Rumours swirling round SW1 of various plots to oust Rishi after the local elections may be keeping up the pressure on the PM for while. First we had Kemi, then Penny, and now Tom Tugendhat’s name is cropping up. Badenoch and Tugendhat have dismissed the claims. Tory MPs have been saying the mood has very much changed in Parliament this week after the Sundays’ splash of the ‘plot’. Whether or not they’ll be successful in getting a new leader before the election is yet to be seen, though judging by the polls, the Tories will likely have a new one after the election…
Robert Jenrick, a man who appeals to the Tory right on issues such as immigration, has told friends that he will be running for leader, whenever that contest is – before or after the election. He did refuse to rule out running for leader back in January. It looks like Suella may not be the Tory right favourite anymore, so perhaps the final two in a contest may be whittled down to Jenrick and Penny/Tom. Whenever the new leader is put in place, it’ll be about fighting for the next election, not this one…
While rumours swirl in SW1 of various Tory plots to oust Sunak, despite his claims that this year will be a “bounce-back year” for the government, latest polling continues to show the public aren’t convinced. Deltapoll’s latest figures pin Labour with a 23 percentage point lead, polling at 46% to the Tory’s measly 23%. Surprise, surprise…
Meanwhile, Reform UK hit third in the polls at 12%. More interestingly, for under 35-year-olds, Reform are only 1.5 percentage points behind the Tories, polling at 5.5% for the youths compared to 7% for the Tories. It’s no shock to the system that 70% of under-35s would vote Labour, though it shows Reform aren’t just hitting home with the more right-of-centre over-65s. It’s not about the next election but the next generation, as they say…
Hat-tip: Sam Freedman
While Lee Anderson had his bags packed from his office in Parliament last night and is already being turfed out of the exclusive Tory haunt Carlton Club, the Reform Leader Richard Tice is still convinced that many more Tory MP defectors are to come. Speaking to Sky News this morning, he said, “we’re confident that other MPs will feel they’ve been abandoned“. Earlier this week Tice said that nearly ten Tory MPs were in “advanced talks” to move to Reform UK, an eventuality that Senior Tories say would lead Sunak to call a snap election. When the Tories are hitting rock bottom in the polls and many MPs (especially Red Wall ones) looking unlikely to keep their seat, Guido wouldn’t be surprised if a few more didn’t jump ship…
UK political parties have been filling up the coffers in the run up to the election, totalling a whopping £22,660,735 in donations and public funds in 2023 Q4, according to the Electoral Commission. The figures reflect what the parties are saying about when polling day will be…
The Tories swept up £9,785,903, a big drop from Q3, where they raked in £15,758,593, fuelling further confirmation that the election will be after Spring, especially after that damp squib of a budget. That or the Tories are finding it more difficult to cling on to donors…
Meanwhile, Labour collected £8,541,036 in funds, up by a third from last quarter, which include £6,457,256 from donors and £2,083,780 of public funds. While Labour are gearing up for an election, the Tories still seem reluctant to call one anytime soon…
The March instalment of Conservative Home’s cabinet league table has ministers continuing to fall into single-digit and negative ratings. A record eleven ministers are now in the red, two more than the previous low record of June 2023. Exactly half of the entire cabinet is now unfavourable to Tory members…
Penny Mordaunt has shot up seven points from last month, with outspoken performances in the chamber and no major negative press. Badenoch and Mercer make up the rest of the top three, whose points are now well above the rest of the slipping pack. Illegal Migration Minister Michael Tomlinson retains his off-the-cliff position at -36 points. Gove is losing favour as Sunak slips down again on last month, approaching his worst ever score of -25.4% before Christmas. It doesn’t look like Hunt’s dead fish budget today will do much to buoy the members…
While Tory MPs and plotters are tangled in their own messy affairs, it seems Tory voters aren’t exchanging vows of affection either. A new poll from More in Common finds that love does recognise barriers. Only 28% of 2019 Tory voters would cherish a marriage between a loved one and another Tory. Meanwhile, 39% of 2019 Tory voters would love their friends and family to walk down the aisle with a Labourite. Perhaps the Sunak’s cameo in Grazia will be enough to sway hearts that tying the knot with a Tory isn’t so bad…
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Co-conspirators can decide for themselves…
