Clear Majority of Labour Members Still Support Corbyn

Peston had a poll this morning showing Corbyn’s support among Labour members has declined compared with last year. He still has a clear majority of members backing him – on these numbers Jez would comfortably win any leadership election…

May’s Clean Sweep

According to the latest YouGov poll, Theresa May is ahead of Jeremy Corbyn with all the following groups:

All voters: May 49% – 15% Corbyn
Leave voters: May: 71% – 8% Corbyn
Remain voters: May 35% – 24% Corbyn
Tory voters: May 95% – 0% Corbyn
UKIP voters: May 66% – 4% Corbyn
LibDem voters: May 30% – 15% Corbyn
2015 Tory voters: May 85% – 3% Corbyn
2015 UKIP voters: May 70% – 7% Corbyn
2015 LibDem voters: May 41% – 12% Corbyn
Men: May 53% – 14% Corbyn
Women: May 46% – 15% Corbyn
18-24 year-olds: May 31 – 23% Corbyn
25-49 year-olds: May 39% – 18% Corbyn
50-64 year-olds: May 58% – 12% Corbyn
65+ voters: May 70% – 6% Corbyn
ABC1 voters: May 52% – 14% Corbyn
C2DE voters: May 46% – 15% Corbyn
London voters: May 41% – 18% Corbyn
Rest of Southern voters: May 55% – 12% Corbyn
Midlands / Welsh voters: May 55% – 12% Corbyn
Northern voters: May 46% – 18% Corbyn
Scottish voters: May 39% – 17% Corbyn

Corbyn is ahead only with Labour voters, and only by 53% to 11%. As close to a clean sweep as a Tory Prime Minister is ever going to get…

H/T Polling Digest

Who Are You? Labour’s Unknown Leadership Hopefuls

If tomorrow Corbyn has led his party to a by-election double disaster, speculation will turn to who will replace him. Since all those new £3 members will want another left-winger rather than a Blair-era tarnished figure, YouGov have taken a look at the hopefuls. They found that voters have never heard of them…

To be fair Guido had never heard of Rebecca Long-Bailey until a merciless Brillo took her apart, she is apparently the great next hope of the Corbynistas and known to just 5% of the public. The truth is only politicians who have been around for a decade or two are known by more than half the public. Even Tom Watson is known to just a third of voters…

For the moderates Dan Jarvis (11%) and Sir Keir Starmer (19%) just about manage to get double digit recognition. The ambitious Sadiq Khan (74%) has the highest name recognition…

More Britons Want to Sack Bercow Than Back Him

This afternoon’s ICM poll is also hugely damning for John Bercow. More Britons think he should resign than think he should stay:

Bercow should stay as speaker because he is doing a good job: 30%

Bercow should resign or be removed as speaker because he’s not impartial: 32%

Don’t know: 38%

Previous Speakers would look at such numbers and fall on their sword…

Tories 18 Points Ahead With ICM

The Tories have an 18 (eighteen) point lead with ICM this afternoon:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 26% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (+1)
LDs: 8% (-2)
GREEN: 4% (no change)

This will come to a head for Corbyn if he loses both by-elections on Thursday…

68% Want Government to Get On With Brexit

A new ICM poll for Change Britain confirms Tony Blair’s delusion. 68% of voters want the government to “get on with implementing the result of the referendum”, compared to just 15% who disagree. Even more Remain voters (42%) agree with the statement than disagree (33%). When this question was last polled in December, 26% of Remainers wanted the government to get on with the job compared to 40% who disagreed. The Blairite / Open Britain talk of Leave voters changing their minds is fantasy – it is Remainers who are changing their minds and now want the government to deliver Brexit…

UPDATE: Dominic Raab says:

“These figures show how out of touch Tony Blair is with the mood of the country. Far from wanting to reverse the referendum, the overwhelming majority want the result respected and for politicians to get on with making a success of Brexit.”

Corbyn Doing Worse Than Foot

Dreadful numbers out this lunchtime for Jezza: Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor shows his satisfaction rating is just 24%. Dissatisfaction in Corbyn now runs at 62%, making him the most unsatisfactory opposition leader since Michael Foot in 1982. How would Rebecca Long-Bailey or Clive Lewis look on that list?

This chart will wipe yesterday’s unfortunate grimace from the Prime Minister’s face: despite wobbles over Trump, Theresa May’s honeymoon continues and she is more popular than Cameron at the seven month stage of her premiership. It’s still early doors on Brexit…

On net satisfaction Theresa May is on +17, and Jeremy Corbyn is on -38. Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI, said:

“The historical contrasts look good for Theresa May, but much more alarming for Jeremy Corbyn. The Prime Minister is enjoying a better honeymoon at this stage then her two immediate predecessors, David Cameron and Gordon Brown. However, Mr Corbyn’s ratings as a Labour opposition leader almost 18 months in are closer to Michael Foot’s.”

Corbyn is under-performing Foot by 6%. In 1983 Foot saw the Tories win 397 seats, could Labour under Corbyn see the Tories win 400+ seats?

Labour on 24% With YouGov

The Tories have a 16 point lead in the latest YouGov poll. UKIP are only ten points behind Labour.

CON: 40% (-)

LAB: 24% (-2)

UKIP: 14% (+2)

LD: 11% (-)

GREEN: 4% (-)

When do they bottom out?

Latest Poll: May 68 Points Ahead of Corbyn

Opinium last night published net approval ratings which make disastrous reading for Jeremy Corbyn. In short, May destroys Jez on every measure of confidence and likeability. The net figures are above: on the raw numbers just 14% think Corbyn is a strong leader and just 16% think he would make a capable Prime Minister. This poll was taken during a difficult weekend for May where she was receiving a drubbing in the press over the Trump state visit. There is a 68 point spread between them on who makes a capable PM. Even on a bad day, May looks unbeatable...

Leave.EU Say Nuttall Ahead in Stoke

Take it with a bucket of salt but Leave.EU – the pro-UKIP Arron Banks group – has carried out a poll putting Nuttall ahead in Stoke. They say they have “a sample bigger than 4,000” with the following results:

UKIP: 39%

Labour: 33%

Tory: 11%

LibDem: 10%

Constituency polling is notoriously difficult…

Labour Leave: Select Brexiteer to Hold Stoke

Labour Leave has a poll out this morning giving Paul Nuttall a 10% point lead in Stoke, on 35% to Labour’s 25%. It is being downplayed by psephologists as something of a voodoo poll due to its tiny sample size of 182 (the seat has an electorate of 62,000). The headline numbers should probably be taken with a pinch of salt, though the fieldwork does throw up one interesting titbit: “If Labour select a ‘staunch’ Brexiteer as their candidate then the numbers change completely”. The survey finds that if Labour has a Brexiteer as their candidate, the numbers then show them winning by 13 points, on 43% to UKIP’s 30%. Makes sense that Labour will fare better in Stoke with a Brexiteer than with a Remainer, will they heed this advice?

16 Point Tory Lead With ICM

Corbyn relaunch latest: Labour down two points from two weeks ago with ICM, Tory lead extends to 16 points.

Conservatives: 42% (nc)

Labour: 26% (-2)

Ukip: 13% (+1)

Lib Dems: 10% (+1)

Greens: 5% (+1)

Save Jez time…

Tories Lead Labour in North

YouGov’s headline figure of a 42% – 25% Tory lead over Labour in this morning’s is bad enough for Corbyn. Even worse is the Tory lead in the North and among working class voters. Perhaps Jez will say the polls are rigged too…

Older People Want Burqa Ban

By 50% to 38% YouGov finds that Britons want a burqa ban. Last week Morocco became the latest country to take steps, the government banned the sale, production and import of the burqa, giving retailers 48 hours to destroy their stocks. Could it happen in the UK?

Drill down in the numbers and it turns out that there is only majority support for a burqa ban from over 50s. More than 70% of over 65s support a ban… 

France has made covering the face in public a punishable offence – with the support of many Muslim scholars and imams who say it is not required under sharia. Despite legal challenges the European Court of Human Rights upheld the legality of the law in 2014. Elsewhere in Europe Norway’s parliament has voted to ban the burqa, Belgium and Bulgaria have already passed banning legislation. Regions in Italy and Switzerland have also banned the burqa. Personally Guido thinks it unfortunate if a woman feels obliged or culturally pressured to wear a burqa. However in a free society it is not the role of the state to dictate what citizens can and cannot wear – the Taliban ban women from wearing mini-skirts…

Poll: Majority Now Distrust UK NGOs

Click to enlarge

The release of Edelman’s annual “Trust barometer” is particularly well-timed given Oxfam’s attack on philanthropists this morning. The survey of 33,000 respondents in 28 countries has found that trust in NGOs in Britain has plummeted by four points compared to last year. This means more than half of those polled now actively distrust British NGOs. We talk about a crisis in polling and economic forecasting, today’s Oxfam report shows why the credibility of NGOs is falling off a cliff as well…

Corbyn’s Unpopulism: Maximum Income Law Not Supported By Public

There’s an argument that Corbyn’s maximum wage law is an example of left-wing populism, that the public will quite like the idea of wages being limited for the rich. The polls show otherwise: when YouGov asked about public support for a maximum wage cap of £1 million per year in September 2015, 44% opposed and just 39% supported the policy. Turns out people don’t like the idea of the state deciding how much you can earn…

Tories Lead By 17 Points

Guido is getting a little worried that Labour is bottoming too soon for a proper general election wipe-out. Tories up three points with YouGov, Labour down two, 17 points behind…

Two-Thirds of Union Members Think Corbyn Doing Badly

two-thirds-union

This is pretty devastating for Corbyn. Lefties believe that “the workers united can nver be defeated”, well this says they are heading for total defeat. Before brainless Momentum supporters say we can’t trust the pollsters, well YouGov called the Labour leadership elections spot on, twice. Bring on the early election…

‘Shy’ Tories Actually Just Busy, Labour Voters Home More

It is often said half-teasingly that canvassers and pollsters are more likely to meet Labour voters than Tories because Tory voters are still at work. Now there is empirical evidence for the claim. Professor John Curtice, perhaps the only pollster with his reputation intact after he called the 2015 election, says there is no such thing as “shy” Tories skewing polls, they are just “busy“. Curtice’s study found that if polls were based on people who answered the door on a first visit, Labour would be six points ahead. If polls were based on those who needed three to six visits before answering, the Tories had an 11 point lead. His conclusion: Labour voters were more likely to be at home rather than out at work.

“Conservatives are just simply more difficult to get hold of. There is an availability bias. People who you can get hold of first time round, who say, ‘oh yes come in’ are disproportionately Labour voters. The people you can easily get hold of are not representative.”

As the old joke goes, the Tory voters really were still at work…

Polling Died in the Margin of Error

polling-rip

Pollsters called the British general election wrong, they called Brexit very wrong and now they have got the US election wrong. Apologists for polling can talk about margin’s of error, probabilities and the difficulties of reaching the disaffected parts of the population.[…] Read the rest

+ READ MORE +



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Quote of the Day

Tory MP Nick Boles says what everyone thinks…

“There is a timidity and lack of ambition about Mrs May’s Government which means it constantly disappoints. Time to raise your game, Prime Minister.”

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