Survey Says…

Ipsos-MORI-graphic

According to an Ipsos Mori poll the Guido Fawkes Blog is the publication most read by MPs either online or in print. In case you were wondering it wasn’t commissioned by our advertising representatives MessageSpace. According to the research no other blog, political news website or newspaper is read by more MPs than Guido. We’re immensely proud, though not too surprised.

We don’t tend to do many interviews, waffling wordy comment pieces or publish rehashed press releases.  We get political stories quicker than most of our rivals, we’re more fun and we combine hard news with tittle-tattle, high brow and low brow into a hopefully compelling product. It is a formula that has seen us consistently top reader satisfaction surveys for a decade. From the Prime Minister down to A-Level politics students, we know that staying in touch with what our readers want is why we’re #1. You’re either in front of Guido, or you’re behind…

Continuity Clegg: Winning Here Graph

The Clegg fans over LibDemVoice have launched a delayed rebuttal operation, releasing a poll showing 54% of 992 members want him to stay and 39% want him to stand down. Always one for statistical excellence, Guido brings you the findings in a format LibDem HQ would be proud of:

Nothing to worry about…

UPDATE: Vince has broken cover slam Oakeshott for commissioning the ICM poll. He calls it inexcusable.

Pollsters’ Final Euro-Election Calls


euros-final-call

Two pollsters, Populus and ICM, called it for Labour the rest called it for UKIP. As far as Guido can tell IPSOS-Mori did not do a Euro-poll saying it was “too close to call”. We shall find out who was right and who was most accurate after tonight. You can still – at time of going to pixel – get a 20% return betting on UKIP to win or quintuple your money on Labour. Good luck…

N.B. Any pollster who feels misrepresented (they are sensitive types) should get in touch and we will correct the chart.

Final Polls Put UKIP in First

Sun/YouGov:

UKIP: 27%

Lab: 26%

Con: 22%

Green: 10%

LD: 9%

Mail/Opinium:

UKIP: 32%

Lab: 25%

Con: 21%

Green: 6%

LD: 6%

They’re predicting an earthquake…

YouGov: Public Rate Only Nigel Farage Positively

yougov approval ratings

YouGov’s fieldwork was done on Thursday and Friday, so only partially covering the recent furore. Even so Nigel is way ahead of the other political leaders in terms of public approval. That is why they are all ganging up on him…

 

Round-Up of Differing ComRes & ICM Poll Results


ComRes
UKIP 35% (+1), Labour 24%, Con 20% (-2), Green 7% (+2), LibDem 6% (-2)

ICM
Labour 29% (-1), Con 26% (+4), UKIP 25% (-2) LibDem 7%

survey-round-up

This graph from Simon Lock captures the latest polls in an easy to understand format.

The Balls Offensive

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With Ed Balls dissing Douglas Alexander on LBC last night, this morning his wife Yvette Cooper has launched another broadside against the embattled election coordinator. As Guido reported earlier in the week, Alexander is under attack internally from the likes of Michael Dugher for not “taking the fight to UKIP”, and today that row has spilled over to the pages of the Mirror:

“Like their plans for NHS charges or millionaire tax cuts, UKIP’s Thatcherite policies are worse than David Cameron’s. Pulling out of Europe won’t help. That risks jobs. Better to get EU reforms – including better controls when countries join.

We mustn’t ignore UKIP … nor must we imitate them – we are challenging all the other parties because they have no answers to help working people.”

Finally it appears at least one faction in Labour has noticed the party ahead of them in the EU polling rather than being obsessed by the one languishing in last place. Looks a lot like a coordinated Balls camp shift…

Tories Beat UKIP to First Place in Guardian/ICM Euros Poll

Tonight’s Guardian/ICM poll has the Tories in first place for the Euros on 27%, ahead of UKIP on 26%. Labour drop to third on 24%. In their state of the parties poll the Tories are also in first, this time two points clear of Labour, on 33% and 31% respectively. Things get even worse for Miliband in the leadership poll, he has a worse approval rating than Clegg:

UKIP will say this is an outlier for the Euros, though Labour will struggle for an excuse given the Ashcroft polling earlier. If it rings true it is devastating for both parties…

Tories Take Lead in Ashcroft Telephone Polling

The Tories have pulled ahead in a national poll for the first time in two years. The Ashcroft/ConHome telephone poll will cheer CCHQ, though it’s a slender lead. Ashcroft says:

“one thing I should point out is that the Tory lead is somewhat more slender than it looks: if one fewer interviewee had named the Conservatives the party’s score would have been rounded down to 33 per cent rather than up to 34 per cent, and the lead would be down to one point.”

The psychological impact is far more important than the details though. 

YouGov: LibDems Now Behind Greens in Fifth Place


eu--yougov-poll

Among those who tell YouGov that they are certain to vote the LibDems are in fifth place.

Euro-wipeout for the most europhile party…

UKIP 11% Clear Among Those Certain to Vote

UKIP are up 8 points on the beginning of April according to this Euro election poll by ITV/ComRes, now 11 points clear of Labour among those certain to vote. The Tories are down 4 points on just 18%. UKIP’s support is entrenched and growing…

UKIP Stealing 1 in 5 2010 Labour Voters

Labour are getting spooked by the rise of Red UKIP. Ed’s British guru Lord Glasman used his interview with the Sunday Times to warn middle-class metropolitan Miliband that he is haemorrhaging working class votes to Farage:

“This is a long-term trend since 2001, in terms of the working-class vote just declining quite dramatically. The Labour middle-class vote held up [in 2010]. It was the working-class vote that died. These are often people who are earning, who have jobs, but they don’t see Labour as representing their interests. There was possibly an assumption at first that [the rise of Ukip] would just work against the Tories. But there is a view that says that after the European and local elections are over, there could be a swing back to the Conservatives of Ukip voters. But will there be necessarily a swing back to Labour from the Ukip voters?”

Do the numbers back him up? 

YouGov’s poll this weekend found that almost one in five of Labour’s 2010 voters said they would be voting UKIP on May 22. One in ten Labour 2010 voters said they would vote UKIP in 2015. That said UKIP is still hurting the Tories and LibDems far more. Just 46% of Tory 2010 voters are sticking with Dave for the Euros. The same number have defected to UKIP…

UKIP Winning Despite Media Attacks

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

euro-yougov-april-14

YouGov UKIP 31% CON 19%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 9% 

Despite the BBC-led commentariat throwing the kitchen sink at Farage, UKIP are ahead nationally.

Papers don’t like to back losers, expect the commentariat to fracture soon…

Public Says UKIP Posters Aren’t Racist Agree With Farage That They Reflect Reality

YouGov’s polling is conclusive: the public does not agree the UKIP posters are racist, offensive or ignorant, with 57% saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality. More support them than oppose them.

Also worth noting that 61% of 2010 Tory voters support the posters, with 68% of 2010 Tories saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality.

Goes to show what the out of touch Oxbridge-educated metropolitan establishment elite know…

POLL: UKIP on 27% for Euro Elections

This morning’s Sun/YouGov poll has UKIP on 27% for next month’s Euros, just three points off Labour. The Tories are well down in third place on 22% and the LibDems are on 10%. As you can see by clicking the tabs on our interactive graph, the only redeeming news for Dave is that voting intentions for 2015 see much of that UKIP support in the Euros come home to the Tories. Faced with Miliband in No. 10, the Tories are on 34%, three points behind Labour on 37%. UKIP are on 12% for the general election, with the LibDems again on 10%. The poll was carried out on Monday and Tuesday this week – the ‘Tory establishment stooge’ attacks haven’t made any difference to voters…

Coetzee Polling Presentation Reality Check

The Times has got hold of some polling slides presented by Nick Clegg’s taxpayer-funded strategist Ryan Coetzee, which give the LibDem leader suspiciously sky high approval ratings:

coetzee-slide-2-500x376

Compare Coetzee’s polling with that of independent companies however and the result is quite different. Back in October Ipsos Mori had 57% of the public saying they were dissatisfied with Clegg. In June they had his net approval rating at -37. YouGov meanwhile said he was the least popular party leader since Michael Foot.

Ed gets clapped by his brainwashed staff. Nick gets fantasy data. And Dave is surrounded by tits

UPDATE: Stephen Tall says he thinks this poll data is of “switchers” in target marginal seats. It still doesn’t explain why these people give a some 20% higher approval rating to Clegg than YouGov attributes to actual LibDem voters. Given these were produced by a civil servant, Coetzee, and the LibDem defence is that it is entirely legitimate and compatible with his role as a civil servant, we’ve FoI’d the presentation. Smells wrong…

Even Labour MPs See Falling Unemployment, Economy Growing

comres-expectations

As the economy grows, Labour’s poll lead disappears…

UPDATE:  Note the 4% of Tories who think unemployment and economic growth are going to get worse are more pessimistic than their LibDem colleagues.

 

Latest Polls Have New Highs for UKIP Miliband Win Worse for Tories Than Farage Win

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

ComRes CON 29% (-3), LAB 35% (=), LDEM 7% (-2), UKIP 20% (+4)

Opinium CON 30% (-2), LAB 36% (+3), LDEM 7% (-3), UKIP 18% (+3)

Ipsos MORI CON 31%( -1), LAB 37% (+2), LDEM 9% (-4), UKIP 15% (+4)

The trend is clear, since the Nick ‘n Nige Euro Debate UKIP have gained at the expense largely of the LibDems and to a lesser extent the Tories. Clegg’s gamble on solidifying the pro-EU vote behind him has been a double-barrelled shot to his own foot. He came off worse and his mis-judgement has cost his party dearly. Guido hears LibDem loyalists now talking of them losing all their MEP’s seats…

Labour are 6% ahead in current polls, though this may not result in them winning the most seats at the Euro elections because when it comes to certainty to vote, UKIP voters are more motivated. CCHQ is dreading a UKIP victory at the polls sending their backbenchers into headless chicken mode. This chart shows why they should fear Labour winning more than UKIP winning:

ukip-source-voters

If Labour get beaten by UKIP in May the pressure on Ed will explode and the divisions in his party will come out into the open. Whereas if Labour wins Ed will have the wind behind him for the general election. UKIP voters are more likely to return to the Tories when it comes to a general election choice between Miliband and Cameron, therefore it will be a far worse portent for the Tories if Labour rather than UKIP wins in May.

Osborne’s Strict Discipline Leaves You Satisfied

As the Times reported on its front page today and Guido pointed out at the time, Osborne had the most obvious motive to want Maria Miller out. Today’s Evening Standard poll taken at the height of the Miller scandal shows Osborne does have still a strong approval rating and as a No. 11 source notes, the Miller distraction was “highly annoying”. Let’s see if that lasts when the cuts actually start…

The Standard / Ipsos Mori poll also has Farage as the only leader with a positive net satisfaction rate. That LibDem spin that the debates were good for Clegg unravels too, he is down 4% since last month…

Two Thirds Say Standards Committee Should Be Abolished

69% of the public agree with Guido that MPs should not be allowed to sit on the committee that judges whether politicians are guilty of fiddling their expenses, according to a Survation poll for Breitbart London. 47% say Maria Miller makes them less likely to vote Tory in 2015, 55% say Dave has handled it badly and the same number say Miller is the worst expenses cheat since 2009.[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

Tory MP Nick Boles says what everyone thinks…

“There is a timidity and lack of ambition about Mrs May’s Government which means it constantly disappoints. Time to raise your game, Prime Minister.”

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