Bank of England Predicts Two-Year Recession, Unemployment Forecast to Nearly Double

Aside from the breaking news about the massive interest rate rise, the Bank of England’s report today makes for grim reading. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projects a “prolonged period” of recession, with CPI inflation remaining over 10% in the near term. Even taking into account that economic predictions are about as reliable as a long-term weather forecast, the report makes for truly grim reading…

While inflation is expected to fall “sharply” from mid-2023, GDP is expected to decline by around 0.75% during the second half of 2022, and continue to fall throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024. The BBC says this would be the longest recession since records began in the 1920s, albeit not the deepest…

Perhaps most worrying of all for the government, the MPC expects the unemployment rate to rise to just under 6.5% by Q4 of 2025, up from the current 2022 Q4 projection of 3.7%. In real terms this would leave an extra million working brits on the dole. Perfect timing – right around the last possible election date…

mdi-timer 3 November 2022 @ 12:51 3 Nov 2022 @ 12:51 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Sunak warns of a “severe recession, the likes of which we haven’t seen”.
mdi-timer 19 May 2020 @ 15:14 19 May 2020 @ 15:14 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Strong July Growth as Recession Threat Dies

Threats of a recession in the UK have faded after the UK economy showed solid growth in July. Defying remainer expectations.

As the BBC’s Economics Editor, Faisal Islam, concedes, “strongly suggesting [a] return to growth in Q3, albeit Q3 hasn’t finished yet – so recession not looking likely”.

The 0.5% growth rate – driven greatly by construction growth – comes after a 0.2% contraction in the second quarter of the year, and marks the strongest month of growth since January. 0.3% growth is three times higher than predicted – expect more economic predictions to be defied over the coming months…

mdi-timer 9 September 2019 @ 11:00 9 Sep 2019 @ 11:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
71% of Economists Will Be Proved Wrong About Brexit

recession-forecast

The above survey by Bloomberg was published on June 29, 2016, just 6 days after Britain voted for Brexit. It is a survey of the City’s leading economists, some of the highest paid brains in Britain. 71% of them predicted Britain would go into recession in 2016. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch both said that the UK’s GDP would move dramatically negative, dropping 2.5% almost immediately. The only difference of opinion within the 71% was how soon it would come. Barclays claimed that Britain’s economy was already contracting…

All this is going to be proved wrong. The UK economy will probably grow by a respectable 2% or thereabouts this year, a rate many €urozone countries look at enviously. Is there a single City economist still willing to bet Guido £1,000 that by the end of this year Britain will be in recession?

mdi-timer 1 September 2016 @ 12:27 1 Sep 2016 @ 12:27 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments