Corbyn’s Foreign Policy Populism is Popular

These are the weighted results from YouGov’s survey of 7,134 adults today. 53% agree with Corbyn what involvement in foreign wars are partly responsible for terror attacks in Britain. 24% agree with the Tories that they are not. The thing about populism – and opposing foreign interventions is a populist policy used by politicians on right and left – is it can be popular…

Pound Down as Corbyn Gets Closer

This morning’s YouGov/Times poll (Con 43% vs Lab 38%) has knocked the pound, which fell against all of its 16 major peers this morning. Sterling has touched $1.2858 today, a two week low. Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank told Bloomberg:

“Sterling correlates well with anything that shows a Tory majority and vice versa, so if you’ve got this situation where the majority closes right down, it may come to a critical level where it may not have a sufficient number of seats in the house. The market doesn’t like that.”

City jitters…

Tory Lead Down 19 Points During Campaign

The Tories had a 24 point lead over Labour with YouGov at the beginning of the election campaign. Now that lead is just 5 points. A swing which would translate to a Tory majority of just two…

Meanwhile the Tory lead is down 10 points with TNS:

These polls were carried out before Corbyn blamed the West for terrorism, and of course tighter polls mean a focusing of voters’ minds. Still squeaky bum time in CCHQ, May’s post-election party authority up for grabs…

Tory Lead Slashed By 6 Points With ICM

The trend of the declining Tory lead continues with gold standard pollster ICM this afternoon:

CON: 47% (down 1)

LAB: 33% (up 5)

LIBDEMS: 9% (down 1)

UKIP: 4% (down 2)

GREENS: 2% (down 1)

CON lead: 14 points (down 6)

Still a very healthy lead and the consolation for the Tories is narrowing polls should focus the minds of the voters and increase Tory turnout…

UPDATE: And in Wales last month’s Tory lead has disappeared, Labour back ahead:

May Manifesto Bombs

Tory lead slashed with two pollsters following the manifestos:

YouGov / Sunday Times

CON: 44% (-5)

LAB: 35% (+4)

LIBDEM: 9% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-)

Survation / Mail on Sunday

CON: 46% (-2)

LAB: 34% (+4)

LIBDEM: 8% (-)

UKIP: 3% (-1)

Dementia tax proving unpopular. Though this election’s wobble weekend still sees the Tories comfortably ahead by 9 and 12 points…

Labour Surge 8 Points to 34%

Boost for Jez in today’s new Ipsos Mori poll:

CON: 49% (-)

LAB: 34% (+8)

LIBDEM: 7% (-7)

GREEN: 3% (+2)

UKIP: 2% (-2)

Complete LibDem and UKIP collapse, Labour slightly closing the gap…

Tories Lead By Record 22 Points With ICM

CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-1)

Courtesy of Britain Elects (via @ICMResearch / 05 – 07 May)

Only 15% Can Recall “Strong & Stable”

YouGov has discovered that only 15% of voters can recall the “Strong and stable” slogan. Lynton Crosby will not be happy until a majority of voters can recall the reason for voting Tory.

UKIP’s slump continues, they are now polling consistently behind the LibDems and at half the level they did in 2015. Guido can’t recall the UKIP slogan…

Public Backs Farron’s Right to Say Gay Sex Is a Sin

Tim Farron will no doubt be hugely grateful to ComRes and the Christian Institute for this new poll of 1,001 Britons today:

If a politician believes that gay sex is a sin they should be free to express it: 64%

If a politician believes that gay sex is a sin they should not be free to express it: 32%

Encouraging that the British public seems to overwhelming back free speech. What about smelling spaniels

Tory Lead 23 Points, UKIP on 4%

New IpsosMORI poll:

Con 49 (+6), Lab 26 (-4), LD 13 (nc), UKIP 4 (down 2).

That’s the biggest Conservative lead since September 2008. Theresa May also has the best “most capable” leadership score ever, better than Blair or Thatcher.

“Some 61% chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.

“Three-times election winner Baroness Thatcher never came close – her best score was 48% which she first hit in May 1983 on the eve of a landslide triumph against Michael Foot.

“Labour’s most successful election winner Tony Blair touched 52% in May 2001, just before he crushed William Hague in the general election.”

Looks like the end for UKIP…

Clive Lewis Slammed by Pollsters ICM for Spreading Fake News

Clive Lewis has been slammed by pollsters ICM for spreading a fake news graphic showing a purported Labour lead in his Norwich South constituency. After realising the research firm’s name had been appended to the graph which shows Labour on 36% and the Tories on 28%, ICM’s Martin Boon slapped Lewis down in public:

Arguably Lewis has fallen foul of Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 in claiming false polling results for other candidates. Under the Act it’s an illegal practice to make a false statement about a rival candidate “for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at the election”. Lewis is yet to withdraw the tweet…

Tories 10 Points Ahead in Wales

In Wales.

Tories on 50%

Coalition of the Others Still Trails Tories

For all the talk of a “coalition of the others” (or “coalition of chaos” © T. May) it is still the case that adding the national vote share of Labour, the LibDems and the Greens gives 45%, 3% behind the Tories on 48% – according to last night’s YouGov survey giving the Tories a whopping 24% lead. Guido’s question is will Jeremy Corbyn do worse than Michael Foot in 1983?

ICM Snap Poll Gives Tories 21 Point Lead

The lead up three points from this morning’s ICM poll…

LibDems on the March

Though these are only local council by-elections it is worth looking at how the LibDems have surged over the last few weeks. Their unashamed opposition to Brexit is gaining massive swings from blue to yellow in Remain-voting Tory areas, while Labour’s capitulation is even seeing them pick up seats in the North. Britain Elects polling average currently has the LibDems on 10%, up from around 6.5% this time last year.

Leaked polling by Lynton Crosby claims the Tories would lose up to 30 seats to the LibDems if there was an election now (note: this is likely to have been briefed out by the Tories). Tim Farron’s media operation is strong, he is in the papers every day either bashing Brexit or Corbyn. It is a sensible strategy – 48% of the country voted to Remain and around 15% want to obstruct Brexit. Both those numbers are higher than anything the LibDems have managed since the Coalition…

Nuttall Polling Better Than Corbyn in London

Guido stresses this poll is of London only. Save Jez…

Tories Lead By 12 Points Among 18-24 Year-Olds

The Tories have extended their overall lead to 19 points – they are now the furthest ahead with ICM than at any time since the 2015 general election. And that’s after the NICs debacle… 

Conservatives: 45% (up 1 from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

UKIP: 10% (down 1)

LibDems: 9% (up 1)

Greens: 4% (down 1)

Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)

UKIP just claw back into double digits. Stunningly, the Tory lead now extends to 12 points among 18-24 year-olds. Martin Boon, director of ICM said:

“It’s so desperate for Labour that it’s also nearly a ‘full house’ across standard demographics. Only members of non-white communities offer up a Labour lead over the Tories, with DEs tied. When 18-24s split 41% vs 29% for the Conservatives, Labour can only be in some sort of historic mess.”

And Labour are putting it around that they are “on an election footing”?

UKIP Down Into Fourth on Single Figures

The LibDems are loving Brexit – every day Tim Farron delights in launching stinging attacks on Jeremy Corbyn as he seeks to clean up the Labour Remain vote with his unashamed Remoaning. UKIP meanwhile slip into fourth place for the first time in years, Britain Elects reports it is the first time they have been in single figures with YouGov since early 2013. Fight back starting? Or Brexit happening…

Tories Lead By 19 Points

A shambolic Budget attacking strivers, a major Tory rebellion on the cards and sniping between Number 10 and Number 11… and yet the complete non-existence of any opposition from Labour means the Tories extend their lead with YouGov to 19 points.[…] Read the rest

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Angela Rayner on Labour’s economic policy (via Speccie):

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