Zac Has 27 Point Lead With Standard/BMG

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A BMG survey for the Evening Standard suggests Richmond Park isn’t as close as the bookies suggest…

Poll Puts Nuttall Way Ahead

runners-riders-latest

Forget the spin, Nuttall is going to win according to polling of councillors by Matthew Goodwin. His support is greater than all the other declared candidates combined. Despite Raheem running a characteristically energetic and noisy campaign he is in a distant third place…leader-ukip-poll

Kassam is optimistic about his noisy online campaign’s reach and the rhetorical backing of Arron Banks turning into financial, and more importantly, organising muscle. There is a call centre owned by Banks in Bristol that could be used to his advantage. Assuming the ever fluid rules of the NEC don’t prohibit its use…

UPDATE: Taking a leaf out of Trump’s playbook, Raheem is questioning the sample size of the poll and whining that the media is lying, despite linking to the source, where it clearly says “we surveyed nearly 150 Ukip local councillors and 91 replied”. That is a representative survey of 1 in 5 of UKIP’s councillors nationally…

Early Election Prospects

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Theresa May’s poll ratings are stratospheric compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers. YouGov’s latest opinion poll has Corbyn on a net approval rating of -40. May is on +31. That means Corbyn is -71 behind the Prime Minister. Guido can’t recall a bigger margin this century.

Downing Street briefs openly and privately that there will be no early election – despite an 18% lead with Ipsos Mori – yet the nagging doubt remains. What could be the catalyst for a change of attitude is losing the Brexit court case being pursued by die-hard Remainers. This constitutional conundrum could be solved by winning a mandate, possibly even a mandate to negotiate without publicly revealing the details of the government’s negotiating strategy. This may prove very tempting to Theresa May with the small majority she owes to Cameron.

According to the latest projection, based on the old boundaries, May would gain a 40-seat majority and unstoppable momentum for Brexit. It seems likely that if the Remainiacs win their court battle, they will lose the war…

Tories Lead By 18 Points

ipsos

Theresa May’s Miliband-esque economics and ‘Kippy immigration rhetoric cleans up Labour and UKIP votes…

Tories Lead By 17 Points

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The joint highest ever Tory lead recorded by ICM, who have been doing these polls since 1992. Even the Greens are surging…

Voters Back Naming & Shaming

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This will not please Labour MPs – most of their voters back the government’s plans to force companies to report how many foreign workers they employ. In fact 59% of the population is in favour, even LibDem voters are in favour. This is the backlash from the years of uncontrolled immigration…

Progressive Majority Update

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The noisy progressives in our public life are forever claiming there is a “progressive majority” in Britain. More evidence from YouGov today that they are wrong. The progressive majority is a delusion

Tories Lead by 14 Points

CON LEAD

The Tories’ lead over Labour is holding strong, as a gold standard survey from ICM for the Guardian reveals a 14 point gap between the parties. When these figures are plugged into Electoral Calculus’s seat calculator, they project a Conservative majority of 367 seats, next to Labour’s 195 – a drop of 35. A messy leadership contest next to May’s continuing honeymoon means this gap could grow…

Corbyn Leads Smith By 24 Points

POLL

Corbyn is beating Smith by 62% to 38% with YouGov, a lead of 24 points.

Labour leadership breakdown-01 (540x270)

Incidentally #Traingate encouraged people planning to vote for Jezza, 18% said the events had given them a more positive view of the leader, compared to just 5% who said it had given them a more negative view.

He’s on course for a bigger mandate than last time round. Jez we can…

Labour MPs Love Theresa May As Well

THERESA MAY MOST IMPRESSIVE MPS

It’s not just Labour’s former advisers who like Theresa May – their MPs think she’s impressive too. Theresa May was deemed “most impressive parliamentarian” by no less than 35% of Labour MPs, putting her second on the leadership table only to be beaten by Cameron in an Ipsos MORI poll of members. While May was deemed impressive by more ministers, the ex-cabinet ministers sitting bitterly on the backbenches put Dave ahead in the overall stakes by just 1% – to 26%.

Labour’s strongest contender was unsurprisingly Hilary Benn, coming joint sixth with 6%, but was beaten to a top five place by Angus Robertson. Labour MPs went mostly unloved, with Tom Watson and Dan Jarvis gaining the support of just one MP each (possibly themselves?). One Conservative joker backed Corbyn for the title. If Labour MPs like May so much, why don’t they just…

#TrainGate: Labour Voters Trust Corbyn

CORBYN TRAINGATE YOUGOV

Labour voters showed their trust in Corbyn in a recent YouGov poll on TrainGate. 39% of current Labour voters believe Corbyn’s version of events – that there were no unreserved seats available – compared to 34% believing Virgin’s story. 44% think Corbyn was being dishonest but only 36% of Labour voters think that his dishonesty matters. On the stump supporters argue the attack by offshore privateer Branson helps Corbyn with activists…

4% of Jewish Labour Movement Backs Corbyn

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Jezza’s “Zionist” problem…

Dave Most Popular PM Since Maggie

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Until the referendum at least Cameron was the Tories’ best electoral asset and that is still reflected in his polling numbers – YouGov finds he is the most popular PM since Maggie. Blair remains Labour’s most/only successful PM in recent memory. Gordon languishes in last, just 9% describe him as “good“. The former Prime Mentalist’s score with Labour voters is almost the same as Dave’s, Brown has a 19% favourable rating compared to Cameron’s 15%. Lady T still streets ahead of everyone…

Voters Don’t Regret Brexit

POLL

Given the coverage from parts of the Remainstream media over the last few weeks, they’d have you believe millions of Leave voters were having buyers’ remorse and now regret voting for Brexit. A new poll out from YouGov quashes that theory – the Leave vote is still ahead. Someone should tell Oily Smith and David Lammy they would lose a second referendum…

Hillary Leads By 7 Points, Melania Trump Girl-on-Girl

Melania

There are two major stories stateside today: Hillary Clinton has taken a 7 point lead in the polls and nude photos have emerged of Melania Trump in some racy girl-on-girl action. Hillary leads 46-39 in a new CBS national poll, a convention bounce after she was tied with the Donald last week. Meanwhile the NY Post has dug out some pics of a young Melania in bed with a Scandinavian model, published by a French lads’ mag in 1995. And now you’re up to date.

Theresa May Smiling as Tory Polls Improving

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When run through Election Polling’s UK swingometer, ICM’s figures today show that Labour is facing down the barrel of May’s gun next election. If these numbers become a uniform swing, the Tories are likely to take 41 seats from Labour and two from the LibDems, with a further surprise win in SNP held Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. In all, the Tories have gained nine points since ICM’s last pre-referendum poll. Meanwhile, Labour are set to lose 43 seats. They’d even lose a seat to the Lib Dems in Cambridge…

Trump 5% Ahead of Clinton

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As Hillary Clinton prepares to woo America at the Democratic Convention, Trump is 5% ahead in a CNN national poll and on a state-by-state forecast basis according to Nate Silver.

This is the picture now. Hillary has the advantage that most of the press and broadcast networks will be for her and despite boos at the convention from Bernie supporters – after he sold out and backed her – she will get 90% of her party’s activist support. Something is changing though and Trump’s cultural conservatism and protectionist “America First” positioning is appealing to blue collar Democrats. Left-wing activist Michael Moore reckons Trump is going to win because he connects with Americans in a way cold, calculating, “made in DC” Hillary never will. Trump has surprised all the pundits so far…

Corbyn Miles Ahead, Eagle and Smith Crash and Burn

Jeremy Corbyn is more popular than ever with Labour members and is set to comfortably retain the leadership, while Angela Eagle and particularly Owen Smith have crashed and burned, according to a new YouGov poll. 54% of Labour members eligible to vote say Jez will be their first preference, way ahead of nearest challenger Eagle, who is second on 21%. Smith, who Tom Watson and the ‘old Right’ Labour establishment want as the sole candidate, has bombed with the membership. A pitiful 15% would back him. In a one v one run-off Corbyn would beat either candidate by over 20 points. If you were Angela or Owen looking at these numbers, would you even want to be on the ballot?

Labour Voters Agree Corbyn Would be “A Good Prime Minister”

eagle corbyn stats

Topline figures from Ipsos MORI’s July political monitor might have made gloomy reading for Corbyn supporters. When asked whether or not they agree that Corbyn has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, only 23% agreed, with 68% disagreeing, 6% impartial, and 3% “Don’t Know” (Eagle scored 21%, 40%, 15%, and 24% respectively).

However, when this is broken down into just Labour voters, the picture changes dramatically. 47% of Labour voters agree Jez has what it takes to be a good PM – compared to just 30% for Angela Eagle. In total, net 3% of Labour voters agreed with the question for Corbyn, compared to -7% for Eagle. These are voters – not members – and therefore could represent Labour’s core more accurately than internal membership polls. Though the distinction is irrelevant – both Labour members and voters clearly back Corbyn…

Without Boris, May Public’s Most Favoured Tory Leader

Fav-Rates

A new poll by Survation on behalf of the Constitutional Research Council tells you why people were calling Theresa May “Prime Minister” last night at the Spectator’s summer party. A poll of the general public has May as the only one with a significant positive favourability rating – Boris would have been the other.[…] Read the rest

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Tory MP Nick Boles says what everyone thinks…

“There is a timidity and lack of ambition about Mrs May’s Government which means it constantly disappoints. Time to raise your game, Prime Minister.”

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