More in Common has been tracking Starmer’s net approval rating – it makes glum reading today for the PM. Starmer has suffered a rapid drop from his post-election high of 11 points in late July to -16 now. His lowest rating so far this year and almost a one point drop per day…
This approval rating is around the same level enjoyed by Sunak two months into his premiership. And Sunak didn’t have a landslide to buoy him…
Labour’s cronygate scandal appears to be cutting through: 53% think that Labour is “somewhat or very corrupt.” Reeves’ Winter Fuel Payment cut has 56% disapproval compared to 23% in favour. Starmer hasn’t got to the eye-popping -48 rating he scored in May 2021. There’s time yet…
New polling from YouGov today has Badenoch well in the lead among Tory members. She scores 24 points compared to Tom Tugendhat’s 16 in second place. Leadership teams are firing polls around like nobody’s business…
As co-conspirators can see, so far polling of members has varied wildly in its rankings and in granular results. It’s broadly the same situation with polling of GB voters. Often results will correspond with who has forked out the cash…
More established pollsters will come out with results over the proceeding seven weeks – if they are worth their salt results will begin coalescing before too long. Seeing as Guido’s predictions beat all of their swanky MRPs in the election, you shouldn’t hold your breath…
Techne have carried out polling of the public for the Tory leadership campaign. The pollster’s previous survey of Tory Party members had Cleverly ahead on 26% of party support followed by Priti on 20%. Now a 1003-person sample of GB adults from 2-12th August has similar results among voters. Team Cleverly getting its money’s worth…
Cleverly and Priti lead the public both in terms of a simple “I like” question and their first preference for next Tory leader. In head-to-heads Cleverly came out on top – the closest result was against Tugendhat at 19% to 14% in Cleverly’s favour. Over 60% say they don’t know or wouldn’t vote every time. Leg work to be done…
Hilariously the fictional candidate “Tom Evans” was in voters’ third preference more popular than over half of leadership contenders. He’s neck and neck with Mel Stride on first preference too. Some Tories may be brought back to earth with that one…
There will be long sessions of soul-searching in the offices of UK pollsters this morning as the Guido team’s highly scientific whiteboard-based prediction beat every single final MRP projection they put out. All but two constituencies are now decided. Ross Kempsell is officially the victor, beating the rest of the team and every single UK pollster’s final seat MRP prediction for accuracy…
Guido has crunched the numbers and found that an average of the team’s predictions is closer to the actual result than all of those expensive and overhyped MRP final seat forecasts. YouGov came closest to matching Guido’s gold standard…
If you don’t believe it, you can check the underlying data tables here. Variance is the difference between actual seats and the predictions – the lower, the better. Collectively we are what Dominic Cummings would describe as super-forecasters. Why hire the pollsters when you can just check Guido…
Focaldata have just released an MRP seat projection, and it’s wipeout for the Tories. Labour are predicted to win a whopping 450 seats, while the Tories are on just 110 – 255 fewer than they won in 2019. This would give Labour a majority of 250. Meanwhile, the LibDems are estimated to win 50 seats, and Reform 1. A decent proportion of the Tory wins are marginal, so it could be even worse on polling day. No wonder CCHQ are putting all their efforts in the ultra-safe seats…
Nigel Farage taking the reins of Reform Party would be catastrophic for the Tories, according to a survey from JL Partners for The Sun. If Mr. Brexit took over the party, four percentage points would be taken off both Labour and the Tories, leaving the Conservatives at a measly 21%. And Reform would clean up 16%….
Farage would also take 14% of those who don’t have a political home and were thinking of sitting polling day out. JL Partners director Scarlett Maguire said this would be a “knock out blow” for Rishi and an “extinction-level event for the Tories.” Over to you, Nigel…
