Every month, we’ll publish the power rankings of all the leading lights in the party based on our readers’ responses. Click here to fill in the survey, and the results will be published at the end of the month. Dan Thomas and Malcolm Offord have been added to the roster. Here’s how last month played out…
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Reform’s internal polling suggests 163 Labour MPs (164 if poor Karl Turner is let back in) would lose their seats at the next election, including seven Cabinet ministers. Guido has the data…
Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, Jonathan Reynolds, Pat McFadden, and even Angela Rayner are all under threat from Reform. David Lammy would lose to Polanksi’s Greens. The Tories would take Rachel Reeves’ seat. A bloodbath…
The polling is based on the votes cast at last week’s local elections. See the full list below. This list obviously only applies to areas that had elections last Thursday. The other half would be presumably just as bad. Labour MPs who aren’t on this list shouldn’t get too comfortable…
| # | MP & Seat | To | PP |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Cabinet on the chopping block
|
|||
| 23 | CABINETLisa Nandy · Wigan | REF | -25.2 |
| 46 | CABINETJonathan Reynolds · Stalybridge and Hyde | REF | -21.2 |
| 53 | CABINETYvette Cooper · Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | REF | -19.8 |
| 54 | CABINETBridget Phillipson · Houghton and Sunderland South | REF | -19.6 |
| 62 | CABINETPat McFadden · Wolverhampton South East | REF | -18.3 |
| 127 | CABINETDavid Lammy · Tottenham | GRN | -7.7 |
| 152 | CABINETRachel Reeves · Leeds West and Pudsey | CON | -4.2 |
|
Biggest swings against Labour
|
|||
| 1 | Josh Newbury · Cannock Chase | REF | -43.1 |
| 2 | Sarah Edwards · Tamworth | REF | -41.8 |
| 3 | Chris Vince · Harlow | CON | -40.6 |
| 4 | Sonia Kumar · Dudley | REF | -37.6 |
| 5 | Matt Turmaine · Watford | LD | -35.7 |
| 6 | Leigh Ingham · Stafford | CON | -33.9 |
| 7 | Oliver Ryan · Burnley | REF | -33.3 |
| 8 | Fred Thomas · Plymouth Moor View | REF | -32.5 |
| 9 | David Williams · Stoke-on-Trent North | REF | -32.4 |
| 10 | Rachel Taylor · North Warwickshire and Bedworth | REF | -31.8 |
| 11 | Melanie Onn · Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | REF | -31.6 |
| 12 | MINStephen Morgan · Portsmouth South | LD | -29.8 |
| 13 | Richard Quigley · Isle of Wight West | REF | -29.7 |
| 14 | Andy MacNae · Rossendale and Darwen | REF | -28.5 |
| 15 | Jonathan Brash · Hartlepool | REF | -28.3 |
| 16 | Jonathan Hinder · Pendle and Clitheroe | REF | -28.1 |
| 17 | Mark Sewards · Leeds South West and Morley | REF | -27.5 |
| 18 | Jodie Gosling · Nuneaton | REF | -27.3 |
| 19 | Josh Simons · Makerfield | REF | -27.1 |
| 20 | Cat Eccles · Stourbridge | REF | -26.5 |
| 21 | Jess Phillips · Birmingham Yardley | LD | -26.1 |
| 22 | Amanda Martin · Portsmouth North | REF | -25.6 |
| 24 | Danny Beales · Uxbridge and South Ruislip | CON | -25.2 |
| 25 | Helena Dollimore · Hastings and Rye | GRN | -25.0 |
| 26 | Sam Carling · North West Cambridgeshire | REF | -24.8 |
| 27 | Jen Craft · Thurrock | REF | -24.8 |
| 28 | Connor Rand · Altrincham and Sale West | CON | -24.5 |
| 29 | Chris Bloore · Redditch | REF | -24.5 |
| 30 | Sarah Smith · Hyndburn | REF | -24.4 |
| 31 | Maya Ellis · Ribble Valley | LD | -24.3 |
| 32 | Laurence Turner · Birmingham Northfield | REF | -24.1 |
| 33 | Emma Lewell-Buck · South Shields | REF | -24.1 |
| 34 | Clive Lewis · Norwich South | GRN | -23.8 |
| 35 | Kim Leadbeater · Spen Valley | REF | -23.8 |
| 36 | Joe Powell · Kensington and Bayswater | CON | -23.8 |
| 37 | Jo Platt · Leigh and Atherton | REF | -23.4 |
| 38 | Clive Betts · Sheffield South East | REF | -23.3 |
| 39 | Bayo Alaba · Southend East and Rochford | REF | -23.3 |
| 40 | Abtisam Mohamed · Sheffield Central | GRN | -22.6 |
| 41 | MINEmma Hardy · Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | REF | -22.2 |
| 42 | Sureena Brackenridge · Wolverhampton North East | REF | -22.2 |
| 43 | MINDiana Johnson · Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham | LD | -22.2 |
| 44 | Kirith Entwistle · Bolton North East | REF | -21.6 |
| 45 | Alex Ballinger · Halesowen | REF | -21.5 |
| 47 | Debbie Abrahams · Oldham East and Saddleworth | REF | -20.8 |
| 48 | Afzal Khan · Manchester Rusholme | GRN | -20.6 |
| 49 | Rachel Blake · Cities of London and Westminster | CON | -20.4 |
| 50 | Elsie Blundell · Heywood and Middleton North | REF | -20.4 |
| 51 | Lewis Atkinson · Sunderland Central | REF | -20.2 |
| 52 | Alice Macdonald · Norwich North | GRN | -20.2 |
| 55 | Jon Trickett · Normanton and Hemsworth | REF | -19.2 |
| 56 | Olivia Blake · Sheffield Hallam | LD | -19.2 |
| 57 | Adam Jogee · Newcastle-under-Lyme | REF | -19.1 |
| 58 | Marie Tidball · Penistone and Stocksbridge | REF | -19.1 |
| 59 | David Burton-Sampson · Southend West and Leigh | REF | -18.8 |
| 60 | Alex Sobel · Leeds Central and Headingley | GRN | -18.7 |
| 61 | Kate Osborne · Jarrow and Gateshead East | REF | -18.4 |
| 63 | Jim McMahon · Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | REF | -18.1 |
| 64 | John Slinger · Rugby | REF | -18.0 |
| 65 | Ben Coleman · Chelsea and Fulham | CON | -17.6 |
| 66 | Jade Botterill · Ossett and Denby Dale | REF | -17.4 |
| 67 | Ashley Dalton · West Lancashire | REF | -17.2 |
| 68 | Simon Lightwood · Wakefield and Rothwell | REF | -17.1 |
| 69 | Kevin Bonavia · Stevenage | REF | -16.7 |
| 70 | Antonia Bance · Tipton and Wednesbury | REF | -16.7 |
| 71 | Angela Rayner · Ashton-under-Lyne | REF | -16.6 |
| 72 | Michael Wheeler · Worsley and Eccles | REF | -16.4 |
| 73 | Al Carns · Birmingham Selly Oak | GRN | -16.2 |
| 74 | Louise Haigh · Sheffield Heeley | GRN | -16.1 |
| 75 | Sean Woodcock · Banbury | REF | -16.1 |
| 76 | Valerie Vaz · Walsall and Bloxwich | REF | -15.6 |
| 77 | Paul Davies · Colne Valley | REF | -15.6 |
| 78 | Stephanie Peacock · Barnsley South | REF | -15.4 |
| 79 | Daniel Francis · Bexleyheath and Crayford | REF | -15.3 |
| 80 | Yuan Yang · Earley and Woodley | CON | -15.3 |
| 81 | Sharon Hodgson · Washington and Gateshead South | REF | -14.5 |
| 82 | Yasmin Qureshi · Bolton South and Walkden | REF | -14.5 |
| 83 | Andrew Lewin · Welwyn Hatfield | REF | -14.3 |
| 84 | David Pinto-Duschinsky · Hendon | CON | -14.2 |
| 85 | Pam Cox · Colchester | REF | -14.1 |
| 86 | Mark Ferguson · Gateshead Central and Whickham | REF | -14.1 |
| 87 | Kate Dearden · Halifax | REF | -14.0 |
| 88 | Darren Paffey · Southampton Itchen | REF | -13.8 |
| 89 | Steve Race · Exeter | GRN | -13.5 |
| 90 | Feryal Clark · Enfield North | CON | -13.5 |
| 91 | Luke Murphy · Basingstoke | REF | -13.3 |
| 92 | Harpreet Uppal · Huddersfield | REF | -13.3 |
| 93 | Alex Baker · Aldershot | REF | -13.3 |
| 94 | Josh Fenton-Glynn · Calder Valley | REF | -13.3 |
| 95 | Peter Lamb · Crawley | REF | -13.2 |
| 96 | Phil Brickell · Bolton West | REF | -13.1 |
| 97 | Vicky Foxcroft · Lewisham North | GRN | -13.0 |
| 98 | David Baines · St Helens North | REF | -12.9 |
| 99 | Marie Rimmer · St Helens South and Whiston | REF | -12.5 |
| 100 | Gill Furniss · Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | REF | -12.3 |
| 101 | Mary Glindon · Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | REF | -12.3 |
| 102 | Paul Foster · South Ribble | REF | -12.1 |
| 103 | Paulette Hamilton · Birmingham Erdington | REF | -12.0 |
| 104 | Emma Foody · Cramlington and Killingworth | REF | -11.8 |
| 105 | Judith Cummins · Bradford South | REF | -11.8 |
| 106 | Andrew Pakes · Peterborough | CON | -11.8 |
| 107 | Patrick Hurley · Southport | REF | -11.6 |
| 108 | Uma Kumaran · Stratford and Bow | GRN | -11.3 |
| 109 | Hamish Falconer · Lincoln | REF | -11.2 |
| 110 | Joe Morris · Hexham | REF | -11.0 |
| 111 | Sarah Sackman · Finchley and Golders Green | CON | -10.6 |
| 112 | Taiwo Owatemi · Coventry North West | REF | -10.4 |
| 113 | Chi Onwurah · Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | REF | -10.1 |
| 114 | Liam Byrne · Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | REF | -9.9 |
| 115 | Rebecca Long-Bailey · Salford | REF | -9.9 |
| 116 | Margaret Mullane · Dagenham and Rainham | REF | -9.6 |
| 117 | Anna Dixon · Shipley | GRN | -9.3 |
| 118 | Beccy Cooper · Worthing West | REF | -9.2 |
| 119 | MINEllie Reeves · Lewisham West and East Dulwich | GRN | -9.2 |
| 120 | Matt Rodda · Reading Central | GRN | -9.1 |
| 121 | Derek Twigg · Widnes and Halewood | REF | -9.0 |
| 122 | Dan Jarvis · Barnsley North | REF | -9.0 |
| 123 | Dan Tomlinson · Chipping Barnet | CON | -8.9 |
| 124 | Catherine McKinnell · Newcastle upon Tyne North | LD | -8.4 |
| 125 | Tahir Ali · Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | GRN | -8.1 |
| 126 | Natasha Irons · Croydon East | CON | -7.8 |
| 128 | Christian Wakeford · Bury South | REF | -7.7 |
| 129 | Meg Hillier · Hackney South and Shoreditch | GRN | -7.6 |
| 130 | Richard Burgon · Leeds East | REF | -7.5 |
| 131 | Paul Waugh · Rochdale | REF | -7.5 |
| 132 | Daniel Zeichner · Cambridge | GRN | -7.3 |
| 133 | Kate Osamor · Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | CON | -7.1 |
| 134 | Callum Anderson · Buckingham and Bletchley | REF | -6.8 |
| 135 | Tom Rutland · East Worthing and Shoreham | REF | -6.8 |
| 136 | Neil Coyle · Bermondsey and Old Southwark | LD | -6.5 |
| 137 | Rupa Huq · Ealing Central and Acton | LD | -6.4 |
| 138 | Fleur Anderson · Putney | CON | -6.2 |
| 139 | Calvin Bailey · Leyton and Wanstead | GRN | -6.2 |
| 140 | James Frith · Bury North | REF | -6.0 |
| 141 | Jack Abbott · Ipswich | REF | -5.8 |
| 142 | Apsana Begum · Poplar and Limehouse | REF | -5.0 |
| 143 | Emily Darlington · Milton Keynes Central | REF | -5.0 |
| 144 | Barry Gardiner · Brent West | CON | -4.8 |
| 145 | Liz Twist · Blaydon and Consett | REF | -4.8 |
| 146 | Marsha De Cordova · Battersea | CON | -4.4 |
| 147 | Mark Hendrick · Preston | REF | -4.3 |
| 148 | Anneliese Midgley · Knowsley | REF | -4.3 |
| 149 | Luke Pollard · Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | REF | -4.3 |
| 150 | Chris Curtis · Milton Keynes North | REF | -4.3 |
| 151 | Navendu Mishra · Stockport | REF | -4.3 |
| 153 | Lucy Powell · Manchester Central | GRN | -4.2 |
| 154 | Satvir Kaur · Southampton Test | REF | -4.0 |
| 155 | Jeff Smith · Manchester Withington | GRN | -3.6 |
| 156 | Hilary Benn · Leeds South | GRN | -3.5 |
| 157 | Will Stone · Swindon North | CON | -3.5 |
| 158 | Heidi Alexander · Swindon South | CON | -3.4 |
| 159 | Warinder Juss · Wolverhampton West | REF | -3.3 |
| 160 | Tulip Siddiq · Hampstead and Highgate | LD | -3.0 |
| 161 | Mary Creagh · Coventry East | REF | -2.8 |
| 162 | Bambos Charalambous · Southgate and Wood Green | CON | -2.4 |
| 163 | Clive Efford · Eltham and Chislehurst | REF | -2.1 |
Parliamentary Standards Commissioner Daniel Greenberg has opened an investigation into Nigel Farage over an undeclared £5 million donation from Christopher Harborne. Under Rule 5: members must “fulfil conscientiously the requirements of the House in respect of the registration of interests in the Register of Members’ Financial Interest”…
A Reform spokesman said:
“Mr Farage’s office is in communications with the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.
“He has always been clear that this was a personal, unconditional gift and no rules were broken.
“We look forward to this being put to bed once and for all.”
Every month, we’ll publish the power rankings of all the leading lights in the party based on our readers’ responses. Click here to fill in the survey, and the results will be published at the end of the month. Dan Thomas and Malcolm Offord have been added to the roster. Here’s how last month played out…
We’re offering £10 off your Guido membership once you complete it. If you’re not a Guido member yet, that’s a whole month as a Co-Conspirator for free. You’ll get instant access to all our exclusive content, including Labour Wars and The Right Angle…
Restore Britain have won all ten seats in Great Yarmouth in Norfolk County Council elections. Leader Rupert Lowe’s constituency and the only place in which candidates have stood…
A Restore Britain Spokesperson said:
“The people of Great Yarmouth have spoken loud and clear. They want real change, not more of the same failed politics from Westminster. This clean sweep of all 10 seats is a massive vote of confidence in our local team and in the Restore Britain movement. We ran on commonsense policies: securing our borders, cutting waste, protecting British jobs for local workers, and always putting Great Yarmouth first. Today, the voters of Great Yarmouth delivered a landslide. This is just the beginning.”
Candidates stood for “Great Yarmouth First” which is the ‘local arm’ of Restore. Watched with beady eyes from Reform HQ…
In the wake of the local election results Andrew Marr has predicted Farage will become the next PM. About turn…
He said on LBC just now:
“As we sit here now, Nigel Farage is going to be the next Prime Minister. I think we are on course for a Reform victory at the next election. They might have Tories propping them up or not. But the way things are, very interesting listening to Farage just now… he kept talking about geography. And that is the crucial part of what’s happening today, which is that they are indeed becoming a national party.
They are winning all over the place. Now, the early wins have been in Labour’s traditional northern heartlands. And that’s part of, you know, the Brexit story, part of Boris Johnson’s levelling up.
It’s been going on for an awful long time but they’re winning there and they’re winning in the Tory heartlands across the southeast of England as well you put that together you’re asking him can he win an overall majority without London in effect and the answer is he probably can and the big questions for the other parties are do they maintain their position do they try to maintain their position as big national movements.”
This is the same Andrew Marr who said in July 2024:
“I think just having a stable government for five, maybe ten years, which has ordinary, down to earth, serious people, talking like the rest of us, in charge of the government, is going to mean a wall of money coming into this country from around the world. If you look at the chaos in France and Italy, and the chaos in the United States, for the first time in a long time Britain is like a little haven of peace and stability.”
Tempora mutantur…
Paula Barker, Liverpool Wavertree MP backing Andy Burnham, told Times Radio there wouldn’t be trouble from the markets under Burnham:
“The markets will have to fall in line.”