The Balls Offensive

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With Ed Balls dissing Douglas Alexander on LBC last night, this morning his wife Yvette Cooper has launched another broadside against the embattled election coordinator. As Guido reported earlier in the week, Alexander is under attack internally from the likes of Michael Dugher for not “taking the fight to UKIP”, and today that row has spilled over to the pages of the Mirror:

“Like their plans for NHS charges or millionaire tax cuts, UKIP’s Thatcherite policies are worse than David Cameron’s. Pulling out of Europe won’t help. That risks jobs. Better to get EU reforms – including better controls when countries join.

We mustn’t ignore UKIP … nor must we imitate them – we are challenging all the other parties because they have no answers to help working people.”

Finally it appears at least one faction in Labour has noticed the party ahead of them in the EU polling rather than being obsessed by the one languishing in last place. Looks a lot like a coordinated Balls camp shift…

Tories Beat UKIP to First Place in Guardian/ICM Euros Poll

Tonight’s Guardian/ICM poll has the Tories in first place for the Euros on 27%, ahead of UKIP on 26%. Labour drop to third on 24%. In their state of the parties poll the Tories are also in first, this time two points clear of Labour, on 33% and 31% respectively. Things get even worse for Miliband in the leadership poll, he has a worse approval rating than Clegg:

UKIP will say this is an outlier for the Euros, though Labour will struggle for an excuse given the Ashcroft polling earlier. If it rings true it is devastating for both parties…

Tories Take Lead in Ashcroft Telephone Polling

The Tories have pulled ahead in a national poll for the first time in two years. The Ashcroft/ConHome telephone poll will cheer CCHQ, though it’s a slender lead. Ashcroft says:

“one thing I should point out is that the Tory lead is somewhat more slender than it looks: if one fewer interviewee had named the Conservatives the party’s score would have been rounded down to 33 per cent rather than up to 34 per cent, and the lead would be down to one point.”

The psychological impact is far more important than the details though. 

YouGov: LibDems Now Behind Greens in Fifth Place


eu--yougov-poll

Among those who tell YouGov that they are certain to vote the LibDems are in fifth place.

Euro-wipeout for the most europhile party…

UKIP 11% Clear Among Those Certain to Vote

UKIP are up 8 points on the beginning of April according to this Euro election poll by ITV/ComRes, now 11 points clear of Labour among those certain to vote. The Tories are down 4 points on just 18%. UKIP’s support is entrenched and growing…

UKIP Stealing 1 in 5 2010 Labour Voters

Labour are getting spooked by the rise of Red UKIP. Ed’s British guru Lord Glasman used his interview with the Sunday Times to warn middle-class metropolitan Miliband that he is haemorrhaging working class votes to Farage:

“This is a long-term trend since 2001, in terms of the working-class vote just declining quite dramatically. The Labour middle-class vote held up [in 2010]. It was the working-class vote that died. These are often people who are earning, who have jobs, but they don’t see Labour as representing their interests. There was possibly an assumption at first that [the rise of Ukip] would just work against the Tories. But there is a view that says that after the European and local elections are over, there could be a swing back to the Conservatives of Ukip voters. But will there be necessarily a swing back to Labour from the Ukip voters?”

Do the numbers back him up? 

YouGov’s poll this weekend found that almost one in five of Labour’s 2010 voters said they would be voting UKIP on May 22. One in ten Labour 2010 voters said they would vote UKIP in 2015. That said UKIP is still hurting the Tories and LibDems far more. Just 46% of Tory 2010 voters are sticking with Dave for the Euros. The same number have defected to UKIP…

UKIP Winning Despite Media Attacks

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

euro-yougov-april-14

YouGov UKIP 31% CON 19%, LAB 28%, LIBDEM 9% 

Despite the BBC-led commentariat throwing the kitchen sink at Farage, UKIP are ahead nationally.

Papers don’t like to back losers, expect the commentariat to fracture soon…

Public Says UKIP Posters Aren’t Racist Agree With Farage That They Reflect Reality

YouGov’s polling is conclusive: the public does not agree the UKIP posters are racist, offensive or ignorant, with 57% saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality. More support them than oppose them.

Also worth noting that 61% of 2010 Tory voters support the posters, with 68% of 2010 Tories saying they are a hard hitting reflection of reality.

Goes to show what the out of touch Oxbridge-educated metropolitan establishment elite know…

POLL: UKIP on 27% for Euro Elections

This morning’s Sun/YouGov poll has UKIP on 27% for next month’s Euros, just three points off Labour. The Tories are well down in third place on 22% and the LibDems are on 10%. As you can see by clicking the tabs on our interactive graph, the only redeeming news for Dave is that voting intentions for 2015 see much of that UKIP support in the Euros come home to the Tories.[…] Read the rest

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Coetzee Polling Presentation Reality Check

The Times has got hold of some polling slides presented by Nick Clegg’s taxpayer-funded strategist Ryan Coetzee, which give the LibDem leader suspiciously sky high approval ratings:

coetzee-slide-2-500x376

Compare Coetzee’s polling with that of independent companies however and the result is quite different.[…] Read the rest

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Even Labour MPs See Falling Unemployment, Economy Growing

comres-expectations

As the economy grows, Labour’s poll lead disappears…

UPDATE:  Note the 4% of Tories who think unemployment and economic growth are going to get worse are more pessimistic than their LibDem colleagues.

 […] Read the rest

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Latest Polls Have New Highs for UKIP Miliband Win Worse for Tories Than Farage Win

BRITAINS-EURO-ELECTION-NEWS-SOURCE

ComRes CON 29% (-3), LAB 35% (=), LDEM 7% (-2), UKIP 20% (+4)

Opinium CON 30% (-2), LAB 36% (+3), LDEM 7% (-3), UKIP 18% (+3)

Ipsos MORI CON 31%( -1), LAB 37% (+2), LDEM 9% (-4), UKIP 15% (+4)

The trend is clear, since the Nick ‘n Nige Euro Debate UKIP have gained at the expense largely of the LibDems and to a lesser extent the Tories.[…] Read the rest

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Osborne’s Strict Discipline Leaves You Satisfied

As the Times reported on its front page today and Guido pointed out at the time, Osborne had the most obvious motive to want Maria Miller out. Today’s Evening Standard poll taken at the height of the Miller scandal shows Osborne does have still a strong approval rating and as a No.[…] Read the rest

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Two Thirds Say Standards Committee Should Be Abolished

69% of the public agree with Guido that MPs should not be allowed to sit on the committee that judges whether politicians are guilty of fiddling their expenses, according to a Survation poll for Breitbart London. 47% say Maria Miller makes them less likely to vote Tory in 2015, 55% say Dave has handled it badly and the same number say Miller is the worst expenses cheat since 2009.[…] Read the rest

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POLL RESULTS: Farage Wins

The Blurrt worm tells the whole story:

Click to enlarge.

Knockout…[…] Read the rest

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What the Public Thinks About Each Party Leader

Big exclusive polling by the Daily Politics today. Who do you most trust to manage the economy? Cameron/Osborne 58%, Miliband/Balls 42% – damning for Labour. A glimmer of hope for Ed that he is seen as less weird than Farage, but a very small silver lining.[…] Read the rest

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