Only 15% Can Recall “Strong & Stable”

YouGov has discovered that only 15% of voters can recall the “Strong and stable” slogan. Lynton Crosby will not be happy until a majority of voters can recall the reason for voting Tory.

UKIP’s slump continues, they are now polling consistently behind the LibDems and at half the level they did in 2015. Guido can’t recall the UKIP slogan…

Public Backs Farron’s Right to Say Gay Sex Is a Sin

Tim Farron will no doubt be hugely grateful to ComRes and the Christian Institute for this new poll of 1,001 Britons today:

If a politician believes that gay sex is a sin they should be free to express it: 64%

If a politician believes that gay sex is a sin they should not be free to express it: 32%

Encouraging that the British public seems to overwhelming back free speech. What about smelling spaniels

Tory Lead 23 Points, UKIP on 4%

New IpsosMORI poll:

Con 49 (+6), Lab 26 (-4), LD 13 (nc), UKIP 4 (down 2).

That’s the biggest Conservative lead since September 2008. Theresa May also has the best “most capable” leadership score ever, better than Blair or Thatcher.

“Some 61% chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.

“Three-times election winner Baroness Thatcher never came close – her best score was 48% which she first hit in May 1983 on the eve of a landslide triumph against Michael Foot.

“Labour’s most successful election winner Tony Blair touched 52% in May 2001, just before he crushed William Hague in the general election.”

Looks like the end for UKIP…

Clive Lewis Slammed by Pollsters ICM for Spreading Fake News

Clive Lewis has been slammed by pollsters ICM for spreading a fake news graphic showing a purported Labour lead in his Norwich South constituency. After realising the research firm’s name had been appended to the graph which shows Labour on 36% and the Tories on 28%, ICM’s Martin Boon slapped Lewis down in public:

Arguably Lewis has fallen foul of Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 in claiming false polling results for other candidates. Under the Act it’s an illegal practice to make a false statement about a rival candidate “for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at the election”. Lewis is yet to withdraw the tweet…

Tories 10 Points Ahead in Wales

In Wales.

Tories on 50%

Coalition of the Others Still Trails Tories

For all the talk of a “coalition of the others” (or “coalition of chaos” © T. May) it is still the case that adding the national vote share of Labour, the LibDems and the Greens gives 45%, 3% behind the Tories on 48% – according to last night’s YouGov survey giving the Tories a whopping 24% lead. Guido’s question is will Jeremy Corbyn do worse than Michael Foot in 1983?

ICM Snap Poll Gives Tories 21 Point Lead

The lead up three points from this morning’s ICM poll…

LibDems on the March

Though these are only local council by-elections it is worth looking at how the LibDems have surged over the last few weeks. Their unashamed opposition to Brexit is gaining massive swings from blue to yellow in Remain-voting Tory areas, while Labour’s capitulation is even seeing them pick up seats in the North. Britain Elects polling average currently has the LibDems on 10%, up from around 6.5% this time last year.

Leaked polling by Lynton Crosby claims the Tories would lose up to 30 seats to the LibDems if there was an election now (note: this is likely to have been briefed out by the Tories). Tim Farron’s media operation is strong, he is in the papers every day either bashing Brexit or Corbyn. It is a sensible strategy – 48% of the country voted to Remain and around 15% want to obstruct Brexit. Both those numbers are higher than anything the LibDems have managed since the Coalition…

Nuttall Polling Better Than Corbyn in London

Guido stresses this poll is of London only. Save Jez…

Tories Lead By 12 Points Among 18-24 Year-Olds

The Tories have extended their overall lead to 19 points – they are now the furthest ahead with ICM than at any time since the 2015 general election. And that’s after the NICs debacle… 

Conservatives: 45% (up 1 from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

UKIP: 10% (down 1)

LibDems: 9% (up 1)

Greens: 4% (down 1)

Conservative lead: 19 points (up 3)

UKIP just claw back into double digits. Stunningly, the Tory lead now extends to 12 points among 18-24 year-olds. Martin Boon, director of ICM said:

“It’s so desperate for Labour that it’s also nearly a ‘full house’ across standard demographics. Only members of non-white communities offer up a Labour lead over the Tories, with DEs tied. When 18-24s split 41% vs 29% for the Conservatives, Labour can only be in some sort of historic mess.”

And Labour are putting it around that they are “on an election footing”?

UKIP Down Into Fourth on Single Figures

The LibDems are loving Brexit – every day Tim Farron delights in launching stinging attacks on Jeremy Corbyn as he seeks to clean up the Labour Remain vote with his unashamed Remoaning. UKIP meanwhile slip into fourth place for the first time in years, Britain Elects reports it is the first time they have been in single figures with YouGov since early 2013. Fight back starting? Or Brexit happening…

Tories Lead By 19 Points

A shambolic Budget attacking strivers, a major Tory rebellion on the cards and sniping between Number 10 and Number 11… and yet the complete non-existence of any opposition from Labour means the Tories extend their lead with YouGov to 19 points. Nineteen. On course for the big 20…

Clear Majority of Labour Members Still Support Corbyn

Peston had a poll this morning showing Corbyn’s support among Labour members has declined compared with last year. He still has a clear majority of members backing him – on these numbers Jez would comfortably win any leadership election…

May’s Clean Sweep

According to the latest YouGov poll, Theresa May is ahead of Jeremy Corbyn with all the following groups:

All voters: May 49% – 15% Corbyn
Leave voters: May: 71% – 8% Corbyn
Remain voters: May 35% – 24% Corbyn
Tory voters: May 95% – 0% Corbyn
UKIP voters: May 66% – 4% Corbyn
LibDem voters: May 30% – 15% Corbyn
2015 Tory voters: May 85% – 3% Corbyn
2015 UKIP voters: May 70% – 7% Corbyn
2015 LibDem voters: May 41% – 12% Corbyn
Men: May 53% – 14% Corbyn
Women: May 46% – 15% Corbyn
18-24 year-olds: May 31 – 23% Corbyn
25-49 year-olds: May 39% – 18% Corbyn
50-64 year-olds: May 58% – 12% Corbyn
65+ voters: May 70% – 6% Corbyn
ABC1 voters: May 52% – 14% Corbyn
C2DE voters: May 46% – 15% Corbyn
London voters: May 41% – 18% Corbyn
Rest of Southern voters: May 55% – 12% Corbyn
Midlands / Welsh voters: May 55% – 12% Corbyn
Northern voters: May 46% – 18% Corbyn
Scottish voters: May 39% – 17% Corbyn

Corbyn is ahead only with Labour voters, and only by 53% to 11%. As close to a clean sweep as a Tory Prime Minister is ever going to get…

H/T Polling Digest

Who Are You? Labour’s Unknown Leadership Hopefuls

If tomorrow Corbyn has led his party to a by-election double disaster, speculation will turn to who will replace him. Since all those new £3 members will want another left-winger rather than a Blair-era tarnished figure, YouGov have taken a look at the hopefuls. They found that voters have never heard of them…

To be fair Guido had never heard of Rebecca Long-Bailey until a merciless Brillo took her apart, she is apparently the great next hope of the Corbynistas and known to just 5% of the public. The truth is only politicians who have been around for a decade or two are known by more than half the public. Even Tom Watson is known to just a third of voters…

For the moderates Dan Jarvis (11%) and Sir Keir Starmer (19%) just about manage to get double digit recognition. The ambitious Sadiq Khan (74%) has the highest name recognition…

More Britons Want to Sack Bercow Than Back Him

This afternoon’s ICM poll is also hugely damning for John Bercow. More Britons think he should resign than think he should stay:

Bercow should stay as speaker because he is doing a good job: 30%

Bercow should resign or be removed as speaker because he’s not impartial: 32%

Don’t know: 38%

Previous Speakers would look at such numbers and fall on their sword…

Tories 18 Points Ahead With ICM

The Tories have an 18 (eighteen) point lead with ICM this afternoon:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 26% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (+1)
LDs: 8% (-2)
GREEN: 4% (no change)

This will come to a head for Corbyn if he loses both by-elections on Thursday…

68% Want Government to Get On With Brexit

A new ICM poll for Change Britain confirms Tony Blair’s delusion. 68% of voters want the government to “get on with implementing the result of the referendum”, compared to just 15% who disagree. Even more Remain voters (42%) agree with the statement than disagree (33%). When this question was last polled in December, 26% of Remainers wanted the government to get on with the job compared to 40% who disagreed. The Blairite / Open Britain talk of Leave voters changing their minds is fantasy – it is Remainers who are changing their minds and now want the government to deliver Brexit…

UPDATE: Dominic Raab says:

“These figures show how out of touch Tony Blair is with the mood of the country. Far from wanting to reverse the referendum, the overwhelming majority want the result respected and for politicians to get on with making a success of Brexit.”

Corbyn Doing Worse Than Foot

Dreadful numbers out this lunchtime for Jezza: Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor shows his satisfaction rating is just 24%. Dissatisfaction in Corbyn now runs at 62%, making him the most unsatisfactory opposition leader since Michael Foot in 1982. How would Rebecca Long-Bailey or Clive Lewis look on that list?[…] Read the rest

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