Poll Reported by Sunday Times Showing Rishi Winning in Red Wall Seats Actually Had Boris Well Ahead

Yesterday Guido reported on the mystery of the fake polls creating fake news in the Sunday Times. The paper claimed two polls from Survation and Focaldata showed Rishi was the top choice nationally, especially with Red Wall voters. Survation and Focaldata later denied these polls ever existed. The CEO of Focaldata now says he actually forgot* about a poll commissioned by Hanover Communications, and has since provided the data tables which generated the above chart. It shows that, based on the stated “first preference for Prime Minister”, voters nationally prefer Boris and he currently ties with Starmer in Red Wall seats. 

Given the Sunday Times article reported the poll as showing Rishi Sunak supposedly had the best chance of reaching voters in the Red Wall seats that flipped to the Tories in 2019, it is striking that the actual data shows Rishi well behind in the Red Wall seats and nationally as the first choice for voters. Whomever span the poll to the Sunday Times emphasised that Rishi was a strong second choice versus Starmer and Boris. Tory MPs know there is no prize under Britain’s electoral system for second choices…

*Justin Ibbett, CEO of Focaldata, who tweeted on Sunday that he had not conducted a poll regarding a “hypothetical leader” has now explained that his firm is primarily a software platform. Customers like Hanover Communications can automate their polling without human intervention from them. Hence his ignorance of a poll his firm conducted.

mdi-timer 8 February 2022 @ 15:59 8 Feb 2022 @ 15:59 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Rishi for England

Politicians love to associate themselves with something as populist as football and Rishi is no different. However the authenticity of his support – or at the very least the longevity of his support – is called into question by the three price tags which can be seen still attached to his England football shirt in this publicity shot. A rare slip in his usually slick operation. It’s a bit “Gordon Brown wakes up to the Arctic Monkeys…”

mdi-timer 29 June 2021 @ 14:40 29 Jun 2021 @ 14:40 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Jack Doyle is Downing Street’s New Head of Spin

Jack Doyle has been promoted from deputy to the new Downing Street Director of Communications, replacing his boss and former Daily Mail colleague, James Slack, who has gone to be deputy editor of The Sun. Guido does wonder what this means for the much delayed televised briefings, Doyle’s a newspaperman and not one for revolutions…

mdi-timer 17 April 2021 @ 09:29 17 Apr 2021 @ 09:29 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Allegra’s Scheduled Televised Briefings Off Air

Guido understands that Downing Street’s televised press briefings, to be fronted by Allegra Stratton and due to launch on January 11th, will not be going ahead next week. Not much of a surprise in the current circumstances. Expect to continue to see ministers doing briefings during lockdown…

mdi-timer 6 January 2021 @ 14:01 6 Jan 2021 @ 14:01 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
PR Trade Body Virtually Bust

CIPR, the trade body for the spin industry, is in big trouble. The confidential minutes of the latest council meetings reveal that they expect income to fall by £1,593,000.  Through pay cuts, redundancies and furloughs they have reduced direct expenditure by £861,000 of which staff costs were £261,000. Overall they expect to make a loss of £326,000 rather than a surplus of £145,000. This loss will reduce the CIPR’s reserves to zero by the end of the year.

The back-slapping at CIPR’s awards ceremonies has come to a halt as a result of Covid, so there are fewer opportunities to sell tickets to see everybody giving each other awards. They plan to seek a £750,000 government-backed Business Interruption Loan to be repaid over an extended term. They have already abandoned their offices to become a virtual organisation…

mdi-timer 10 August 2020 @ 16:00 10 Aug 2020 @ 16:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Spinning Politicians: Trade Body Condemns Davidson Hire, Condones Lord Myners

The hiring of Ruth Davidson by Tulchan Communications has been condemned by Francis Ingham, Director General, of the trade body PRCA

“It is simply wrong for lobbying agencies to employ legislators. The possible conflict of interest in doing so is clear, and damages the reputation of both our industry, and of the political process. PRCA members are prohibited from employing parliamentarians – and with good reason. Unlike the vast majority of its competitors, Tulchan is not a PRCA member. But in the public interest, we would nonetheless urge them to reconsider this appointment.”

Tulchan is headed by former Tory party Chairman Lord Feldman, who is also a member of the House of Lords. Another active member of the House of Lords is Lord Myners. Myners is also chairman of Edelman UK, one of the world’s largest PR firms, which is also a leading member of the PRCA.

When Guido asked the PRCA how they reconciled their biggest member being chaired by a parliamentarian, the spinner for the spinners at first said it was different because Myners was unelected, Guido pointed out Myners was still a parliamentarian, the spinner than argued that it was a ceremonial role, Guido than explained that Lord Myners actually makes and votes on laws and his role is not ceremonial. The spinner than said he would ask Francis Ingham to get back to Guido…
UPDATE: Francis Ingham gets back to spin “There is an enormous gulf between a non-executive director who has been made a Peer as an honour, and an MP or MSP whose full time job is to be an elected politician.” Lord Myners votes and makes laws. Not sure how that is alright because he only does it only part-time – it also means PRCA members are employing parliamentarians – which is supposedly against the rules.

Edelman get in touch:

“Paul Myners does not advise clients nor does he do public affairs work for Edelman. He is a cross-bench peer who chairs Edelman’s Advisory Board, which gives strategic advice and provides external challenge to the UK management team. This is entirely within the PRCA rules.”

All within the rules. That has a familiar ring to it.

mdi-timer 24 October 2019 @ 16:30 24 Oct 2019 @ 16:30 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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