December Monthly Borrowing Soars to Highest Since Records Began

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show public sector borrowing hit £27.4 billion in December, the highest December figure since records began thirty years ago. £16.7 billion higher than December 2021, and a whopping £21.1 billion more than December 2019, prior to the pandemic…

£17.3 billion of last month’s figure was spent on debt interest alone. That’s two-thirds of the total. For context, the total policing budget in England and Wales for the financial year ending March 2023 is just under £17 billion…

Good news, though: In the financial year-to-December 2022, public borrowing sat at £128.1 billion, £5.1 billion more than 2021… although £2.7 billion less than forecast by the geniuses at the OBR. Small mercies.

mdi-timer 24 January 2023 @ 08:55 24 Jan 2023 @ 08:55 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Inflation Hits 10.1% in 12 Months to July

CEBR analysis:

According to a data release from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, UK inflation stood at 10.1% in July, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). This marked an acceleration from June’s rate of 9.4% and the highest reading since that of 10.2% recorded in February 1982, over 40 years ago. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.6% in July, down from 0.8% in June and the lowest monthly change since January. Meanwhile, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) recorded 8.8% annual inflation in July, marking an uptick from 8.2% in June.

mdi-timer 17 August 2022 @ 07:33 17 Aug 2022 @ 07:33 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
UK Unemployment Rising, Real-Terms Pay Falls by Record Amount

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show unemployment ticked up by 0.1% in the three months to July, with job vacancies falling for the first time since August 2020. Real-term pay has fallen by 3% in real terms when adjusted for inflation in the same period. The biggest plunge since records began in 2001… 

The overall employment rate is now at 75.5% – also a fall of 0.1% since last quarter – although the ONS estimates the number of pay-rolled employees actually rose by 73,000 between June and July. A mixed bag overall, although with vacancies finally dropping, there are clearly signs the labour market is cooling…

mdi-timer 16 August 2022 @ 08:53 16 Aug 2022 @ 08:53 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Inflation Outpacing Wages by Biggest Margin in a Decade

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show real terms pay fell by 2.2% between February and April when adjusted for inflation, and even including bonuses it only rose by 0.4%. The fastest fall in ordinary pay since 2011… 

Job vacancies, meanwhile, have hit a record high of 1.3 million from March to May, with unemployment up slightly from last month at 3.8% and the employment rate at 75.6%. Still lower than the pre-pandemic high of 76.5%.

Reacting to the figures this morning, Rishi said:

“Today’s stats show our jobs market remains robust with redundancies at an all time low. Helping people into work is the best way to support families in the long term, and we are continuing to support people into new and better jobs…”

Inflation is still expected to climb higher yet…

mdi-timer 14 June 2022 @ 08:59 14 Jun 2022 @ 08:59 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
UK Economy Grows Faster than Expected, Household Savings Drop

The UK economy grew at a faster rate than expected between October and December last year, at 1.3% compared to forecasts of 1% according to the Office for National Statistics. GDP is now just 0.1% below its pre-pandemic figure. All this despite the Omicron hysteria at the end of last year…

The rise is also a bounce back from the downwardly revised growth of 0.9% in Q3, with total yearly growth sitting at 7.4% in 2021. Household savings, meanwhile, are at their lowest point since the start of the pandemic, with the ratio at 6.8% by December. Just as inflation begins to bite…

ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan said:

“GDP grew a little stronger than we first thought in the fourth quarter, meaning it is now only 0.1 percent below its pre-pandemic level. Savings were at their lowest level since the start of the pandemic as household spending rose, mainly driven by rising prices.

House prices still continue to soar at their fastest rate since 2004, with the typical price now 21% higher than before the pandemic…

mdi-timer 31 March 2022 @ 09:00 31 Mar 2022 @ 09:00 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Unemployment Drops Below Pre-Pandemic Levels, Inflation Wipes Out Pay Rises

New figures from the ONS show unemployment fell to 3.9% between November and January, the lowest since January 2020, and again beyond economists’ expectations. That’s a fall of 0.2% from the last quarter of 2021, with 1.34 million people recorded as unemployed for the three months to January. And despite the wave of panic from Omicron…

Don’t get too happy: while job vacancies are at a record high, wages failed to keep up with the rapidly rising cost of living: salaries grew by 3.8%, while inflation pushed prices up by 5.5% in the same period. Don’t expect those numbers to improve soon.

Speaking this morning, ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said:

“…the number of people out of work and not looking for a job rose again, meaning total employment remained well below its pre-pandemic level. We have seen yet another record number of job vacancies, and with the redundancy rate falling to a new record low, demand for workers remains strong.”

On wage growth, Fitzner added “The issue is not that pay growth is weak, it’s that prices are running even higher”…

mdi-timer 15 March 2022 @ 09:09 15 Mar 2022 @ 09:09 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
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