Tory Lead Down 7 With Panelbase

It’s a trend… Looks like Corbyn is going to poll above Miliband…

SamCam and Dave Shock Naked Bedroom Photo

Via Samantha Cameron’s InstagramHappy Anniversary… 

May Mocks Telly-Obsessed Politicians, On Telly

Notable that of the ten or so questions from the public at May’s event in Bath this afternoon, none were about the TV debates. All three questions from broadcast journalists were about… the TV debates. Does anyone in the real world care?

Osborne’s Immigration Hypocrisy

George Osborne is whacking the government on immigration again, splashing today’s Standard with an “exclusive investigation” making clear his view that the tens of thousands target is a fantasy. All very well and probably true. But less than a year ago Osborne was telling voters that he would meet the target. This exchange is from June 8, during the referendum campaign:

“I think it is achievable… It’s an ambition we intend to reach… In the manifesto that the country voted on last year, we set it out as an ambition. I believe it is an ambition we will achieve.”

Now Osborne says the target is “economically illiterate” and “wishful thinking”. He was lying to voters during the referendum. Rich of him to accuse May of the exact same fib…

Paxo Tells May She’s “A Blowhard”

May Whacked On Dementia Tax

Quentin Letts Calls May a “Glumbucket”

She was not amused!

Tory Placards: Compare and Contrast

Before the manifesto Tory activists taking part in photo opportunities with the PM would tend to hold up placards bearing the words “Strong and stable leadership in the national interest“. The word “Conservative” was seldom seen, “Theresa May’s team” took top billing. At the Tory campaign relaunch today gone were the old slogans, replaced by “The Best Brexit deal”, “A Secure Nation” and “Vote Conservative”. Not so strong and stable?

Gogglebox Focus Group’s Damning May Verdict

Never mind the polls, last night’s Gogglebox focus group said it all about the damage done by the social care fiasco:

“I think she’s sh*tting a brick now because she called this election thinking she’s a 100% certainty, and they’ve not costed the [manifesto]… They made all the promises not realising people aren’t as stupid as they think and won’t believe everything they say.”

“It is half-baked.”

“You’ve changed it already because you’ve been caught out, Theresa!”

“‘Nothing’s changed’? They’ve done a u-turn and ‘nothing’s changed’?!”

“Really just goes to show that they can say any old sh*te and they don’t have to come good on the deal.”

“You said you weren’t gonna cap, and now you’ve capped. Explain.”

“I like that he’s not letting her get away with not answering.”

“What she should do is she should admit, and say, yes it wasn’t structured properly, we are tweaking it.”

“Do you know if I was Andrew Neil I’d be tempted to overpower her and say, just admit it!”

Sounds like they’d vote for Brillo…

Tories Board Outrage Bus Over “Monstrous”, “Extreme” Jez

Michael Fallon has been deployed:

“Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime Minister of our country in less than two weeks’ time yet he has said only days after one of the worst terrorist atrocities this country has ever known that terror attacks in Britain are our own fault… Let me spell something out for Mr Corbyn: There are no excuses for what was done in Manchester… He and his team come from an extreme and ideological world that is too quick to make excuses for the actions of our enemies and too willing to oppose the measures and people that keep us safe.”

Boris is outraged:

“Now is not the time to do anything to subtract from the fundamental responsibility of those individuals, that individual in particular, who committed this atrocity and I think it is absolutely monstrous that anybody should seek to do so.”

He’s almost as angry as Amber Rudd:

“It is absolutely outrageous to suggest that there is any link, any justification, for the events that took place in Manchester with the UK’s foreign policy.”

Corbyn’s speech was infantile guff of course, though it was considerably more moderate and toned down than his previous statements on terrorism. Tory outrage today a little confected…

UPDATE: May goes studs in:

Davis SpAd Chappers Out

Was always a bit of an odd move for Chappers to go from Project Fear to the Brexit department. Good luck in the undisclosed new job (expect inevitable rumours that the former Mail pol ed could reunite with his old boss George Osborne at the Standard). Another senior SpAd departs…

Security Minister Condemns “Appalling, Twisted” Corbyn

Security minister Ben Wallace has condemned Jeremy Corbyn’s “appalling” timing for giving an ideological foreign policy speech three days after a terrorist attack, and says his argument is “twisted“. Andrew Neil interviews Corbyn tonight. Asking tough questions about his views on terrorism might have been off limits so soon after the attack. Jez has made it fair game now… 

Brillo Hammers May on Honesty

Via @liarpoliticians

The social care section of the Andrew Neil interview tonight was bruising for Theresa May. Brillo hammered her again and again on her lack of honesty. The strategy of u-turning and pretending “nothing has changed” isn’t working – it looks hugely dishonest and the Tories get no credit for ditching an unpopular policy. 

She didn’t fare much better on cash for the NHS, Brillo asked her three times where the new money is coming from and didn’t get an answer:

Pretty bad on immigration too:

May refused to give answers on what the social care cap will be, where the NHS money comes, whether she would rule out an NI rise, how many would lose their winter fuel allowance, what she thinks the consequences are of a no deal Brexit, and how long she plans to stay as PM. No positives for the Tories at all, except Corbyn has to face Brillo on Friday…

May Also Misleading on “Dementia Tax” Origin

At her speech this morning Theresa May chastised a reporter for using the phrase “dementia tax”, insisting it is a term “used by Labour to try and scare people”. Hmm. The first person to use the phrase “dementia tax” in an article was the Spectator’s Will Heaven, a former Tory speechwriter. Hardly a Labour supporter. “The Dementia Tax Backlash” was the front page splash of yesterday’s Mail on Sunday. Hardly a Labour supporting paper. It was first tweeted by a chap called Phil Lewis, who appears to have nothing to do with the Labour Party. Even the Tories have used the phrase “so-called dementia tax” in Google adverts targeting people searching for the issue. Labour might be using the phrase “dementia tax” as well, but they are far from the only ones…

Weak and Wobbly May U-Turns and Exaggerates “Fake Claims”

Theresa May has u-turned on her dementia tax policy and “clarified” that it will include an absolute limit on how much people will pay in care costs. The Tories are failing to put a figure on that limit. An exasperated May repeated “Nothing has changed”. That’s not true, this is a change in the policy, with no detail, uncosted.

May also bizarrely repeated the term “fake claims” to describe how the policy had been portrayed by Corbyn and the media. It is correct that Corbyn got the Tory social care policy wrong. But it is Trump-level alternative facts from May to describe the fears people had about the original policy meaning they could lose their homes as “fake claims”. They were not “fake claims”, they were fears about the policy as it was originally announced, made not just by Corbyn but by politicians and columnists on the right as well. That is why they had to u-turn. More “weak and wobbly” than “strong and stable”. So much for taking the tough decisions…

UPDATE: The Tories are arguing that Labour’s “fake claims” led people to believe people could lose their homes while they were still alive, rather than after they died. The Tories are correct that under the original policy no one would have lost their home while they were alive. Though not being able to pass your home onto your children surely also counts as losing your home…

WATCH: May Speech Live

May Pretending She Backed Brexit

Theresa May is on the campaign trail in North Wales today, visiting Wrexham, where 59% of voters backed Brexit. In her speech this morning the PM is going to effectively pretend she backed Brexit, mocking the politicians who made “hysterical warnings” about what would happen if the country to Leave, airbrushing out her own role in those warnings:

“People here in Wrexham and across Wales chose to ignore the hysterical warnings of Labour, Plaid Cymru and Liberal Democrat politicians in Cardiff Bay, and voted to leave the EU.”

The Stronger In graphic above shows it wasn’t just Labour, Plaid and LibDem politicians who made such warnings. This speech is pushing it considering May suggested Brexit would make terror attacks more likely…

May Manifesto Bombs

Tory lead slashed with two pollsters following the manifestos:

YouGov / Sunday Times

CON: 44% (-5)

LAB: 35% (+4)

LIBDEM: 9% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-)

Survation / Mail on Sunday

CON: 46% (-2)

LAB: 34% (+4)

LIBDEM: 8% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-1)

Dementia tax proving unpopular. Though this election’s wobble weekend still sees the Tories comfortably ahead by 9 and 12 points…

Tax Burden to Hit Highest Level Since 1969 Under May

Under Theresa May the tax burden will rise to almost 35% of GDP, the highest level since 1969 when Harold Wilson was in office – who was also a PM who liked to introduce price caps. This of course makes a mockery of the mealy-mouthed manifesto pledge to “keep taxes as low as possible”. The Tories say a vote for Labour means more borrowing and more taxes, the same is true of them…

Graph via Ed Conway.

May Manifesto Rejects Free Markets and Individualism

Theresa May has doubled down on the bashing she gave the libertarian wing of her party at last year’s Conservative conference, setting out her and Nick Timothy’s principles:

We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism.

[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Alan Sugar on Jeremy Corbyn:

“It’s clear you alluded to students refunds to get votes from young impressionable people. You are a cheat and should resign.”

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