A bad start to the week for Rishi, as an Ipsos poll reveals his net satisfaction rating has hit a new record low of -44, equalling Theresa May’s ratings shortly before she left office. Some good news for the PM, however, is that there’s no surge in support for Sir Keir Starmer either, with his net satisfaction rating coming to -22. Only 38% of people think Labour is ready for government, down from 43% in July.
Rishi won’t take much solace in Starmer’s ratings though, as Labour holds a 20-point lead, and nearly 86% of adults believe Britain needs “a fresh team of leaders” including 65% of Tory voters. This is 10% higher than in March 2010, when Gordon Brown’s government was in its final throes.
It is a truism that there are only two types of general election; “time for change” and “don’t let the other guys ruin it”. Can you guess which type the coming general election will be?
On Friday arch-remoaner Gina Miller decided that it would be a good idea to incorrectly profile a set of polls about the regrets that voters had about Brexit. Deciding to call out the majority of news outlets about their statistical analysis may not be the brightest idea…
Why have news outlets been saying all day that 70% of leavers would vote leave again.
— Gina Miller (@thatginamiller) June 23, 2023
It was based on Question Time Leave audience in Clacton, not proper polling. BBC audience was asked whether Brexit was the right thing to do:
70% still agreed
20% would vote differently
10%…
In her tweet she claimed that the polling which was widely quoted in the media last week was based off of the Question Time audience in Clacton. In reality the widely quoted polling was actually derived from polling conducted by UK In A Changing Europe and was in fact proper polling. Somebody’s upset they weren’t invited on to the Brexit Special panel…
Instead, she claimed that the “professional polling”, as commissioned by her own very serious and professional “True and Fair” party was a more accurate display of the state of “Bregret” that voters are facing. An ironic name for her political party, as her tweet was neither fair nor true…
New polling from YouGov in the Times shows that Tory voters still prefer Boris to Rishi, nearly a year on from Boris’s resignation. According to the data, while Rishi has a higher net approval rating with the general population – at minus 23 to Boris’s minus 39 – those who voted Tory in the 2019 general election still prefer blondes: with them Boris has a net approval of 14, while Rishi scores a net approval of 7. Nearly half of Tories (47%) still think Boris was a good Prime Minister, while 34% say the same of Sunak today…
This might explain why Rishi is skipping the Privileges Committee vote in the Commons today, rather than voting for it. He hasn’t got the political capital to aggravate Boris’s supporters any more than he already has.
Nadine Dorries has announced she’s standing down as MP for mid-Bedfordshire immediately:
“I have today informed the chief whip that I am standing down as the MP for Mid Bedfordshire, with immediate effect. It has been an honour to serve as the MP for such a wonderful constituency but it is now time for someone younger to take the reins.”
Looks like that peerage has been confirmed…
UPDATE: Four hours ago Nadine said she didn’t want to stand down:
Former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries tells Mike that she does not think she will be going into the House of Lords “any time soon”.
— TalkTV (@TalkTV) June 9, 2023
"No one has told me anything."@Iromg | @NadineDorries pic.twitter.com/k80ITM79Q4
UK Polling Report forecasts that it should be a hold for the Tories:
The Tories should be able to hold the seat, though who knows if Starmer and Davey will do a deal?
Whilst Westminster waits for the release of the report to determine Dominic Raab’s future, new polling from YouGov has highlighted another layer of the crisis facing the SNP. The party’s support in Holyrood is down 5% since March, they’re now on 38% to Labour’s 30%. It’s the lowest SNP vote share since the independence referendum in 2014.
Other findings from the poll don’t get much better for the SNP. Just 19% of Scottish voters say Humza is doing well, compared to 44% who say he’s faring badly. Neither the public as a whole, nor SNP voters, think Yousaf will live up to Sturgeon – and that doesn’t even seem to be a high bar: more voters want to see her suspended from the party than not. Meanwhile, independence support, at 46%, remains 8% behind the ‘No’ camp, on 54%. This is one set of numbers the SNP won’t find so easy to fiddle.
Closer to home, a new Techne poll has also been published today. It puts Labour on 44% to the Tories’ 31% – meaning Labour’s lead is down 2%, to 13%. It’s the pollster’s smallest Labour lead since the mini-budget.
New polling, released this morning by Techne, puts Labour on 45% to the Conservatives on 30%. This represents a Labour lead over the Conservatives of 15%. It’s the joint lowest margin recorded by the pollster since Sunak became Prime Minister.
Techne aren’t the only pollster reflecting this trend. Last week, Opinium recorded a Labour lead of just 11%, whilst on Monday, Redfield & Wilton reported a 14% margin – both of which are also the smallest since Sunak took over. Going by the polling average in February, a 14% Labour lead represents a drop of 8% in just two months.
As the “noisy” scatter graph from above UK Polling Report shows a narrowing lead for Labour trend has developed this month. Before Tory MPs get too excited, this is what it probably means in terms of seats:
All of this explains why Savanta polling director, Chris Hopkins, told the i that the days of 20 point Labour polling leads are “gone” and “If it gets much smaller I think possibly we start to get into hung parliament territory”. The SNP’s electoral collapse further complicates electoral calculations. Survation recently put the SNP’s lead over Labour at 5% – the smallest since the 2019 election. There’s still a long time to go until Autumn 2024…
