A Survation poll spells doom for Jezza. The ex-Labour Leader, now an Independent candidate after Starmer gave him the boot, is staring down the barrel of defeat in Islington. He’s lagging 14 points behind Labour’s Praful Nargund, who’s forecast to get more than 40% of the vote. Corbyn’s held onto this patch since 1983, but it looks like his grip is finally slipping…
The poll, commissioned by Stats for Lefties — loyal Corbynistas —cobbled together £6,500 from supporters to see who may win the Labour strong-hold. Economics commentator Chris Giles, noted “Presumably not the result the sponsors of the poll wanted.” Meanwhile, elsewhere a play about a group of Jewish folks plotting to kidnap Corbyn is set to hit the stage at the Edinburgh Fringe…
Rishi Sunak is predicted to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election, according to a Survation poll for The Telegraph which surveyed 18,000 people. The Tories are predicted to win a shocking 53 seats, with around three-quarters of the Cabinet voted out. Labour are estimated to win a whopping 516 seats and a majority of 382 – double that won by Sir Tony Blair in 1997. Meanwhile, the LibDems are predicted an impressive 50 seats. A ‘super majority’ to say the least…
Arron Banks has commissioned Survation to do polling in Clacton. It’s happy news for Nigel…
Polling conducted from 11-13 June suggests that Farage is set to win the seat, and with the biggest swing in modern political history at that. Survation’s split is 42% Reform, 27% Tory, and 24% Labour. The pollster says “we find that swings as large as the one currently projected in Clacton are extremely rare. The projected swing in Clacton from the Conservative Party to the Reform UK party is 43.5 per cent.” Tory Giles Watling won 72% of the vote in 2019…
Farage filled a large auditorium last night to announce defections of Tory councillors to Reform, to fanfare and fireworks. He’s got momentum…
Damning new polling of Britain’s publicans by Survation for the UK Spirits Alliance has poured cold water on boozers’ hopes ahead of Hunt’s budget. Two-thirds of pubs are reporting a decline in footfall and profits since September. In the Autumn Statement Hunt froze alcohol duty until August this year, though a previous 10.1% hike in line with inflation had already passed on massive costs to consumers. Leaving pub-goers feeling far from bubbly…
A whopping 96% of pubs say any increase in alcohol duty will result in a price increase while over half say all investment would come to an end and staff would have to be cut. Britain’s boozers are at massive risk with over 7,000 expected to go out of business this year. 62% of pubs say last summer’s “Brexit Pubs Guarantee”, designed to undermine supermarket booze, hasn’t worked well. Only real tax cuts will work to tickle the providers of our tipple…
Another week, another dire poll for the Tories. The Country Land and Business Association has a Survation poll which shows more than half of the 100 most rural seats in England will swing to Labour at the next election. 51 of these traditionally Tory heartlands. That’s a big loss considering they currently hold 96 of them. From breaking through the Red Wall to losing the Blue Wall in 5 years is quite an achievement…
Among those polled to lose their seat include:
- Jeremy Hunt
- Jacob Rees-Mogg
- Lucy Frazer
- Mark Harper
- Mel Stride
- Richard Holden
- Anne-Marie Trevelyan
- Andrea Leadsom
- Mark Spencer
- Graham Stuart
- Andrew Griffith
- Liam Fox
- Thérèse Coffey
- Julian Smith
- Karen Bradley
- Jeremy Wright
- Brendan Clarke-Smith
- Bernard Jenkin
- Bill Cash
With by-elections this week expected to bring more losses for the Tories, and GDP stats potentially showing the UK is in a recession, this is just the start of another hard week for Rishi…
Yesterday the Prime Minister was very excited about achieving the first one of his top five priorities – halving inflation before the years end, with Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) now down to 4.6% Rishi claimed the credit for what was largely down to global energy prices falling. Most people know governments can drive up inflation by printing money and proliferating spending, which to be fair to Sunak and Hunt they are holding the line on. Not everyone realises that consumer taxes also contribute to the CPI figure. In fact according to the Office for National Statistics* alcohol taxes contributed over a third of a percentage point to inflation.
If the government want to convince the public they are taking effective action on the cost of living they should not be adding to inflation in the Autumn Statement next week with consumer taxes. According to Survation 55% of the public think taxes on alcohol should remain at current levels or be reduced, so any action to reverse or at least hold the line on alcohol duty would be seen by voters as action on the cost of living and would be counter-inflationary. It would also reduce the CPI figure and help reach that 2% goal…
*The ONS paper “…the 0.37 percentage point contribution to the annual rate in August 2023 from alcohol and tobacco was the largest from that division since the start of the National Statistics series in 2006.”
