Unaired YouGov Poll: Remain 50.6% Leave 49.4%

Curiously, Newsnight pulled the plug on a new YouGov poll showing just a percentage point difference between the Leavers and the Remainers last night. 5,000 people were surveyed online for the What UK Thinks website, one of the largest recent sample sizes on the referendum. The numbers were lined up for Newsnight, yet they were pulled at 10:28 pm. Matthew Goodwin, one of the academics who carried out the research, ain’t impressed, telling Guido:

“I am disappointed that despite promises of coverage a large survey, funded by a research council and relevant to the national debate, was shunted at the last minute with no warning.”

Newsnight say it was a “timing” issue…

The survey also asked how people would vote when prompted with different scenarios about whether the party leaders recommended to Remain or Leave. Farage looks pretty priced in, though the data suggests if Corbyn stuck to his Bennite Eurosceptic principles and backed a Leave vote that could swing it. Either way, it’s all to play for…

UPDATE: Newsnight editor Ian Katz gets in touch to emphasise that the poll was not commissioned by Newsnight.

Poll: Where’s Jezza?

Jeremy Corbyn is rumoured to be missing his date with Liz because he is on holiday, yet his spokesman will not confirm where he is. Where do Guido readers think he has gone? Take our poll…

Globe-Trot-er…

YouGov: Corbyn Most Unpopular Oppositon Leader Ever

Corbyn became the first Labour leader ever to score a negative personal rating in his first Ipsos Mori poll last week. Today he has the worst first rating of any opposition leader ever with YouGov:

Why don’t the voters just JOIN THE TORIES?

Public Prefer Boris to Osborne

An Ipsos Mori poll for the Standard this afternoon finds the public prefer Boris to Osborne as the next Tory leader by almost two to one. Osborne is ahead only among Tory supporters…

YouGov Poll Puts Brexit in the Lead

YouGov for the Times shows 40% of voters are backing Brexit, ahead of those who want to remain in by 2 points:

timse yougov poll

It’s on…

Poll: Corbyn Worst Start For Any Labour Leader Ever

Political Betting’s Mike Smithson points out that Jeremy Corbyn is the first Labour leader ever to score a negative personal net satisfaction rating in his first Ipsos Mori poll:

But apparently “Corbynmania is sweeping the nation”…

No Corbyn Poll Bounce

Bad news for Jezza from ComRes:

The Tories hold a 12 point lead up on 42%…

And the personal ratings of Labour’s new top team are dire:

Almost as if people don’t like politicians who support the IRA…

Corbyn’s First Poll Results

Why don’t the public just JOIN THE TORIES?

Labour’s 22% Strategy

Ed Miliband was famously accused of seeking the support of just 35% of voters, a modest target of which he fell 5 points short. Well, judging by today’s ComRes poll, the best the next Labour leader can hope for is 22%:

Meanwhile the Tories are on 42%, their highest poll rating for 5 years. Come back, Ed, all is forgiven…

Most Tory MPs Want Corbyn to Lead Labour

Who would you most cheer as the next leader of the Labour Party?

Tory MPs for Corbyn

Lobby shop Maitland Political* asked backbench Conservative MPs who they favour being elected leader of the Labour Party next month. Corbyn was the overwhelming choice of 54% of Tory MPs…

*Maitland Political surveyed a sample of 89 backbench Conservative MPs between 1-16 August 2015.

Corbyn 32 Points Ahead in New Poll

YouGov for the Times say Corbyn has extended his lead of three weeks ago from 17 points to 32:

One more heave, comrades…

New Private Poll: Corbyn 22 Points Clear

The Mirror have got hold of some more private Labour polling:

Burnham slips to third place, Corbyn still well out in front…

UPDATE:  Kendall camp responds:

“So-called “private polls” have no credibility and people should take no notice of them. If people have a real poll produced by a BPC member they should release it, rather than peddling questionable numbers”

YOUGOV: CORBYN WAY AHEAD

corbyn

UPDATE: It’s happening…

Tories 12% Ahead

image003

Tories 12% ahead and UKIP still holding on to third place.

If anyone believes polls any more…

Greek Poll Has “No” Side Ahead

greek-no

Greece looks likely to reject the creditors’ bailout according to the latest poll published today. Asked how they would vote in a referendum – assuming it goes ahead – 46% said they back the “no” vote, down from 57%, with “yes” up to 37% from 30%. Undecideds at 17% may yet say “yes” to the austerity status quo…

*Pollster ProRata and published in the daily newspaper Efimerida ton Syntaktonthis morning.

Ipsos Mori: Stewart Lewis Polling Surprisingly Well

stewart-lewisJust to see if the British public is paying attention pollsters Ipsos Mori added in a fake name to the leadership race survey. “Stewart Lewis” is giving Jeremy Corbyn a run for his money and the dummy name polls better amongst Labour supporters than the general public. This supports Guido’s long held view that Labour supporters are less informed and more stupid than the rest of us… 

Poll Finds Pollsters Less Trusted Than Bankers

pollster-poll

This poll from PLMR and ComRes reveals of 17% of people trust pollsters, whilst 18% trust bankers. That seems a very small difference well within the margin of error. In fact did no one at PLMR see the paradox in asking pollsters to find out how much pollsters are trusted? Politician is still by far the least trusted profession. Which shows people ain’t stupid…

Survey Shows Voters Think Labour Too Left-Wing

labour too left wing

In a survey for the Sunday Times 40% of voters think the next Labour leader should move closer to the centre. Even 35% of Labour voters think they should move to the centre though a worrying 30% think Labour should move to the left. A 30% rump led by the likes of Owen Jones, who is like one of those Japanese soldiers marooned on a pacific island who refuses to surrender, ranting against austerity in his Guardian column…

Official: Lazy Socialists Lost the Election

Most of the analysis of the pollsters’ collective nightmare has blamed the ‘Shy Tories’ – people who planned on voting Tory but didn’t tell the pollsters. Ipsos MORI have a different theory: that ‘Lazy Labour’ supporters not turning up to vote skewed the numbers.

The final MORI poll suggested 12.5 million people would vote Tory, just ahead of 12.2 million voting Labour.

They weren’t too far off on the Tory number – 11.3 million voted Tory on the day – but some 3 million Labour supporters went missing. Where did they go? MORI chief Ben Page says:

“we think not voted. Predicted turnout 82% day before. Was only 66%”

Their analysis suggests it was young left-wing voters not turning out on the day that explains the difference. The Russell Brand effect…

Exit Poll: CON 316 LAB 239 LD 10 SNP 58 UKIP 2

BUT this is what YouGov say:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/596056851625746433/photo/1[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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Michael Crick on Safe Seats:

“In effect, new MPs are being elected day by day now, as, amid huge secrecy, small cabals of party bigwigs pick candidates for safe seats.”

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