Guido hears Number 10 Chief of Staff Liam Booth-Smith took the gloves off last night at “SpAd school” – the weekly get together for the political operatives who lubricate Whitehall’s processes. According to Guido’s moles, Booth-Smith gave the team a stern lecture over their attitude towards the next election, with any pessimists told if they “don’t believe we can win” then they should resign now and get it over with. He went so far as to say he’d even help quitters find a new job if they’re honest enough to throw in the towel now. His promise that any SpAds who lost their jobs in future reshuffles would be looked after – suggesting that more will go – did not go down well in the room. Multiple sources say it was the most “honest” and frank they’d ever seen him. The Liam Booth-Smith Job Centre Plus is now open in Downing Street…

Guido reported yesterday on the underlying tensions within Number 10, with Liam Booth-Smith said to be shoring up his position with new hires like his friend Jamie Njoku-Goodwin. Last night’s Cummings-esque tough talk at SpAd school was clearly a wake-up call for demoralised SpAds after a wasted summer recess. Perhaps the beatings will continue until morale improves.

The upcoming government ‘reset’, with a wider (much-delayed) reshuffle before the King’s Speech, is part of the coming turnaround plan. The reality is that this morning another poll confirmed the Tories are trailing Labour by 20 points, and brought news that house prices fell 5.3% last month. According to pollsters Techne, confidence in the government’s ability to deal with the country’s priorities over the next 12 months has fallen over the summer. It now stands at net minus 17. The clock is ticking…

The latest poll from Techne, released today, shows Labour increasing their lead over the Conservatives, which stands at 19%. Labour is now on 47% to the Conservatives’ 26%. As a reminder, this time last year Labour’s lead was only around 5%…

It’s not all bad news for the Conservatives. A poll from Survation last night saw Labour’s lead shrink by 1% – to a measly 17%. Whilst YouGov also saw a decline of three percentage points. Though Rishi shouldn’t take too much comfort from this; it was down from a stonking Labour lead of 25%…

The Conservatives have made further progress breaking into Labour’s polling lead, with a new poll showing the gap closing by 2%. In the latest of Techne’s weekly trackers, the Tories are now on 30%, up 1% on last week, with Labour on 44%, down 1%. Only 14% more to go…

New polling from Techne UK shows Labour still hold a 16-point lead nationally, with the Tories up by one point on last week’s data. The LibDems and the Greens have dropped one respectively.

• Labour 45% (nc)
• Conservative 29% (+1)
• LibDem 10% (-1)
• Reform 5% (nc)
• Green 4% (-1)
• SNP 3% (nc)
• Others 3%

The public’s overall confidence in the government is still net minus 9, with 53% saying they are “not confident”…

Whilst Westminster waits for the release of the report to determine Dominic Raab’s future, new polling from YouGov has highlighted another layer of the crisis facing the SNP. The party’s support in Holyrood is down 5% since March, they’re now on 38% to Labour’s 30%. It’s the lowest SNP vote share since the independence referendum in 2014.

Other findings from the poll don’t get much better for the SNP. Just 19% of Scottish voters say Humza is doing well, compared to 44% who say he’s faring badly. Neither the public as a whole, nor SNP voters, think Yousaf will live up to Sturgeon – and that doesn’t even seem to be a high bar: more voters want to see her suspended from the party than not. Meanwhile, independence support, at 46%, remains 8% behind the ‘No’ camp, on 54%. This is one set of numbers the SNP won’t find so easy to fiddle.

Closer to home, a new Techne poll has also been published today. It puts Labour on 44% to the Tories’ 31% – meaning Labour’s lead is down 2%, to 13%. It’s the pollster’s smallest Labour lead since the mini-budget.

New polling, released this morning by Techne, puts Labour on 45% to the Conservatives on 30%. This represents a Labour lead over the Conservatives of 15%. It’s the joint lowest margin recorded by the pollster since Sunak became Prime Minister.

Techne aren’t the only pollster reflecting this trend. Last week, Opinium recorded a Labour lead of just 11%, whilst on Monday, Redfield & Wilton reported a 14% margin – both of which are also the smallest since Sunak took over. Going by the polling average in February, a 14% Labour lead represents a drop of 8% in just two months.

As the “noisy” scatter graph from above UK Polling Report shows a narrowing lead for Labour trend has developed this month. Before Tory MPs get too excited, this is what it probably means in terms of seats:

All of this explains why Savanta polling director, Chris Hopkins, told the i that the days of 20 point Labour polling leads are “gone” and “If it gets much smaller I think possibly we start to get into hung parliament territory”. The SNP’s electoral collapse further complicates electoral calculations. Survation recently put the SNP’s lead over Labour at 5% – the smallest since the 2019 election. There’s still a long time to go until Autumn 2024…