Leave Ahead in New ORB Poll

Taking account people’s likelihood to vote, OBR finds Leave has a 7 point lead on Remain. Sir Lynton Crosby tells the Telegraph Project Fear isn’t working…

ICM Poll Has Tories and Labour Level

guido poll

The latest ‘gold standard’ ICM poll has the Tories and Labour level on 36% each. For the first time since Corbyn’s election the two parties are neck and neck. Corbyn surge!

ConHome Poll: Buy Boris, Sell Osborne

Boris is well out in front in the latest ConHome Tory leadership survey, taking a 13 point lead on his closest rival. Second and third place go to Gove and Fox, two of the most vocal Eurosceptics, while Osborne slumps to fourth place on a dire 11%. According to this snapshot May and Saj are out of it. The Leavers are on the up, the Remainers are on the slide. Boris’ gamble looks to be paying off…

Boris Ahead of Osborne with Association Chairmen and Members

Yesterday the Telegraph polled 50 Tory association heads about their choice for next leader. Of those who’ve made up their minds, Boris is backed by 46% and Osborne 31%. Today’s Times has a Yougov poll of 1005 Tory members, Boris is on 43%, well ahead of Osborne on 22%. Again, May and Sajid have slipped well of the pace after choosing to back Remain. Boris is almost twice as popular as George with members, No. 10 is slowly slipping away from the Chancellor…

Tory Grassroots Poll: Boris Beats Osborne, Remainers Sink

If it’s a straight fight between Boris and Osborne on the Tory leadership ballot paper there is only one winner. The Telegraph have polled the heads of 50 Conservative associations and Boris is the preferred choice, though almost half are undecided. May is down on four after she backed Remain, and Sajid Javid languishes with just one association head supporter after his flip flop. Tory associations back Leave over Remain by 12 points, so Boris’ bravery is paying off and the Remainers are paying the price…

Osborne’s Ratings Hit Three Year Low

Osborne Poll

These numbers from Ipsos MORI and the Standard confirm Osborne is on the wane. His public satisfaction rating has dropped from his highest ever score of 47% in April 2014 to a three year low of 40%. His dissatisfaction rating has meanwhile risen to 46%, meaning Osborne is now more unpopular than Alistair Darling in 2008. That is quite a downturn

Gap Closing in Referendum Phone Polls

Perceived polling wisdom – or what is left of it – says that referendum polls conducted by phone should be considerably more accurate than those done online. Tonight’s ComRes phone poll has Remain’s lead cut significantly since Cameron’s renegotiation deal. The trend across all polls is that Remain are falling and Leave are in the ascendancy… 

Leave Ahead With ICM

For the first time since 2013, Leave are ahead with ICM. They are still the gold standard pollster according to Political Betting polling guru Mike Smithson…

Leave 9 Points Ahead Since Dave’s Deal

EU REFORM

The key numbers from this morning’s YouGov referendum poll, the first since Dave’s deal:

  • Leave: 45% (+3)
  • Remain: 36% (-2)

The PM’s deal:

  • Goes too far: 4%
  • Is about right: 17%
  • Doesn’t go far enough: 56%

It is:

  • A good deal: 22%
  • A bad deal: 46%

The biggest lead for Leave since the question was announced last summer…

Via @britainelects

Corbyn Surges Ahead of Foot

Great success! Corbyn is not the worst performing Labour leader after the first four months in the job. Jez has surged ahead of Michael Foot, he’s on minus 18 points with Ipsos Mori. Onwards, comrades…

Just 16% Back Corbyn, Worst Rating Since 80s

poll

Yet more brutal numbers for Labour in the latest Mori / Standard poll. Cue tweets from deluded Corbynistas about “right wing polls”…

Corbyn Approval Rating Minus 39

Latest figures from YouGov via Britain ElectsRemember, pollsters say it’s possible they are still overestimating Labour support…

Corbyn Approval Rating Minus 32 With YouGov

With impeccable timing, some new YouGov numbers this afternoon via Britain Elects. Wonder if Corbyn’s aides paused the reshuffle discussions to tell the boss…

Labour Membership’s Present to the Tories

corbyn-polling

As we end the political season and focus on the festivities one last look at the polls for Comrade Corbyn. YouGov shows him with a net minus of 41% on the question “Is he doing well?” Opinium find the public has a net favourable rating of minus 28%, ComRes has him at negative 21% in the “Good leader?” stakes and on balance net satisfaction with Jezza is only minus 17%. Happy Christmas!

Hat-tip: @liamjlhill

Leave Leads By 2 Points in 10,000 Person Survation Mega-Poll

Two more polls on the referendum today. Leave has a 2 point lead in this 10,000 person mega-poll from Survation:

Survation poll

While Remain is ahead by just one point with ICM:

ICM

When undecided voters aren’t included ICM has both Remain and Leave on 50%. It’s all to play for…

Feldman’s Record Breaking Disapproval Swing

Beleagured Lord Feldman’s Tory bullying troubles have not gone unnoticed among party members. The Tory chairman has suffered a record-breaking 53 point drop in his net satisfaction rating among ConHome readers, the largest one month fall ever recorded. He is also the first to have a negative approval rating this parliament. ‘Red Hot’ Rob Halfon also took a battering and is down to second from bottom. How’s that whole buck-stopping-with-Shapps thing working out for ya?

More On That Corbynista ‘Voodoo Poll’

yg-poll-raf

Labour voters Labour members Corbyn electors
Approve 52% 28% 16%
Disapprove 26% 58% 72%
Don’t Know 22% 14% 12%

Above is a YouGov poll which found that only 26% of Labour voters disapprove of bombing Syria, this rises to 58% of Labour members and 72% of Corbyn backing Labour members. Yet somehow the Corbynistas have counted a sample of 1,900 responses out of 107,875 they got back from an email burst and found 75% of members oppose the RAF bombing ISIS in Syria. How can this be?

Well it all depends who is doing the counting. Guido is told by a source inside Labour HQ that the counting was done by the new digital chief,  Ben Soffa. Who is Ben?

Ben is a new Corbynista appointee, his previous job was spinning for the militant TSSA union, before that he was spinning for the CND, did digital stuff for Hacked Off and was the secretary of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign. An impartial counter of votes, really?

Poll: Should Feldman Resign?

This is of course an unrepresentative online poll, however if it is good enough for Corbyn to decide if the nation should go to war, it is good enough to decide if someone should resign…

Labour Members Back Corbyn

Labour members have delivered a resounding vote of confidence in Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership in a YouGov poll for the Times. 66% of Labour members say Corbyn is doing well, 86% of those who voted for Corbyn agree, and 57% of Labour members say he should lead the party in 2020. A warning to moderates that a coup will not reflect the popular will of the party grassroots. Just don’t mention the 11 point Tory lead with ComRes…

Osborne Sinks to Third in Tory Leader Race

Osborne Crisis Poll

As well as having the worst October borrowing figures for six years, Osborne today slipped to third in the leadership polls among Tory voters. He is down 9% with Ipsos Mori. Boris is well ahead and even T-May is ahead of George…[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



Tip offs: 0709 284 0531
team@Order-order.com

Quote of the Day

Alan Sugar on Jeremy Corbyn:

“It’s clear you alluded to students refunds to get votes from young impressionable people. You are a cheat and should resign.”

Sponsors

Guidogram: Sign up

Subscribe to the most succinct 7 days a week daily email read by thousands of Westminster insiders.
Exclusive: New Government Appointments in Full Exclusive: New Government Appointments in Full
Corbyn Deletes Another Wrong Tweet Corbyn Deletes Another Wrong Tweet
Everything is Awesome for Manufacturing Everything is Awesome for Manufacturing
HMT Predictions Way Off HMT Predictions Way Off
#DespiteBrexit: A Classic of the Genre #DespiteBrexit: A Classic of the Genre
Hat-Trick of Brexit Good News Hat-Trick of Brexit Good News
Guido’s Student Debt Story on Standard Front Page Guido’s Student Debt Story on Standard Front Page
Watch: Shadow Minister Makes Student Debt Promise Watch: Shadow Minister Makes Student Debt Promise
IPSO Throws Out Baroness Scotland Complaints IPSO Throws Out Baroness Scotland Complaints
100% Inheritance Tax: Stupid or Evil? 100% Inheritance Tax: Stupid or Evil?
Paul Mason’s Play in 60 Seconds Paul Mason’s Play in 60 Seconds
Sunday Shows Sunday Shows
City Confident as Hiring Rates Rocket City Confident as Hiring Rates Rocket
Watch: Best Maiden Speech of 2017 Intake Watch: Best Maiden Speech of 2017 Intake
Child Protection Investigation ‘Stalled to Help Labour’ Child Protection Investigation ‘Stalled to Help Labour’
Davis Accepts Donations from Top Blairite and TV Remainer Davis Accepts Donations from Top Blairite and TV Remainer
BBC #NotOnTheList Stars Paid Via Production Companies BBC #NotOnTheList Stars Paid Via Production Companies
Pants-Wearing Councillor Boasted He Had “Vaz in My Right Pocket” Pants-Wearing Councillor Boasted He Had “Vaz in My Right Pocket”
Champion: ‘Not Possible’ to Keep Student Debt Promise Champion: ‘Not Possible’ to Keep Student Debt Promise
BBC Rich List Revealed: Salaries In Full BBC Rich List Revealed: Salaries In Full