New polling from Savanta Comres reveals 44% of Brits are in favour of ending the temporary ban on shale gas extraction across the UK, with 36% opposed and 20% undecided. 41% of UK adults also think the government’s Net Zero targets have weakened Britain’s energy security and should be “reconsidered” following the invasion of Ukraine. Is it any wonder? Energy bills are through the roof, and we’re still relying on Russia for most of our coal…

The new figures also fly in the face of the received wisdom often spouted in Westminster. In February, just before the war in Ukraine, Zac Goldsmith claimed it was “hard to overstate just how unpopular fracking is with the British public”:

It’s hard to overstate just how unpopular fracking is with the British public. The last BEIS attitude tracker showed only 18% support (76% supported onshore wind). People do not want large-scale industrialisation of the British countryside. /3

— Zac Goldsmith (@ZacGoldsmith) February 12, 2022

Now a majority are in favour, BEIS has commissioned a review into whether the ban can be lifted, and Kwasi Kwarteng even admitted the government needed to “explore all possible domestic energy sources” to solve the crisis. Drill baby, drill…

New research from the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) has revealed nearly half of the Commons is functionally innumerate. When a sample of MPs were asked “If you toss a coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?”, an astonishing 48% managed to get it wrong. The correct probability being 25%, although co-conspirators will already know that.

This is a level of mathematics taught to 12 year-olds. Breaking down the data is even more revealing:

• Only 38% of 2019ers gave the right answer.
• 53% of Labour MPs got it right, versus 50% of Tories.
• Just two Welsh MPs answered correctly.
• 60% of female MPs answered correctly versus just 48% of males – a statistically significant difference.

In defence of the 2019ers, most of them were educated under Blair. The Tories having a weaker understanding of numbers, meanwhile, probably explains why our taxes are going up in April. Congratulations to the two Welsh MPs who are at least as talented as 12-year olds.

It’s not all bad news though: the Royal Statistical Society points out these results show MPs are actually better than they were 11 years ago, when only 40% of respondents gave the correct answer. Although maybe that’s just grade inflation…

On Brexit’s fifth birthday, a new poll from Savanta Comres shows that one in seven 2016 Remainers would vote not to rejoin the EU in a hypothetical scenario – compared to just one in ten Leavers who would.

Overall, 51% of those polled would vote against rejoining the bloc in a second vote, with 49% in favour. Most people, including Remainers, just want to move on. The cookie’s crumbled…

A new poll from Savanta Comres puts Keir Starmer’s net favourability at just 24%, down 6 points from April and now 4 points behind “Don’t Know” on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. Boris is miles ahead at 48%…

There aren’t many reasons to be cheerful in Starmer’s camp. Last week’s YouGov data had Labour down at 30% for only the second time in a year, and Sir Keir polling lower than Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Burnham. Maybe ‘Don’t Know’ will make a run at the Labour leadership as well…

With the Holyrood elections set for next week, a new poll from Savanta Comres suggests the SNP has lost its momentum; it’s now projected to lose two seats from 2016 and fall four seats short of an overall majority. Anything less than a majority is a hammer blow to Sturgeon’s hopes of calling a second independence referendum…

Yet even if Sturgeon were to get her wish, support for independence continues to wane. The same survey shows that just 42% of those polled back independence, with 49% opposed and 8% undecided. Removing the undecided voters brings the result to a 54-46 split for ‘no’ – almost identical to the 2014 outcome…