Eyebrows have long been raised about the widely-cited “independent” Institute for Fiscal Studies report into private school VAT. It has been used to “fact check” widely-held worries that Starmer’s class war on private schools will 1) funnel unsustainable numbers of children into the state system, and 2) not raise enough money. The report has for many months been the only shield for Labour politicians seeking to bat away legitimate concerns over its tax plan…

Last week it was confirmed that already 10,540 fewer students are at private schools – and that’s before Labour’s tax is even introduced. The IFS claimed 17,000-40,000 students in total would shift to the state sector. Co-conspirators might wonder why their report is so sympathetic to Labour’s policy…

As it turns out the caveat-filled report’s only author Luke Sibieta has been close mates for years with the Labour minister responsible for its implementation. Sibieta and Matthew Pennycook lived together in the noughties – Pennycook was even Sibieta’s best man at his wedding. Details of which have been meticulously scrubbed from almost everywhere on the internet…

The government has confirmed that the business rates policy change, one half of the tax raid on private schools, “will be legislated for through a Local Government Finance Bill led by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.” Pennycook’s department…

Lobby journalists treat interventions from ‘independent’ tax-fanatics at the IFS – such as today’s new call to massively hike capital gains tax – as gospel. Maybe when hacks work out that these wonks might not be as impartial as they are so desperate to appear they will treat endlesss calls for tax increases with a little more scepticism…

Ahead of Reeves’ budget this month Labour policies are costing the Treasury before they’ve even come into place. New analysis from the Independent Schools Council, the largest body representing private schools in the UK, has found that 10,540 fewer students than last year were attending private schools in September ahead of the imposition of the tax at the start of 2025. At a cost of £92.8 million to the taxpayer…

The ISC’s chief executive Julie Robinson makes clear this is just the start:

“This is just the tip of the iceberg and the knock-on effect on schools is significant, with many small schools already at risk of closure.”

The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ sham analysis, which Labour has used consistently to defend its policy, claimed that in total only 40,000 children would be pushed into the state system. Other reports find that so many may leave as to make the policy fully cost-negative within a few years. Bridget Phillipson has also hinted that unannounced tax hikes will be needed to hire more teachers on top of the “£1.5 billion” she says will be collected from the VAT. Rayner and Reeves are getting closer to their old proposal of abolishing private schools altogether…

Today in the Commons Richard Tice hit out at Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson over the government’s “deeply misguided” VAT hike on private schools. The Reform MP challenged the minister over the impending state school “capacity crisis”, a product of “thousands of children being forced out of independent schools.” Tice making himself a grade A headache already…

This comes after it was revealed some state schools are asking parents to prove they can no longer afford their private school fees to secure a place at a local state school. This is just the beginning…

The Reform MP said: “I have a list of 20 schools in Buckinghamshire alone that have no places whatsoever. In Bristol, the City Council is considering buying places from an independent school.” If this happened, it would mean a child attending private school at the taxpayers’ expense, despite having just been there at their parents’ expense. Labour logic…

Education secretary Bridget Phillipson had the morning round on the Today Programme to discuss Labour’s scrapping Ofsted’s one-word rating system. After dismissing concerns over recruitment on the grounds that more people will want to work for Labour’s nicer Ofsted, she was pushed on costs. Phillipson initially claimed that levying VAT on private schools would be sufficient because “it raises quite a lot of money… £.3-1.5 billion net.” That line didn’t last long…

When Phillipson was pushed again she backed off and said she was “confident that we will have the resources that we need… both through the tax changes and as part of the budget“. Labour is aggressively pitch-rolling for tax hikes come October’s budget…

Labour is right to avoid putting much stock in their private school tax – new research by the Adam Smith Institute projects that parents whose children are forced out of fee-paying education will actually cost the Treasury up to £2 billion by spending more on leisure instead. Rayner and Reeves won’t be happy until private schools are gone altogether…

Co-conspirators will remember the “independent” Institute for Fiscal Studies report into private school VAT. The paper was jumped on by Labour and left-wing papers to “fact check” widely-held worries that Starmer’s class war on private schools will 1) funnel unsustainable numbers of children into the state system, and 2) not raise enough money. The paper allowed Labour politicians to “disagree” with challenges from the industry in media appearances, all without scrutiny…

The caveat-filled report’s author Luke Sibieta said he expects “that the change in private school attendance levels will be small. This leads to surer increases in tax revenues and less need for additional public spending on state schools.” Where Sibieta claims the policy will raise “£1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run” because only 40,000 children will switch to the state system, the vast majority of other reports predict that the policy will actually be cost-negative before too long. Guido wonders if there is any particular reason why the report’s author would want to support the policy…

Sibieta studied at UCL, teaching at which was Francis Green, chairman of the Private Education Policy Forum – an organisation which seeks to disparage and ultimately disband private schools. They have both contributed to the IFS’ major “Inequality Review”. Two months ago Green appeared at the PEPF to chat about his Labour-supporting report. Privately-educated Green also happens to have advised Jeremy Corbyn when the VAT policy and others were first drafted in 2017. Seven years later the PEPF is drawing up plans with the Labour Party for the state to take over schools that are forced to shut due to the extra tax. No wonder that Sibieta has produced a paper in support of a policy to further that plan…

UPDATE: The IFS says: “Luke cannot recall ever having met Francis“.

Labour’s flagship measure to add VAT to private school fees – leading to a 20% hike in fees for parents, pressuring aspirational families – has been repeatedly defended by Keir Starmer on the campaign. Guido revealed evidence that Labour’s hatred of independent schools runs deep…

Now newly uncovered minutes from governors’ meetings at Eleanor Palmer Primary School – which was attended by both of Starmer’s children – reveal that Lady Victoria Starmer lobbied hard against proposals to encourage affluent parents in the catchment area to make voluntary donations to help fund additional opportunities such as music, art and sport. ‘Lady Vic’ was a governor at Eleanor Palmer from 2015 to 2019 – and as with all schools, the minutes are public. In 2013 the school – one of the ‘best’ state primaries in the country – received media coverage for its tiny catchment area – just 167 metres, or the same length as Roman Abramovich’s yacht…

In January 2019, the school’s headteacher told the quarterly meeting of governors that the school was facing a funding deficit for the year ahead. Suggestions from some at the meeting that more affluent parents be asked to make voluntary donations were shot down by Victoria Starmer:

‘Governors questioned whether it was now time to look at asking for covenants from parents. There were a number of affluent parents in every year group, some of whom had expressed a willingness to give money to the school. Flora Cornish and Vicky Starmer said that they had concerns around inclusivity and requests for donations and covenants. Flora Cornish expressed unease about any ideas of entitlement that may sit alongside covenants.’

‘Lady Vic’ went further:

‘Vicky Starmer asked Governors to consider the feelings of families unable to donate money… Vicky Starmer said that some parents think that the school has a lot of money given the demographic and the apparent good resourcing. Vicky Starmer asked whether the school could work with other local schools regarding the funding crisis. The Head said that head teachers talk together about funding regularly. As Camden had historically been so well funded, the shift in funding was now marked, but most schools were working independently on fundraising…Vicky Starmer stressed that it should be clear that the funds were not for topping up the state budget for core curriculum and services. The Chair said that the school could not set a budget that did that.’