Douglas Carswell all but concedes Stoke:

“I think the most likely outcome is that Labour will win… Stoke is not even in our top 50 target seats.”

Kippers on the ground do not sound particularly confident. Result by 3am…

Guido has noticed a recurring theme among Labour’s two by-election candidates: they both seem to be avoiding the press. By Guido’s count Gillian Troughton, Labour’s candidate in Copeland, has so far:

• Declined an invitation to appear on the BBC alongside her rivals
• Refused an interview with Channel 4 News
• Sent a ‘representative’ to a local hustings
• Dodged another public debate altogether

Gareth Snell, the candidate in Stoke-on-Trent Central has so far:

• Blanked a PA reporter, refusing to answer questions while out and about with Jeremy Corbyn (Guido revealed Snell had previously called Corbyn an “IRA supporting friend of Hamas” – watch them run here)
• On the same occasion refused to give an interview to ITV
• Even refused to give an interview to the New Statesman

It’s certainly getting up the nose of Michael Crick, who has been wistfully tweeting about the degree of access he had during the 1997 Wirral South by-election. Almost as if Labour are trying to hide the woeful lack of talent among their by-election candidates…

Paul Nuttall has taken on Labour’s main attack line in Stoke by vowing to oppose NHS privatisation and launching a stinging attack on Labour’s record. No cat out of the bag but a crowd-pleasing policy pitch nonetheless: anti-privatisation, anti-PFI, abolishing hospital car parking charges, migrants must pay in for 5 years before accessing non-urgent treatment and foreign aid cash diverted to the health budget. Some tasty lines from Suzanne Evans too: “If Nye Bevan were here today, he would be disgusted by what the Labour Party has done to the NHS” and “Labour is like an abusive parent spending their own children’s money”. The NHS is the key non-Brexit by-election issue in Stoke: the town is a 30 minute drive from Stafford hospital which is still recovering from a major care standards scandal. There is one problem with Labour’s claim that Nuttall would privatise the NHS: he wouldn’t…