1,750 criminals are set to walk free from UK prisons today, after serving a measly 40% of their sentences as the prison population has exploded to a record-breaking 88,521. There were fewer than 300 spaces left for male prisoners yesterday, prompting the government prepare to scramble towards a desperate “one-in, one-out” scheme…

Worryingly, a “high proportion” of those released are domestic abusers, with Chief Inspector of Probation Martin Jones predicting “around a third” of today’s fresh releases will reoffend. Homeless and jobless, they’ll be hitting the streets, adding to the chaos. So the problem won’t necessarily be solved…

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, as ever, was quick to point fingers at the Tories for leaving prisons with “no capacity” for having to release criminals after serving less than half their sentence. Conveniently, he forgets this was, in fact, a Tory policy—as Guido reported earlier this year. Meanwhile, the BBC are rolling live coverage from Wormwood Scrubs as prisoners start to be released in the next few hours. Not exactly the best optics for Labour…

Border Security minister Angela Eagle confirmed on Sky News reports that Labour has renewed Tory plans to farm out prisoners to Estonia. The ones who aren’t being let out early, that is…

When Alex Chalk announced the last government’s intention to use rented spaces in Eastern Europe estimates placed the cost well above that of housing a prisoner in England or Wales. Especially as the expectation is that the taxpayer will have to fund flights for visitors…

Estonia’s Justice Secretary is keen:

“The UK and Estonia have a history of successful international co-operation, and such a partnership would create further opportunities to benefit and learn from each other.”

The MoJ say “all viable options” are on the table. And they said globalisation was dead…

Last week Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has announced plans to release thousands of prisoners early by reducing the minimum sentence term spent in prison from 50% to 40%. A Tory plan that Guido revealed first back in May…

The public aren’t happy with it. New YouGov research finds that a whopping 71% oppose the policy. Only one in six (17%) are in support. It sits at the bottom of the list of preferred solutions to the overcrowding crisis…

This comes as the ONS drops crime statistics which show a 40% increase in theft, shoplifting at a two-decade high, and robbery up 8%. Most popular solutions include deporting foreign criminals and building more prisons. A far cry from the current policy – releasing convicts en masse into the streets…

As predicted, new Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood has announced plans to release thousands of prisoners early. Labour will reduce the minimum sentence term spent in prison from 50% to 40%. Most prisoners currently serve 50% of their sentence in jail, with the remaining 50% being served on licence and under threat of being returned to prison…

Criminal justice liberals are over the moon. Pia Sinha, chief executive of the Prison Reform Trust, said:

“In this moment of crisis for the prisons system, the incoming government has had the good sense to listen to the advice of its officials and introduce further emergency measures to prevent dangerous levels of overcrowding and the criminal justice system literally grinding to a halt.”

Other left wing NGOs have been stacked up by Labour to issue positive comments. Let’s see how it goes down with the public…

Away from the Biden clown show, some serious rubber is hitting the road back in the UK on criminal justice. ‘Mr Rules’ Starmer is planning to release thousands of serious offenders because of the ‘prisons crisis’ which the Labour government has suddenly discovered. Labour’s new spin machine is in overdrive attempting to shift the blame onto the Tories. Previous Tory governments of course knew the situation was bad, but former Justice ministers and SpAds tell Guido they simply would not consider a mass release of dangerous offenders…

Now the aunt of Zara Aleena – who was murdered by a man who had been out of prison on licence for nine days – warned that releasing inmates is “a dangerous gamble with public safety” if the probation service is unable to cope. Farah Naz told BBC Breakfast:

“If the system cannot deal with those people being released into the community, then those people are not going to be supervised adequately. And when people, perpetrators, even thieves are not supervised adequately, crime can escalate. It doesn’t always escalate, but it can. Then we’ve got unsupervised people because of a poor probation service in the community and people become emboldened – ‘well I can do what I like if nobody is supervising me’ – and that’s what happened in our situation. It was a man that was emboldened because he was not supervised, he was not assessed, he was constantly allowed to do what he wanted to do, and therein lies a dangerous gamble with public safety with this move right now.”

Meanwhile Lord Macdonald, Keir Starmer’s predecessor as DPP, made the consequences clear:

“If you release a big batch of prisoners, some of them will go on to offend….We have the worst recidivism rates in Western Europe. Overall, 25 per cent of people who are released from prison go on to reoffend. Of the juvenile population, it’s over 80 per cent.”

This is Starmer’s first real crunch with serious cut through and is a political choice – meanwhile CCHQ is populated by tumbleweed…

Criminals could be released from prison after serving only 43% of their sentence under proposals contained in the Sentencing Bill, Guido hears. Currently, under the Criminal Justice Act 2003, prisoners serving what are termed “standard determinate sentences” are automatically released after serving 50% of their sentence. Issues such as overcrowding are pressuring ministers to make it even earlier…

Officials warned that if the legislation isn’t passed by June, it could spark riots and leave prison vans with nowhere to take criminals. Guido is told No10 remain fearful of backlash from the right of the parliamentary party. Meanwhile, proposals to effectively scrap prison sentences of less than 12 months have been dropped. Gareth Bacon, the Bill Minister, is credited by government insiders with getting the shorter prison times over the line. As leadership contenders circle this is tinderbox stuff for Sunak…