A month after Labour’s plans to ban smoking outside pubs and in parks were exposed, research on the public’s view is pouring in. It’s far from a closed case…

Lobby groups like ASH claim that there is overwhelming support for draconian measures on tobacco which is jumped on by Labour, which insists there has been “a consensus for a long time now that we want to see a smoke-free country.” The data doesn’t bear that out…

YouGov’s snap research had support for a ban outside pub gardens at 51%. A new poll from Yonder Consulting now has less than half of the public support the measure. If you remove the don’t knows, 53% say smoking outside should be allowed, compared to 47% pro-ban. Brits usually support a ban on anything that moves – the fact they aren’t behind Starmer on this one is significant…

Simon Clark, director of smokers’ rights group Forest, who commissioned the poll, tells Guido: “What is clear is that the government has no mandate to ban smoking outside pubs. It wasn’t in the Labour Party manifesto and the public only found out about it after the plan was leaked to a national newspaper.” It’s goodnight sweet prince to the hospitality industry, too…

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has issued its typical doom-laden “Green Budget,” sounding the alarm that Reeves will need to launch a £25 billion tax raid if she hopes to stave off austerity. Cue the mass exodus of wealth creators, who are already eyeing the exit signs from the UK…

A key factor fuelling the ‘black hole’ Labour loves to shout about is the smoking ban. Freedom-loving think tanks have consistently lambasted the Tobacco and Vapes Bill since its inception for stripping Britons of their right to choose. And the IFS’s latest report highlights how this ban is turning into a significant drain on the Exchequer…

The IFS is clamouring for tax hikes to bridge the gap left by “the predictable disappearance of tax bases for… tobacco duties,” as revenue from tobacco taxes still stood at a staggering “£9 billion in the last financial year.” If the generational smoking ban gets the green light, tobacco revenue is set to “decrease faster than it otherwise would,” with the OBR predicting that “revenues for tobacco duties decline to approximately zero by 2060.”  You don’t say…

Meanwhile, the report further reveals that “vaping duty…will be insufficient to replace lost revenue from tobacco duty.” It also notes that ‘sin taxes’ can actually lead to a decline in revenue if they work as intended. So, this nanny-state, hell-bent on taxing wealth creators and restricting freedoms, is paradoxically driving down revenue for the Treasury. Maybe Reeves should consider that the £9 billion a year from tobacco duties could help fill part of the alleged £22 billion gap instead of resorting to more tax raids…

A Survation survey of 102 Labour MPs reveals that the Tobacco and Vapes Bill is considered the lowest priority, with 48% ranking it at the bottom—three times more than those who placed the Skills Bill second to last. Shock to no one that cracking down on peoples’ freedoms is not as important as energy, crime and employment…

Meanwhile, Starmer is facing yet another rebellion from his own MPs, as Mary Glindon has tabled an early day motion in Parliament voicing opposition to the plans to ban outdoor smoking — a nanny-state move that could see three pubs shutting down each week if it came into force. Starmer should listen to his MPs. His puritanical urge to control Britons’ lives is not what his party, or the public, wants…

The Sun’s splash on Labour plans to extend Sunak’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill even further has been all but confirmed by the government:

“We do not comment on leaks. Smoking claims 80,000 lives a year, puts huge pressure on our NHS, and costs taxpayers billions. We are determined to protect children and non-smokers from the harms of second-hand smoking. We’re considering a range of measures to finally make Britain smoke-free.”

Smoking is to be banned in pub gardens, outside nightclubs, on restaurant terraces, in small parks, and on university pavements. From 1980 to 2007 the annual pub closure rate was 0.65% – since the previous smoking ban it has shot up to 2.8%. Tory leadership hopefuls Jenrick and Patel have come out to warn that this new crackdown will savage the industry. No wonder Starmer’s banned from Jeremy Clarkson’s boozer…

DBT warned against the ban on those grounds only to be overridden by Downing Street. Simon Clark, director of smokers’ rights group Forest, rails against the move:

“If it’s true that the government intends to extend the smoking ban to a raft of outdoor areas, Britain will no longer be a nanny state.  We will have crossed a line and become a bully state in which people are punished for the terrible crime of lighting a cigarette outside a pub or in a park.”

While Reeves claims “difficult decisions” are coming up on tax and spend, the Labour government’s insistence on pushing through Sunak’s tobacco ban is already destroying billions of Treasury revenue. Data shows a quarter of the entire police budget is being lost every year thanks to the growing black market. Prohibition strikes again…

New research by market information firm Circana, combined with ONS data, shows that spending on illegal tobacco in 2023/24 was a whopping £5.7 billion. That’s a figure which has ballooned from £4.2 billion the year and only £3.5 billion in 2020…

HMRC’s analysis of the black market is optimistic. It suggests that in 2022/23 7% of ready-made and 33% of rolled cigarettes were illicit, putting the revenue loss at £2.2 billion. Seeing as last year’s black market was worth £5.7 billion and tobacco is taxed at about 75%, £4 billion in tax revenue has in fact been foregone. At this rate the swollen black market is draining Treasury coffers at a significantly faster rate than predicted – which means the money will have to come from elsewhere…

Sunak said today: “The smoking ban, of course, disappointed to not be able to get that through at the end of this session given the time available, but what I’d say is that’s evidence of the bold action I’m prepared to take, that’s the type of Prime Minister I am, that’s the type of leadership that I bring.” Eh?

Wes Streeting is keen to light up Sunak over it. He says “If Rishi Sunak’s idea of bold leadership is to crumble before his party and surrender his landmark smoking bill, it’s no wonder the country is in such a mess.” This bill’s turning out to be a bit of a drag…

“Labour remains committed to the policy. We will make sure that young people today are even less likely to smoke than they are to vote Tory.”

Downing Street now promises to re-introduce their flagship bill if they’re elected. Guido’s not sure he can hear Tory activists rushing out to the start doorstepping in response…