Whilst one swallow does not a summer make, Downing Street will be hoping the positive reception for the Northern Ireland deal, following on from encouraging economic news, could mean that “the bottom” is in for Rishi’s popularity. YouGov’s latest polling shows a definite uptick for him.
As inflation subsides, the annual winter NHS crisis recedes and the economy rebounds from the Ukraine shock, Rishi’s ratings – whilst still negative – appear to have bottomed. The Tories have been some 20 points behind Labour for months now. Could that be about to change?
The latest instalment of Conservative Home’s cabinet league table paints a somewhat promising picture for the government. Most cabinet ministers see modest increases in support, with Ben Wallace still leading the pack on 83%. Amongst the big winners are Dominic Raab and Suella Braverman, who have seen support rise by 20% and 16% respectively. The Scottish trans row is currying favour for some, as Alister Jack climbs into fifth place.
Kemi Badenoch is in a strong second place based on the polling, which was done before her anti-Boris activism came out. That may lead to a discount next month. Rishi sees a modest increase in his support, whilst Jeremy Hunt drops further, by around 7%. Thérèse Coffey also slides into the red. The real loser for the week is Johnny Mercer, who’s fallen 19 points, from fourth to thirteenth. Picking a fight with Ben Wallace is clearly not the way to Conservative members’ hearts.
Nadine has confirmed the inevitable. She’s off…
“Those MPs who drank the Kool-Aid and got rid of Boris Johnson are already asking themselves the question: who next? And I’m afraid that the lack of cohesion, the infighting and occasionally the sheer stupidity from those who think we could remove a sitting Prime Minister, who secured a higher percentage of the vote share than Tony Blair did in 1997, just three short years ago… That they could do that and the public would let us get away with it, I’m afraid it’s this behaviour that I now just have to remove myself from. And so, despite it being a job that I’ve loved for every year that I’ve done it, I’m now off.”
And another one…
UPDATE: Of the 19 Tory MPs who have said they are standing down before the next election she was one of the few forecast to hold on to her seat:
Doesn’t mean we won’t be seeing her in parliament though…
A new poll from PeoplePolling presents a bleak picture of the challenges facing Rishi Sunak. In addition to putting the Conservatives on a meagre 22%, the pollster asked about Britons’ confidence in the government’s ability to deal with small boat crossings. A staggering 57% of voters are “not at all confident” the government can solve the crisis. This lack of confidence is even shared by 2019 Conservative voters: 52% have no confidence…
The pollster then asked a question of EU membership, with the results raising questions of some recent pro-remain punditry. When asked for simple join/stay out preferences, voters opted to rejoin by a margin of 8%. When this was contextualised with the implications of joining (single-market membership, free movement and the application of EU laws) this lead shrunk to just 3%. Well within the margin of error. Context is key…
A new MRP poll from Savanta, based on a 20-point lead over the Tories, shows Labour on course for a mind-blowing 314-seat majority. MRP polls have proved historically accurate in 2017 and 2019. The poll shows the Tories holding no seats more northerly than South Holland and The Deepings in Lincolnshire, with Rishi losing his seat and 27,000 majority. Ironically Liz Truss keeps her seat…
The poll shows an absolute wipe-out for the Tories. They would be left with just 69 seats (no sniggering).
Based on a scan of the hexagonal map provided by Savanta, big-name Tories who might cling on include Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Michael Gove, Kit Malthouse and Tom Tugendhat. Boris would lose his seat, along with all Tory seats in the capital. The captain of the Titanic would look at this poll and think, “Biggest iceberg ever!”…
As Mick Lynch has pulled the emergency brake on his pledge that rail strikes would not disrupt Christmas journeys, public support has shifted markedly away from the RMT’s industrial action. A majority of voters – 51% – now oppose the Christmas strikes, with just 37% supporting them. This is an eight-point shift since YouGov last asked. Who could have foreseen that people might not like their Christmas plans being upended…
