Labour on 24% With YouGov

The Tories have a 16 point lead in the latest YouGov poll. UKIP are only ten points behind Labour.

CON: 40% (-)

LAB: 24% (-2)

UKIP: 14% (+2)

LD: 11% (-)

GREEN: 4% (-)

When do they bottom out?

Latest Poll: May 68 Points Ahead of Corbyn

Opinium last night published net approval ratings which make disastrous reading for Jeremy Corbyn. In short, May destroys Jez on every measure of confidence and likeability. The net figures are above: on the raw numbers just 14% think Corbyn is a strong leader and just 16% think he would make a capable Prime Minister. This poll was taken during a difficult weekend for May where she was receiving a drubbing in the press over the Trump state visit. There is a 68 point spread between them on who makes a capable PM. Even on a bad day, May looks unbeatable...

Leave.EU Say Nuttall Ahead in Stoke

Take it with a bucket of salt but Leave.EU – the pro-UKIP Arron Banks group – has carried out a poll putting Nuttall ahead in Stoke. They say they have “a sample bigger than 4,000” with the following results:

UKIP: 39%

Labour: 33%

Tory: 11%

LibDem: 10%

Constituency polling is notoriously difficult…

Labour Leave: Select Brexiteer to Hold Stoke

Labour Leave has a poll out this morning giving Paul Nuttall a 10% point lead in Stoke, on 35% to Labour’s 25%. It is being downplayed by psephologists as something of a voodoo poll due to its tiny sample size of 182 (the seat has an electorate of 62,000). The headline numbers should probably be taken with a pinch of salt, though the fieldwork does throw up one interesting titbit: “If Labour select a ‘staunch’ Brexiteer as their candidate then the numbers change completely”. The survey finds that if Labour has a Brexiteer as their candidate, the numbers then show them winning by 13 points, on 43% to UKIP’s 30%. Makes sense that Labour will fare better in Stoke with a Brexiteer than with a Remainer, will they heed this advice?

16 Point Tory Lead With ICM

Corbyn relaunch latest: Labour down two points from two weeks ago with ICM, Tory lead extends to 16 points.

Conservatives: 42% (nc)

Labour: 26% (-2)

Ukip: 13% (+1)

Lib Dems: 10% (+1)

Greens: 5% (+1)

Save Jez time…

Tories Lead Labour in North

YouGov’s headline figure of a 42% – 25% Tory lead over Labour in this morning’s is bad enough for Corbyn. Even worse is the Tory lead in the North and among working class voters. Perhaps Jez will say the polls are rigged too…

Older People Want Burqa Ban

By 50% to 38% YouGov finds that Britons want a burqa ban. Last week Morocco became the latest country to take steps, the government banned the sale, production and import of the burqa, giving retailers 48 hours to destroy their stocks. Could it happen in the UK?

Drill down in the numbers and it turns out that there is only majority support for a burqa ban from over 50s. More than 70% of over 65s support a ban… 

France has made covering the face in public a punishable offence – with the support of many Muslim scholars and imams who say it is not required under sharia. Despite legal challenges the European Court of Human Rights upheld the legality of the law in 2014. Elsewhere in Europe Norway’s parliament has voted to ban the burqa, Belgium and Bulgaria have already passed banning legislation. Regions in Italy and Switzerland have also banned the burqa. Personally Guido thinks it unfortunate if a woman feels obliged or culturally pressured to wear a burqa. However in a free society it is not the role of the state to dictate what citizens can and cannot wear – the Taliban ban women from wearing mini-skirts…

Poll: Majority Now Distrust UK NGOs

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The release of Edelman’s annual “Trust barometer” is particularly well-timed given Oxfam’s attack on philanthropists this morning. The survey of 33,000 respondents in 28 countries has found that trust in NGOs in Britain has plummeted by four points compared to last year. This means more than half of those polled now actively distrust British NGOs. We talk about a crisis in polling and economic forecasting, today’s Oxfam report shows why the credibility of NGOs is falling off a cliff as well…

Corbyn’s Unpopulism: Maximum Income Law Not Supported By Public

There’s an argument that Corbyn’s maximum wage law is an example of left-wing populism, that the public will quite like the idea of wages being limited for the rich. The polls show otherwise: when YouGov asked about public support for a maximum wage cap of £1 million per year in September 2015, 44% opposed and just 39% supported the policy. Turns out people don’t like the idea of the state deciding how much you can earn…

Tories Lead By 17 Points

Guido is getting a little worried that Labour is bottoming too soon for a proper general election wipe-out. Tories up three points with YouGov, Labour down two, 17 points behind…

Two-Thirds of Union Members Think Corbyn Doing Badly

two-thirds-union

This is pretty devastating for Corbyn. Lefties believe that “the workers united can nver be defeated”, well this says they are heading for total defeat. Before brainless Momentum supporters say we can’t trust the pollsters, well YouGov called the Labour leadership elections spot on, twice. Bring on the early election…

‘Shy’ Tories Actually Just Busy, Labour Voters Home More

It is often said half-teasingly that canvassers and pollsters are more likely to meet Labour voters than Tories because Tory voters are still at work. Now there is empirical evidence for the claim. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the only pollster with his reputation intact after he called the 2015 election, says there is no such thing as “shy” Tories skewing polls, they are just “busy“. Curtice’s study found that if polls were based on people who answered the door on a first visit, Labour would be six points ahead. If polls were based on those who needed three to six visits before answering, the Tories had an 11 point lead. His conclusion: Labour voters were more likely to be at home rather than out at work.

“Conservatives are just simply more difficult to get hold of. There is an availability bias. People who you can get hold of first time round, who say, ‘oh yes come in’ are disproportionately Labour voters. The people you can easily get hold of are not representative.”

As the old joke goes, the Tory voters really were still at work…

Polling Died in the Margin of Error

polling-rip

Pollsters called the British general election wrong, they called Brexit very wrong and now they have got the US election wrong. Apologists for polling can talk about margin’s of error, probabilities and the difficulties of reaching the disaffected parts of the population. They can cling to irrelevant popular vote share qualifications. The fact is the industry has failed to call the right result, a hat-trick of fail.

With all their PhDs, data models and 99% confidence levels they missed it – again. This will of course give heart to Corbynistas who dont believe their hero has a double digit deficit against the Tories. Madame Le Pen will be measuring up the curtains for the Élysée Palace and no one will be paying much attention to pollsters prognostications. Gut instinct is back in fashion…

Zac Has 27 Point Lead With Standard/BMG

zac

A BMG survey for the Evening Standard suggests Richmond Park isn’t as close as the bookies suggest…

Poll Puts Nuttall Way Ahead

runners-riders-latest

Forget the spin, Nuttall is going to win according to polling of councillors by Matthew Goodwin. His support is greater than all the other declared candidates combined. Despite Raheem running a characteristically energetic and noisy campaign he is in a distant third place…leader-ukip-poll

Kassam is optimistic about his noisy online campaign’s reach and the rhetorical backing of Arron Banks turning into financial, and more importantly, organising muscle. There is a call centre owned by Banks in Bristol that could be used to his advantage. Assuming the ever fluid rules of the NEC don’t prohibit its use…

UPDATE: Taking a leaf out of Trump’s playbook, Raheem is questioning the sample size of the poll and whining that the media is lying, despite linking to the source, where it clearly says “we surveyed nearly 150 Ukip local councillors and 91 replied”. That is a representative survey of 1 in 5 of UKIP’s councillors nationally…

Early Election Prospects

seats-october-1

Theresa May’s poll ratings are stratospheric compared to Jeremy Corbyn’s numbers. YouGov’s latest opinion poll has Corbyn on a net approval rating of -40. May is on +31. That means Corbyn is -71 behind the Prime Minister. Guido can’t recall a bigger margin this century.

Downing Street briefs openly and privately that there will be no early election – despite an 18% lead with Ipsos Mori – yet the nagging doubt remains. What could be the catalyst for a change of attitude is losing the Brexit court case being pursued by die-hard Remainers. This constitutional conundrum could be solved by winning a mandate, possibly even a mandate to negotiate without publicly revealing the details of the government’s negotiating strategy. This may prove very tempting to Theresa May with the small majority she owes to Cameron.

According to the latest projection, based on the old boundaries, May would gain a 40-seat majority and unstoppable momentum for Brexit. It seems likely that if the Remainiacs win their court battle, they will lose the war…

Tories Lead By 18 Points

ipsos

Theresa May’s Miliband-esque economics and ‘Kippy immigration rhetoric cleans up Labour and UKIP votes…

Tories Lead By 17 Points

poll

The joint highest ever Tory lead recorded by ICM, who have been doing these polls since 1992. Even the Greens are surging…

Voters Back Naming & Shaming

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This will not please Labour MPs – most of their voters back the government’s plans to force companies to report how many foreign workers they employ. In fact 59% of the population is in favour, even LibDem voters are in favour. This is the backlash from the years of uncontrolled immigration…

Progressive Majority Update

burka

The noisy progressives in our public life are forever claiming there is a “progressive majority” in Britain. More evidence from YouGov today that they are wrong. The progressive majority is a delusion[…] Read the rest

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