Owen Jones’ Lexit U-Turn

Owen Jones Lexit

Owen Jones is a fully signed-up Remainer these days. He has joined John McDonnell’s Another Europe is Possible group in calling for a “radical In vote” and spent today lamenting polls putting Leave ahead. Yet only a year ago Owen was a self-proclaimed Lexiteer, making the left-wing case for Leave. As late as last July, OJ told us:

“The case for Lexit grows ever stronger, and – at the very least – more of us need to start dipping our toes in the water.” 

As for McDonnell, for whom a young Owen was once a bag-carrier, the conversion has been even more dramatic. This explicit call to Leave is from 2014:

Interesting that both Owen and McDonnell are ditching their long-held views on the EU. It’s not just Tories who are selling out to help their careers…

Remainer Mercer Ignores Constituents

MERCER poll

To the surprise of absolutely no-one, Tory MP Johnny Mercer finally came out for Remain yesterday. This morning he writes for ConHome calling Farage “pathetic“. What Johnny doesn’t mention is that just a few weeks ago, when he was supposedly still making up his mind, he polled his constituents about how they would be voting. Over 400 responded, with 74.1% of Plymouth Moor View residents backing Leave. Just 19.2% supported Remain. Mercer won his seat by 1,000 votes in 2015, with UKIP coming third with over 9,000 votes. Ammo for them in 2020…

Leave Lead By 5 Points With ICM

New ICM online poll out this morning:

Leave: 48% (+1)

Remain: 43% (-1)

Don’t Know: 9%

Without Don’t Knows:

Leave: 53%

Remain: 47%

All three polls out today have Leave in front…

Two New Polls Put Leave Ahead

POLLS

Leave are ahead for the first time with YouGov/GMB, and are also beating Remain with TNS. The YouGov poll finds immigration is the key issue for voters. 17 days to go – Brexit has the big mo…

+ + + ICM SHOWS LEAVE AHEAD PHONE & ONLINE + + +

gbp

ICM has Leave on 45% versus 42% for Remain, with 13% saying don’t know. Excluding “don’t knows” that’s 52% for Brexit, against 48% for Remain.

Online ICM has 47% for Leave, and 44% Remain, with 9% saying they don’t know. Again that is  52% to 48% in favour of Leaving excluding don’t knows.

ORB for The Telegraph this morning had it:

orb-chart

Squeaky bum time in Downing Street…

Leave Poll Surge as Migrant Crisis Cuts Through

migrants

These are all front page headlines from the last seven days. They’re from Remain-backing papers as well as Leave. With three weeks to go immigration is the main story in town – whether it’s net migration rising to 330,000 or the 18 Albanians rescued off the Kent coast. A new Telegraph/ORB poll this morning shows that in the past week Remain’s lead has been cut from 13 points to just five. Immigration was always going to be Vote Leave’s trump card – 23 days to go…

2% Think Osborne “Natural Leader”

George Osborne Boom and Bust

Osborne’s meteoric fall continues, with a YouGov poll for the Times reporting that just 2% of voters think he’s a “natural leader”. Only 11% say he would be up to the PM’s job, with that number plunging to just 7% among Brexit supporters. Sajistic Tories who backed Remain as a career move must be kicking themselves…

Momentum Rejoice! Only 65% Think Corbyn Not Ready to be PM

corbyn READY TO BE PM

Corbyn has always had a popularity problem within Labour. He was less popular than both Gordon and Red Ed when he took over in September, and scored an identical net dislike for both himself and his party as Tony Blair was quitting in 2007. Things may have got a little better…

According to Ipsos Mori, just 22% think Corbyn is ready to be PM – one point higher than Ed in 2015 – while 65% think he is not ready. While this figure would be crushing to any other candidate, for a beleaguered Labour Party this figure might show some hope. The figure ties with Ed Miliband’s second best ever score (his best being 63% thinking he was not ready). When asked whether Labour were ready to form the next government, Corbyn’s Labour trumped the former leader’s last score in November 2014, with a whopping 27% saying they were ready (and just 63% saying they weren’t). Of course, for context David Cameron’s lowest score in 2008 was 43% believing he wasn’t ready to be PM (43% also agreed he was ready), while at the same time 45% agreed the Conservative’s were ready to form a government. Corbyn is more divisive than Ed, but not more popular. Join the Tories if you want to vote for the next PM in their leadership contest…

71% of Scots Think Corbyn’s a Disaster

YouGov Regional Poll Labour

YouGov’s poll of Labour members produced a miserable top-line figure for ardent Corbynistas, showing just 18% of members thought the left-wing leader had done well in the recent round of local and PCC elections. Although that’s not so bad considering he’s the first opposition leader to have lost local seats in over 30 years…

Looking at the regional breakdown, a much bigger problem for Corbyn emerges. Part of the supposed “logic” Corbynistas wheeled out during his election as party leader was that his left-wing, anti-austerity stance could win over the Scotch who had fled to the SNP in droves. Far from Corbyn’s prediction of a crushing victory over the Nats in Hollyrood, Labour managed to lose 13 seats, plummeting behind the hated Tories. As a result, Labour supporters north of the border are not impressed: 71% of them think the party did badly, with 41% believing he did very badly. Inevitably, London felt most positively about the Islingtonian-led party, with 20% approving of Labour’s performance. Corbyn has the same North London metropolitan elite problem as Miliband…

Gove Tops ConHome Poll Again

Gove extends his lead as ConHome readers’ favourite for next Tory leader, rising another five points this month. May also had a good month, though Boris slipped a couple of points and Osborne dropped another percentage point to just 8%. Will certainly add fuel to those Gove for deputy PM rumours…

YouGov: Majority Know Celebrity Threesome Identity

The decision on whether the celebrity threesome injunction is to be lifted will be announced at 12:30pm. This morning YouGov found 55% of the 2,000 plus polled now know the identities of those involved. Not to mention anyone and everyone in the US, Canada, Scotland, Sweden and China. The gagging order has been rendered meaningless…

Farage, Like Marmite, is Popular

farage

Nigel Farage is under pressure internally from carping ‘Kippers and Farage-sceptic fellow Brexiteers of the Tory persuasion. UKIP are reminding everyone that although he may be like Marmite, repelling as many as he attracts, he is still more popular than any other politician bar Boris. Guido hopes that if next week the Electoral Commission designates Vote Leave rather than the GO/Leave.EU option,  all concerned will remember that Nigel is the least unpopular political leader in the country. Remember also that Farage – against the media’s expectations – bested Clegg in their head-to-head TV debate.  Nigel should be deployed where he can be most effective. 

At the 1922 Committee meeting this week David Cameron told his backbenchers that they should be telling voters that it was the Conservative Party that gave the people a referendum. In truth it was Nigel Farage who forced the Prime Minister to concede this referendum. Nigel deserves his place in British history for this alone and hopefully for more than that after June 23…

Osborne’s Post-Budget Poll Plunge

Osborne dissatisfaction March

Yet more evidence of decline – the Chancellor’s personal ratings plunge with Ipsos Mori, the Budget gets its worst rating since 2010. He’s now less popular than he was after the Omnishambles Budget. The Osborne effect is so toxic that Corbyn’s satisfaction score even overtakes Cameron’s…

Just 8% Say Osborne Up to Job of PM

Osborne’s worst poll ratings since the Omnishambles Budget of 2012 from YouGov in today’s Times. Even Tory voters say he’s not up to the job of PM…

Osborne’s Ratings Crash to 2013 Levels

The declining trend of the Chancellor’s fortunes is illustrated again by YouGov today – Osborne’s personal ratings as worse than any time since 2013. Just 23% think he’s doing a good job, while twice as many think he’s doing badly. In 2015 Osborne managed to reverse public perceptions and secure a positive rating. Voters have reverted to their first impression…

Leave Ahead in New ORB Poll

Taking account people’s likelihood to vote, OBR finds Leave has a 7 point lead on Remain. Sir Lynton Crosby tells the Telegraph Project Fear isn’t working…

ICM Poll Has Tories and Labour Level

guido poll

The latest ‘gold standard’ ICM poll has the Tories and Labour level on 36% each. For the first time since Corbyn’s election the two parties are neck and neck. Corbyn surge!

ConHome Poll: Buy Boris, Sell Osborne

Boris is well out in front in the latest ConHome Tory leadership survey, taking a 13 point lead on his closest rival. Second and third place go to Gove and Fox, two of the most vocal Eurosceptics, while Osborne slumps to fourth place on a dire 11%. According to this snapshot May and Saj are out of it. The Leavers are on the up, the Remainers are on the slide. Boris’ gamble looks to be paying off…

Boris Ahead of Osborne with Association Chairmen and Members

Yesterday the Telegraph polled 50 Tory association heads about their choice for next leader. Of those who’ve made up their minds, Boris is backed by 46% and Osborne 31%. Today’s Times has a Yougov poll of 1005 Tory members, Boris is on 43%, well ahead of Osborne on 22%. Again, May and Sajid have slipped well of the pace after choosing to back Remain. Boris is almost twice as popular as George with members, No. 10 is slowly slipping away from the Chancellor…

Tory Grassroots Poll: Boris Beats Osborne, Remainers Sink

If it’s a straight fight between Boris and Osborne on the Tory leadership ballot paper there is only one winner. The Telegraph have polled the heads of 50 Conservative associations and Boris is the preferred choice, though almost half are undecided.[…] Read the rest

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