service:
Rishi is also unveiling his plan to “shakeup” Whitehall, which is composed of six main parts:
Bookies Odds (Previous in Brackets):
Lord Ashcroft has published yet more polling data on the Tory leadership race, which once again shows Liz comfortably ahead amongst Tory voters. 38% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 back her over Rishi at 29%. Another third were undecided. Of the 10,000 polled in total, however, both Rishi and Liz were beaten by Starmer head-to-head…
Starmer’s lead here against Truss can be explained by name recognition. As other recent polling has showed, the more the public sees of Liz, the more they warm to her.
Arguably the most revealing part of Ashcroft’s data is the word cloud of 2019 Tory voters’ views on the candidates: the most common words used to describe Rishi were “rich”, “out of touch”, “economy”, “dishonest”, and “backstabber”. For Liz, “unsure” was by far the most common, followed by “trustworthy”, “strong”, “capable”, “bland”, and “boring”. Ashcroft himself notes:
“Those with the most positive things to say about Truss – such as “down to earth”, “trustworthy”, “capable” and “strong” were to be found close to peak support for the Tories. Positive responses for Sunak – such as “competent”, “clever” and “trustworthy” – were to be found further from the epicentre of the Conservative vote, further towards liberal territory and more removed from the strongly Brexit-supporting quadrant of the map, where words like “snake”, “backstabber” and “typical politician” were more likely to be found.”
So much for Rishi’s star power in the Red Wall, then…
Good Friday morning. There are 22 days left of the Tory leadership campaign.
Cheltenham Husting Performance
In other news:
Today’s new policy:
Also:
“It comes after George Eustice, the Environment Secretary, called in The Sunday Telegraph for more water companies to introduce urgent restrictions.
Leadership contender Rishi Sunak is understood to be supportive of the position, while his rival Liz Truss is not.”
Hustings performance:
Bookies Odds (Previous in Brackets):
While MPs don’t have to register donations for a month after receiving them, some swottish leadership candidates have submitted their homework early in this month’s register of members’ interests. Tom Tugendhat has been especially comprehensive, registering a whopping £123,674.44 in donations for his leadership campaign. Rishi and Liz especially have been very quiet so far. Here’s the full list…
Kemi Badenoch:
Suella Braverman
Tom Tugendhat
Rishi Sunak
While Rishi registered just over £3,000 in office space – before moving his swelling team from Westminster to Holborn – Guido also notices his name cropping up in another member’s declaration. Three days ago Mark Fletcher, Bolsover, registered that Sunak paid £5,046.82 for a fundraising dinner in his constituency. Unfortunately for Rishi, Mark has declared for Liz…
So far neither Liz, Sajid nor Nadhim have registered a penny in donations; it’s not unlikely Rishi will also have paid for much of his campaign out of his own pocket. Nadhim did make one registration however: four tickets to a Billie Eilish concert valued at £480…