YouGov has done some polling on Tory Party members’ views. It should make interesting reading for leadership contenders…
52% of members say that a merger with Nigel’s “real opposition” would improve Tory chances of winning at the next election. A lower 42% say they want to see it actually go ahead. Reflecting the rough split between the poacher and merger camps…
Support for moving to the centre sits at a low 34% as over half of members say the party should shift to the right. A hefty two-thirds say the UK should leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Leadership contenders need to come up with an answer to the Farage question, and quick…
Conference season is looming, and with the Tories faffing about with their four-month leadership competition, Guido hears Farage and his crew have been making hay for Reform ahead of its conference while the Tories flounder. Harvest is nearly upon us…
A Reform source says “we are much happier than we were this time last year” with tickets selling at a significantly faster rate. Tickets for Party Members cost £50 with attendance at an “Evening Gala Party with Nigel Farage and special guests” going for only £25. Dress to impress…
Platinum tickets are also available which, for the princely sum of £1,000, get you:
- A reserved parking spot.
- Access to all member events.
- Front row seats for speeches.
- Gala Party Ticket.
- Saturday Morning Champagne Breakfast with Reform Leadership.
- Photo with Nige.
For the first time, Reform’s conference is two days instead of one, and the BBC will have a dedicated studio to cover the event with concurrent on-location reporting from the likes of GB News and Times Radio. A sweet moment for Reform after the BBC called them ‘far-right’ earlier this year…
Friday 20th September will see Farage and co. make the usual political speeches in Birmingham’s National Exhibition Centre, before evening partying. Saturday will see work on putting the party constitution together, with “safeguards” in place to dodge any UKIP-style bust-ups. Reform is gearing up to launch over 100 local branches in the coming weeks, rallying their 75,000-and-counting paying members. Members who will soon be able to choose their leader…
Given the shrunken Tory activist base and the few Tory MPs still remaining are furious with Reform it is entirely unsurprising that the Tory leadership candidates seeking their votes are signaling “no deal” and saying words to the effect that they will have no truck with the catalyst for their general election thrashing. However if the Tory leadership contenders really don’t have a Farage strategy they are going to remain in opposition for a long time. Whilst Reform take votes from all quarters, research by YouGov immediately after the last election shows they took most of their voters from the Tories. That is the reality of the political predicament the next Tory leader will find themselves in.
Half the candidates standing are implicitly saying that they will occupy the same policy ground as Reform on immigration and somehow this will displace their rivals. Guido’s not so sure voters will trust them to execute on the policies better than they did last time. The other half of the candidates say the party must not occupy the same ground and that “elections are won from the centre”. The latter is a centrist’s nostrum that Margaret Thatcher and Boris Johnson might dispute.
There is no evidence that Nigel Farage is going away, he’s been in politics a quarter century and he’s now inside the Westminster parliament. There is arguably as much chance of Reform displacing the Conservatives as vice versa. Some argue that the British political system has a two-party centre of gravity and two-party politics will reassert itself, that may be true, however there is no guarantee the Tories will be one of those parties and the precedent of the SDP keeping Labour out of government for over a decade is not one many right-of-centre voters will relish.
The contenders for the Tory leadership have to articulate a real strategy for what to do about Nigel. Or else Nigel will do for them…
Suella has done her first interview since confirming she won’t stand for leadership of the Tories. When asked by Chopper how she felt at that moment, she said she was sorry to her supporters:
“You know I did have a lot of support from members of the party, I had 10 MPs who were prepared to sign my nomination form to get on the ballot. I was sorry to them because they decided to back me, I was sorry to the thousands of Tory members who had written to me in recent weeks urging me to go forward. But you know, I have to read the room. In Parliament I didn’t have the support to proceed and so it’s better for everybody.”
The Tories also got a convoluted threat of Suella’s long-rumoured Reform defection: “I’m not going to defect to Reform. And I hope I’m not driven out to Reform by my colleagues.” Stay right…
Guido hears Nigel Farage is now set to appear on BBC Question Time tomorrow in Epsom to tout Reform’s election message. That should be fun…
It’s the first time Farage will take to the crescent desk since all the way back in May 2019 – he’s set to appear along with Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Guido hears from Reform sources that the party is chuffed that he is keeping up his end of the bargain. He’s heading on The Sun‘s Never Mind the Ballots today, is set to appear alongside Richard Tice for an immigration conference tomorrow, and is out in Boston on Friday and Ashurst with Lee Anderson on Saturday. No days off being taken here…
Reform has kicked off it’s first election rally by branding the snap election “The Immigration Election”. Despite internal hopes Nigel Farage won’t be standing as a candidate, though Richard Tice says that he’s “delighted” to announce Nigel will campaign out and about with Reform candidates. Maybe they’ll run into Boris and the Tories…
Tice announces that he will personally stand for Boston and Skegness – the heart of leave voters – as his party puts up candidates in 630 seats total across England, Scotland, and Wales. He attacks the Tories with claims that everything is the worst is has been for “around 70 years“, including:
- Taxes
- State Spending.
- NHS waiting lists.
- National debt.
- Low growth decade.
- Longest recession per person.
Tice accused Sunak of bowing down to the “big man, big Lord Dave” in reversing the student visa crackdown and says “if you want change, vote for us“. What he really needs to convince voters of is that they have a chance: “We are going to win seats, we are going to win seats”…
Reform have more candidates than the Tories at the moment. Quite the early trigger-pull from Downing Street…
UPDATE: Tice’s chances aren’t terrible. YouGov’s latest MRP from March has voting intention split in Boston and Skegness at:
Con: 36%
Lab: 28%
Reform: 25%
Lib Dem: 7%
Green: 5%
UPDATE II: Farage cancels his GB News show for the election to free up time to campaign.
