New polling, released this morning by Techne, puts Labour on 45% to the Conservatives on 30%. This represents a Labour lead over the Conservatives of 15%. It’s the joint lowest margin recorded by the pollster since Sunak became Prime Minister.
Techne aren’t the only pollster reflecting this trend. Last week, Opinium recorded a Labour lead of just 11%, whilst on Monday, Redfield & Wilton reported a 14% margin – both of which are also the smallest since Sunak took over. Going by the polling average in February, a 14% Labour lead represents a drop of 8% in just two months.
As the “noisy” scatter graph from above UK Polling Report shows a narrowing lead for Labour trend has developed this month. Before Tory MPs get too excited, this is what it probably means in terms of seats:
All of this explains why Savanta polling director, Chris Hopkins, told the i that the days of 20 point Labour polling leads are “gone” and “If it gets much smaller I think possibly we start to get into hung parliament territory”. The SNP’s electoral collapse further complicates electoral calculations. Survation recently put the SNP’s lead over Labour at 5% – the smallest since the 2019 election. There’s still a long time to go until Autumn 2024…
A new rating of pollsters’ accuracy compiled by Election Maps UK has Ipsos MORI coming out as Britain’s top polling company by a mile, when taking into account the 2017 and 2019 general elections, and the 2019 EU elections. Opinium and YouGov tied in second; Survation came third, ICM, BMG and Savanta Comres came bottom with average errors of up to 3%. Pollsters are more bitchy than hairdressers so this will cause Guido’s phone to ring hot with explanations of “flawed methodology”…
Hat-tip: @ElectionMapsUK
Sentiment towards Boris has bounced back from the negative since yesterday’s stark figures from Savanta, which showed the PM’s net approval ratings falling from +19 points to -1 in just four days; today, the same pollster has Boris back up to +7. Weekend’s plunge looking more like a temporary blip..
The first batch of polls are out and they do not make good reading for Downing Street. Boris now has a negative rating of -1% according to Savanta, who have him well behind Starmer (+12%). Boris has taken a significant hit, falling from +19% just four days ago to -1% today. Is this a Cummings caused temporary blip or a permanent state of affairs remains to be seen.
ComRes has overall support falling by 16 points this weekend to -2% due to the Cummings affair. At the start of the month they enjoyed 35% backing…
Cummings told reporters he “doesn’t care“ how his lockdown travel looks; Boris does on the other hand have to care about popularity. Those in Downing Street with long memories will recall that on a Bank holiday weekend in 2009, the then PM’s special adviser Damian McBride’s misbehaviour saw Labour drop 9% points that weekend. The Tories broke through the 40% ceiling in the polls and went on to win the next election…
New data from YouGov today shows a small dip in approval and sharp rise in disapproval of the Government from the voting public. Whilst still in positive territory, and certainly more popular than it was at the start of the year, it is clear the Government has taken a knock. Research company Savanta has found the personal ratings of senior cabinet ministers have fallen too, Boris collapsing by 17 points to just +8, Hancock falling by seven points to +10, and Rishi Sunak dipping by three points to +26. Meanwhile Starmer has inched up by two points to +9…
It’s clear the tactics of opposition parties to present a lockdown loosening as ‘confusing’ have had some success. People parrot the ‘this is confusing’ line to pollsters, as it means they don’t have to pay much attention. Starmer knows this, and his coordinated ‘operation befuddle’ has cut through. The Tories can’t rely on inept opposition any more…
