Attendees of centrist Tory think tank Onward’s under-35s series were served a bit more drama than they were expecting last night. As science minister Andrew Griffith was getting ready to talk about his brief and the “future of the science agenda” in a Westminster pub a climate protestor with an American accent sprung up and shouted about his “cosying up to the oil industry“. After about a minute of ranting the protestor was interrupted with: “We’ll do questions at the end” and was escorted out. Another then stood up to loud groans, started braying that Griffith “accepted lots of money from climate deniers”, and hit him with the killer line: “we don’t seem very scientific now do we“, before he too was ejected. Hilariously this sequence repeated itself another three times. Were there more protestors than attendees?

Eventually non-protestor attendees started singing the national anthem and the police were contacted regarding the trespassers. Guido notes Griffith has been diligently putting himself out there at youth-focussed Westminster events over the last few weeks. His fans say “Watch this space“. The field’s getting crowded…

SpAds across government are preparing for their next jobs – some are planning on staying closer to politics than others. Local Tories have spotted Will Tanner, the PM’s Deputy Chief of Staff and founder of centrist Tory think tank Onward, on visits to Tory functions in Essex, including recent association social events in Basildon and Billericay – majority 20,412 and held by standing down MP John Baron. Guido also notices an incognito Tanner popped up in the back of a group of Tory canvassers in Epping three days ago. He won’t thank Richard Holden for posting that one…

Tanner is joining the rest of the Onward crew in visiting safe(ish) seats. Deputy Director Adam Hawksbee has dropped into association meetings in Tory safe seat Solihull and is seen as a top contender there. Nick Timothy has already bagged the selection for Matt Hancock’s West Suffolk. Seb Payne has had no luck yet. Guido hears the crew have a gentleman’s agreement not to apply against one another…

While its staff look for seats Onward is quietly preparing a large-scale initiative with a six-figure price tag to push the Tory Party leftwards following a bruising election defeat. To have its generals in Parliament would aid that project…

You might think that while the ‘evil plotters’ plan moves to replace Sunak before the election, other Tory factions are resting on their laurels. No chance…

Guido hears Tory wet think tank Onward is quietly preparing a major polling and focus group project whose aim is to blame the Tories’ loss of the election on the right wing of the party and lay the groundwork for a leadership bid. That’s while their personnel gun for safe Tory seats this election…

Onward, founded by No 10’s Will Tanner, is reportedly set to hire pollster for the Remain campaign and Best for Britain James Kanagasooriam or Theresa May’s old pollster James Johnson to take up the project. With a six-figure price tag, the report will include extensive polling and focus groups – set to be published after an election defeat. Guido hears donors are being approached to fund the centrist putsch’s starting gun…

Onward doesn’t deny the plans: “As part of our Future Politics programme, we conduct regular opinion research and we’ll be doing the same again for the 2024 election, just as we did in 2019“. A senior Tory insider tells Guido: “There are real concerns about a plot to frame the post-election narrative and make sure a standard-bearer of the left is in pole position for the next leadership contest.” Sticking in the centre hasn’t worked so far for Rishi…

Another think tanker is moving into government. Deputy Director of the Tory centrist wet think tank Onward, Adam Hawksbee, has been appointed by Rishi Sunak as interim chairman of the “new high-powered Towns Unit to ensure the voices of UK towns are heard loud and clear across government and that vital regeneration comes to life“. A tsar for the suburbs…

A part-time position alongside working at Onward, the job is made up of delivering the £1.1 billion “Long-Term Plan for Towns” which aims to “regenerate 55 towns around the country so people can feel proud of the place they call home“. Will Tanner, Downing Street deputy chief of staff and founder of Onward, is clearly exercising some influence in government…

Wonk world has reacted to Hunt’s Autumn Statement, the general consensus from the free market think tanks being that there’s  a few positive announcements, though not enough to be excited about. Guido gives you the run down…

The Institute of Economic Affairs’ Mark Littlewood welcomes the NI cut and permanent full expensing, though cautions that there is far more work to be done to reduce the tax burden and decrease spending. He called the statement “a step in the right direction, not a leap”…

The Taxpayers’ Alliance called the statement a “mixed bag” of good and bad news. Chief executive John O’Connell said, “Cuts to taxes for businesses and workers will be warmly welcomed, but the fiscal drag of frozen thresholds means the UK is still on track for an even bigger tax burden by the end of this decade.” Not a huge cheer from the TPA…

The Growth Commission points out that “while the cut in National Insurance Contributions by 2 percentage points will add 0.6% to GDP per capita after 20 years, it needs to be borne in mind that the freezing of tax allowances had already cost 1.3% of GDP”. Co-chairman Douglas McWilliams says the measures “are falling short of getting us out of economic stagnation”.

The Centre for Policy Studies welcome the permanent full expensing, something they’ve been campaigning for for many years. However, they warn against the decision to maintain the triple lock which “prioritises older people at the expense of younger workers”. Robert Colvile, CPS Director, cautioned: “The economy, and our long-term growth prospects, are still far from where they need to be.” Still much work to be done…

The Adam Smith Institute‘s Maxwell Marlow says “there is much to be positive about this statement“, praising the announcement of “a number of pro-business measures”. Though he cautions that Hunt will still need to “plan for public spending restraint”. The invisible hand will do its work… 

The campaigners over at Stop the Taxi Tax say that Hunt’s pledge to consult on the 20% non-Black cab taxi VAT is “good news, but there’s no time to waste to stop this damaging tax“.

Director of Onward, Sebastian Payne welcomed the measures, saying, “Today’s Autumn Statement showed the best of moderate conservatism – combining bold measures to boost growth and slash taxes, with support for struggling workers and families.” Optimistic tone from the wets…

Douglas McWilliams, Co-Chairman of the Growth Commission says

“… there was little acknowledgement of just how high the public spending bill now is – and the impact such a large state has on the prospects for economic growth. My overall sense of this statement is that the Chancellor has taken a loaf of bread from the taxpayer and given us back a couple of slices.”

Not a full return to tax-cutting Tories…

Onward’s shuttle bus to Tory Conference has quite literally crashed on the motorway up to Manchester. Luckily, everyone is absolutely fine.

The team are back on the road in a recovery van, having written off their original vehicle, with Deputy Director Adam Hawksbee telling Guido they were “laughing through the rain” while waiting on the side of the road. The wettest think tank in Westminster certainly lives up to its reputation. This is what happens when you put Seb Payne in the driving seat of a think tank*…

*Payne was not actually behind the wheel…