Dave Less Popular Than Tories For First Time

One of Dave’s best defences against leadership chatter has been the line that he is personally more popular than the Tory party as a whole. Worryingly for him, for the first time that is no longer the case. This Lord Ashcroft poll is pretty bad for the PM:

Paging Adam Afriyie…

EU Poll Split Down Middle

A big poll for Sky News and Survation this morning. Their EU referendum poll is split down the middle with the No vote just shading it. Interestingly the majority say they won’t change their mind, 96% say they either won’t change their mind or that there is just a small chance of them changing their minds. Meaning the 5% up for grabs (2.5% margin of error) will swing it either way. What’s the betting most of them are wavering Yes voters…

Balls Abandons Universality to Save His Job

Ed Balls has finally blinked, tearing up the party’s previously unbreakable commitment to universal benefits, alienating the Labour left and cynically conceding to the centre ground. He announced today that Labour would cut winter fuel payments to the rich, something Miliband has previously defended as “a bedrock of our society”. Channelling Osborne, Balls will say:

“In tough economic times we have to make difficult choices about priorities for public spending and what the right balance is between universal and targeted support. So at a time when the public services that pensioners and others rely on are under strain, it can no longer be a priority to continue paying the winter fuel allowance to the wealthiest pensioners.”

This is of almost no financial significance, it is however hugely significant politically. Abandoning such a historically fundamental Labour policy reveals much of Balls’ fears for his own job. He knows that if he cannot improve flat-lining public confidence in his competency by next year Miliband has a decision to make. This LabourList/Survation poll is why Balls knows being fired could easily become a reality:

ed-kinnockIn the Sun today Trevor Kavanagh says Miliband is the new Kinnock. This is a comparison Guido has made in the past, not least to Ed himself, that he would go the same way as Labour’s 1992 leader. It makes sense for Miliband and Balls to change track two years before the election rather than leave it any later and risk their credibility sinking even lower. They have two years to get the party, then the people, on board…

INFOGRAPHIC: Ed v Gordon

Ouch, you can see why Andy Coulson in GQ describes Prime Minister Ed as “a fate worse than Gordon.”

Numbers via Times/YouGov.

Poll: UKIP Heading For 2014 Victory

David Ruffley has been bursting through his shirt to warn Dave he could face a leadership challenge if he doesn’t deal with UKIP in time for next year’s Euro elections, so these numbers won’t make for happy post-holiday reading for the PM. An OpenEurope/ComRes poll has UKIP topping the bill on 27% among those certain to vote in 2014, and still breaking the 20 point mark for the general election. The key number for Dave: two-fifths of Conservative voters from 2010 would vote UKIP in a European election if it were held tomorrow…

Voters Trash Clegg’s Failed Fairness Mantra

Clegg’s strategy in coalition has been to promote the LibDems as the party of fairness. Apparently with no sense of irony, he has attacked the Tories for failing to “adopt the politics of fairness”, told Martha Kearney he is the “voice of fairness” in government, and dreamt up that catchy-as-it-is-believable slogan “Building a fairer Britain”. Unfortunately for Nick, repeating something over and over doesn’t mean the public will believe him.

A YouGov poll out this morning finds only 6% think Clegg would be the most effective leader at making Britain a fairer place. Nearly double that, 11%, choose Nigel Farage as the fairest party leader. There’s bad news for Ed too, he comes second to Dave by 21% to 19%. Topping the poll is public apathy: 29% said no leader could deliver a fairer society. People might disagree about what fairness means, but nearly everyone agrees Clegg won’t deliver it…

Even Labour Supporters are Hardening on Hand Outs

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation have actually put out something interesting for a change. Over the last thirty years, Labour supporters’ attitudes to welfare have hardened considerably. In the late eighties 41% believed social injustice was the main cause of poverty, now that figure is just 27%. This can be explained in part by the number that blame laziness amongst those on benefits, up from 13% to 22%. 31% of Labour backers see welfare recipients as undeserving, compared to just 21% thirty years ago. The biggest jump: 46% now believe the welfare state encourages dependency, up from just 16% in 1987. You can see how attitudes have changed among Labour supporters by clicking on the interactive chart above. Ed may want to lead the party of welfare, but his voters are not with him.

UKIP’s Highest Ever Poll Rating

Talking of headaches for Dave, last night’s ICM/Guardian poll has UKIP on 18%, their highest ever rating and double their ICM rating for a month ago. Labour, the Tories and the LibDems all lost four points each, with Labour falling below Ed’s fabled 35% target. UKIP are up nine points. What was that about a referendum?

UKIP Hit Record High in YouGov Poll

UKIP at their highest ever poll rating for YouGov, Tories at their lowest this parliament. 25% of Tory 2010 voters are now backing UKIP. It isn’t as simple as 27+17 beats 38, but food for thought nonetheless…

Salmond Losing Fight For Freedom

SalmondThe uphill struggle in the fight for freedom for Scotland is getting steeper. This morning’s Ipsos Mori poll has just 31% of Scots saying yes to freedom, with 59% of Scots now saying they would vote to stay under the cruel yolk of English oppression. The battle will be long…

Voters Still Blame Labour For Economic Woes

Tory strategists could be forgiven for worrying that after three years of little or no growth and a £120 billion spending black hole this year alone, Dave and George’s reliance on blaming Britain’s economic slump on the last Labour government might be wearing thin with voters. Apparently not.

A study by media agency OMD of over 2,000 adults from across the UK has found that 53% still blame the previous Labour government for Britain’s ongoing economic problems, compared with just 39% blaming the coalition. 39% say Gordon is the main culprit, with just 27% fingering Cameron and 23% Osborne. Numbers Downing Street will be clinging onto…

Shock as ComRes Poll Puts UKIP on 22%

comres-locals-poll

If you took Guido’s advice yesterday morning you could have got evens on UKIP getting  50 seats. Guido got a bit greedy after lunch:

After last night’s poll those odds are now 10/1 on

Ipsos Mori v LabourList

For some reason Ipsos Mori haven’t taken kindly to a ‘Labour source’ telling LabourList’s Mark Ferguson that they “consistently brief highly selective data to create misleading impressions”. In a withering riposte on their website, they insist things really are that bad for Ed:

“Mr Ferguson’s complaint appears to be about Joe Murphy’s coverage of our questions about Ed Miliband in the Evening Standard. He states that “To read the report you’d think that the results were abnormally bad for Ed Miliband (as it happens, Cameron was far further behind Brown at this stage than Miliband is behind Cameron)”, and Joe Murphy himself reported that “A Labour source said David Cameron was further behind Gordon Brown at the same stage in the last Parliament.” But the results are, all, abnormally bad for Ed Miliband, and Cameron was not further behind Brown at the same stage in the last parliament… We therefore request that Mr Ferguson:

  • provides evidence for or corrects his assertion that Cameron was further behind Brown than Miliband is behind Cameron at this stage of the parliament;
  • makes it clear in his piece that the changes in satisfaction for both Cameron and Miliband since last month are not statistically significant.”

Fight…

Buried BBC Poll Results: 350,000 On Way to UK

“No indication of huge Romanian-Bulgarian influx”, is the BBC spin from their poll of potential migrants to the UK. The reassuring results show just 4.2% of Bulgarians and 1% of Romanians are making definite plans to come to Britain in 2013 or 2014. For some reason the Beeb haven’t mentioned how that translates into actual real numbers. 4.2% of 4.67 million working age Bulgarians equals 196,140, and 1% of 15.3 million working age Romanians equates to 153,000, making a pretty daunting total of 349,140. Not that you’d hear that number from the BBC themselves…

Are We All Thatcherites Now?

Not quite, but it seems Dave had a point. According to a YouGov poll on the day of the funeral, 52% support free market competition and back wealth creating profit makers, while 45% oppose regulation and stronger trade unions. Her legacy lives on…

Daily Politics Poll: Welfare a Soft Touch

The Daily Politics team went out onto the streets of Gravesend and Chatham to ask their thoughts on welfare. The results were pretty conclusive…

Thatcher Tops Best PM Poll

An interesting poll for number crunchers in today’s Sun, not least because Margaret Thatcher is named as Britain’s most popular post-war PM. Dave scored a grand total of zero percent, suffering the indignity of coming behind Alec Douglas-Home. Tony Blair won three elections for the Labour Party but only 21% of Labour supporters felt he was the best post-war PM. Also notable that only 18 percent of Tories went for Churchill compared to 25%, 28% and 36% of Labour, LibDem and UKIP supporters respectively. The winner is clear…

Those results in full.

Guardian Poll Finds 50%-34% Support For Thatcher

The Guardian are saying the results of their ICM poll are “divided”. In electoral terms, that would be called a landslide…

McBride Coughs Fishy Poll

The news that McBride’s book will upset Labour conference has caused a flutter today. Many of his old allies have popped up to help the re-branding exercise. No doubt they will be salivating at the prospect of the serialisation rights, hence why no one has noted that the deal will earn Mad Dog far more than the royalties he has pledged to give away. Looking back at his recent blogposts shows the level of detail we can expect about the Brown years; one thing stuck out about his latest musing though:

“As our internal polls used to tell us, there were a number of Tory leaders who could potentially have beaten Tony Blair in 2005, and Hague was arguably one of them.”

You have to wonder what a Civil Servant at the Treasury was doing having access to “internal polls” in 2005. What internal polls? Surely the Treasury were not polling this sort of information? A Labour source familiar with that particular period does not recall any Labour Party poll commissioned on the subject. Was this done by that famous impartial charity the Smith Institute? If not, who paid for it and was money declared? What else will Damian let out of the bag about doing Gordon’s leadership dirty work on the taxpayer? 

Poll: Public Support Spare Room Subsidy Reforms

Liam Byrne calls it a “hated tax”, Jim Murphy says the government should “listen” to the public. Most damning of all, Owen Jones warns of the disastrous electoral consequences of the government’s changes to the spare room subsidy:

“A warning to Number 10.

[…] Read the rest

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Quote of the Day

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, says….

“The UKIP vote is going to the Tories. That’s the story of the first week of the campaign.”

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