The Telegraph splash this morning will make glum reading for the Tories as the most detailed survey in five years from YouGov shows the Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout as big as their defeat in 1997, when Tony Blair entered Downing Street. The survey of 14,000 people put the Tories retaining just 169 seats, while Labour take 385, giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority. A huge swing from just 5 years ago when Boris won an 80-seat majority.
Along with more than half the Tory seats won in 2019, eleven cabinet ministers, including Jeremy Hunt and Penny Mordaunt, are expected to lose their seats. Lord Frost wrote in The Telegraph that the “stunningly awful” results are thanks to dissatisfaction on policy, above all, immigration rather than Labour popularity. Rishi will be hoping he can finally get flights off the ground to Rwanda soon, though even if that does happen, it’ll likely not be enough…
According to YouGov, three-quarters of the voters who have left the Tories are Leave voters, with Reform UK drawing millions of voters from the Conservatives, costing the Tories 96 seats, and helping Labour take the keys to Number 10 – without even winning a seat. The former Brexit party will attract both those traditional Tory voters and the Brexit voters who switched from Labour to Conservative in 2019 in order to “Get Brexit Done“. This is what happens when you have a government and Number 10 full of Remainers.
Lucy Frazer, the culture and media secretary, issued a much anticipated Public Interest Intervention Notice last night over the UAE-backed bid to take control of The Telegraph. Fears over how a UAE backed ownership will “affect the free expression of opinion and accurate presentation of news” have halted the process. The PIIN means the Competition and Markets Authority and Ofcom will each have until January 26th to investigate the deal. Though if further issues arise, it could take up to six months…
Read the Frazer’s full statement below:
The race to capture The Telegraph and associated assets grinds on in fund boardrooms and SW1 back room talking shops. Guido brings you the latest whispers from the rumour mill…
Guido has already reported on Paul Marshall’s potential bid, which could join forces with David Montgomery’s National World bid – though other partners are in the running for Marshall. Other horses rumored or confirmed to still be in the race include:
- DPG Media, a Belgian media company, whose tagline is ‘connecting by touching’. Nice…
- RedBird Capital Partners, a large PE firm with UAE links
- SRMG, the titanic Saudi media arm
- Lord Rothermere and his Associated Newspapers Ltd
- Former Telegraph editor Will Lewis’s consortium
A key talking point is the timetable. Access to the data room has not yet been granted – and most bidders will hold their cards close to their chests until they have inspected the state of the internal numbers. Speculation about the date of the general election may push the timetable forwards – with uncertainty over ownership impacting editorial operations. It will be critical for any buyer to be able to navigate inevitable Competition & Markets Authority interest. Moreover, the winning bid will need a mix of strong capital backing, editorial credibility and to pass the litmus test of media world gossip, Which mainly consists of hundreds of hacks nervously clucking about their jobs.
Guido has not confirmed the rumour that Steve Bannon indicated his interest to the Barclays and was told not to even bother trying to bid. It’ll take an experienced media hand, not just a money man, to pull off this deal…
GB News bankroller and investor, Sir Paul Marshall, is interested in making a bid for the Telegraph Media Group. According to Sky News‘ Mark Kleinman, Marshall has hired investment bankers to advise on the move, although sources “close” to Marshall – who also funds UnHerd – tell Kleinman he “hasn’t yet made up his mind” on the move. Hiring investment bankers suggests he’s got more than just a passing interest…
The Spectator is also in play, although Guido hears Rupert Murdoch has his eyes on that prize. If Marshall wants both, he’ll have to pay up. Even then, the Barclay family are still putting up a fight; The Times reported last month that Nadhim Zahawi is acting as a middle man to help the Barclays retain the titles, with Zahawi himself appointed chairman of the group if he successfully brokers a deal with the UAE. Either way, someone’s going to have to open their wallet…
