Migration to UK Underestimated by ONS for Years

The record-breaking migration numbers seen by the UK before the Brexit vote has often been cited as a leading factor in the public’s decision to leave the EU, however the ONS have now realised they have been hugely underestimating migration numbers incorrectly for years. If the public had known in 2016, the Leave vote may have been even higher…

The ONS have recalculated net EU migration from 2015-16 to be 16% higher than previously thought (a 29,000 difference), with the incorrect methodology having been used by the statistics authority for over a decade. The ONS have further added to the embarrassment by saying there’s “significant uncertainty” about their estimations since the EU referendum too. Further lays waste to May’s ‘tens of thousands’ immigration pledge…

Government Borrowing Lowest It Has Been In 17 Years

New ONS figures released this morning reveal that borrowing in the current financial year was £23.1bn, £18bn less than a year before. Still no sign of that Leave vote-induced debt explosion…

Helping the good news was the fact that retail sales have risen unexpectedly strongly this month, showing consumer confidence remains high despite predictions from the experts. Now the UK’s total deficit isn’t far off our gross EU contribution…

Any deficit is a bad deficit, but adding just £23.1 billion to the national debt this year is a lot better than last year when we added £41.1 billion to it, and massively improved than the £103 billion deficit the UK faced in 2010. Guido will not be satisfied until the deficit is eliminated so the national debt can start to fall in real terms…

Two Years After Leave Vote: Unemployment at Lowest Level For 40 Years

Before the referendum, George Osborne’s Treasury published detailed propaganda analysis of the two years that would follow a Leave vote.

“This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow.

A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower”

Official ONS figures released today, two years after the vote to Leave, reveal that UK unemployment fell by 65,000 to 1.36 million in three months to June, taking it to the lowest level for more than 40 years. Wages are up by 2.7%, youth unemployment is at its lowest since records began, and productivity has seen its biggest rise since 2016. Oh, and 104,000 fewer people are on zero hours contracts as their main job. This officially-sanctioned lie from the government and civil service does not get enough attention.

3 Ways the ONS Says Snow Slowed Growth

Faisal Islam says linking the disappointing 0.1% growth figure to the bad weather is “laughable”. Guardian deputy editor Paul Johnson tweets: “ONS says weather nothing to do with it”. If you actually read the ONS release rather than the Remain spin, they confirm the snow did have a “limited” impact on slowing growth, in three separate ways, on retail trade, petrol sales and construction:

  • “some impacts on GDP from the snow in the first quarter of 2018 have been recorded for construction and retail sales”
  • “The fall in retail trade was driven by a decrease in petrol sales. This could be attributed to adverse weather conditions, which impacted on travel” 
  • “There is some evidence of an impact of the bad weather on construction output… 3.3% fall in construction was the largest downward pull on Q1”

The impact might have been limited overall, it’s just not accurate and snow joke for the Guardian to report “ONS says weather nothing to do with it”…

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Quote of the Day

Peter Mandelson tells Emma Barnett…

“I think that Jeremy Corbyn himself should search his conscience and ask himself whether he’s the best person to lead the Labour Party into the general election with the best chance of success for the party.”

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