It’s a big test for the Tories today. Voters are heading to the polls for a double by-election in both Wellingborough and Kingswood, two current Tory holds. Labour needs an 18% swing in Wellingborough (Tory since 2005) and 11% in Kingswood (Tory since 2010). A much easier task than their recent by-election wins. If the Tories lose both seats tonight, they’ll have reached their most by-election losses in a single parliament since the Second World War…
Both parties have been managing expectations, with the Tories insisting they will lose both (they’re probably right) and Labour officials saying “winning these seats was always going to be a massive challenge”. Meanwhile, no Tory MPs have been to either seat, though CCHQ are insisting that it’s not an order, they’re just being “realistic”…
Despite Labour’s atrocious week, a quarter of 2019 Tory voters are switching to Labour on the doorstep in Wellingborough. Meanwhile Reform are calling this campaign the “best-received yet” and it’s telling that the Tories are focussing more on Reform than Labour in this seat. Kingswood results are expected between 4-5 am tomorrow and Wellingborough by mid-morning. Rishi may be in double-trouble tomorrow…
It’s Valentine’s Day, and the Tories and Labour press teams are celebrating the annual festival of love in the only way they know how: using the theme to attack each other. No love lost here…
Labour’s digital attack team took to drawing up a mock Spotify Valentine playlist for Sunak, twisting romantic song titles to rip into Rishi’s poor track record on achieving his pledges. Probably not a playlist Sunak will play tonight…
Labour is red, the Tories are blue, Rishi Sunak has failed, he’s done nothing for you. pic.twitter.com/1jI0bxGUzx
— The Labour Party (@UKLabour) February 14, 2024
The Tories took a raunchier choice for a doting gift to Sir Kier, making a twitter thread of “Starmer Sutra” all the different positions the Labour leader can take. He may have preferred some flowers, though it is a compliment to his flexibility…
The Starmer Sutra is the perfect Valentine’s Day gift for the politically promiscuous.
Written by the father of u-turns, this is the definitive how-to guide on flip-flopping into different positions on anything.
*Only available in paperback and spineless editions* pic.twitter.com/Lb3e1fr07k
— Conservatives (@Conservatives) February 14, 2024
So far they’ve nine posts of times Starmer has flip flopped. Here’s one…
STARMER SUTRA, POSITION 9:
The non-dominatrix. pic.twitter.com/jd4BjuY9KI
— Conservatives (@Conservatives) February 14, 2024
Roses are red, violets are blue, the Tories are down, though now Labour is too…
Another week, another dire poll for the Tories. The Country Land and Business Association has a Survation poll which shows more than half of the 100 most rural seats in England will swing to Labour at the next election. 51 of these traditionally Tory heartlands. That’s a big loss considering they currently hold 96 of them. From breaking through the Red Wall to losing the Blue Wall in 5 years is quite an achievement…
Among those polled to lose their seat include:
- Jeremy Hunt
- Jacob Rees-Mogg
- Lucy Frazer
- Mark Harper
- Mel Stride
- Richard Holden
- Anne-Marie Trevelyan
- Andrea Leadsom
- Mark Spencer
- Graham Stuart
- Andrew Griffith
- Liam Fox
- Thérèse Coffey
- Julian Smith
- Karen Bradley
- Jeremy Wright
- Brendan Clarke-Smith
- Bernard Jenkin
- Bill Cash
With by-elections this week expected to bring more losses for the Tories, and GDP stats potentially showing the UK is in a recession, this is just the start of another hard week for Rishi…
Within moments of each other, Nickie Aiken and her husband Alex have announced they’re ditching Westminster. Nickie has served as the MP for Cities of London and Westminster since 2019 and her husband Alex Aiken is resigning as Executive Director for Government Communication. Alex has been in the spin doctor role since 2012 – a long time in politics, and has announced he is off to the UAE. The statement read. “Alex Aiken will leave the Civil Service in April to take up a new role as a communications advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the United Arab Emirates.” Ending their marriage with the government…
Guido hears many Tory MPs planning on leaving Westminster are holding fire until booted out at the election – at which point they can take home a Loss of Office payment, which happens to be double the statutory redundancy entitlement they would otherwise take home. So far there is a continuing drip of announcements…
Read Nickie’s statement below:
Conservative Party Chairman Richard Holden has hinted at the prospect of Nigel Farage donning the Conservative Party colours. Holden told GB News that the Tories would “consider” Farage’s “application” based on its “merits.” Far from a denial, Holden laughed, affirming that it’s “definitely not” a closed door…
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage hasn’t ruled out a political comeback. On GB News Wednesday night he teased the possibility of re-entering the Westminster scene, revealing if he returned, his “aim must be to win the general election after next…we need to have a credible opposition to Starmer who can come back and win the election after that.” Nigel for the Tories in 2029?
Rishi’s had a hard start to 2024. Rebellions, resignations and damning polls, though he might be cheered up today to see that most Tory voters seem to think he’s the best of a bad bunch. Take the small wins…
Ipsos released a poll last night that showed there were “no obvious alternatives” to Rishi as leader. Happy reading for Rishi as 42% of 2019 Tory voters had a favourable view of him, similar to Boris Johnson’s ratings. Meanwhile Jeremy Hunt is trailing on 38%, James Cleverly on 28% and Nigel Farage was virtually neck-in-neck with Sunak. It does say something about the party’s talent pool…
