New public sector borrowing figures from the ONS make grim reading ahead of the budget. It’s at the third-highest September level since records began and at its highest since the pandemic…

The state has borrowed £6.7 billion more than the OBR forecast so far this financial year, and £1.2 billion more than a year ago this month. The ONS says spending is to blame despite record revenue from growth-killing taxes:

“While tax revenue increased, this was outweighed by increased spending, partly due to higher debt interest and public sector pay rises.”

Chief Treasury Secretary Darren Jones has issued the old line blaming the Tories for having “no plan to fund pay deals for millions of public sector workers. Strikes cost at least £3bn last year, so it was the right thing to do to end those damaging disputes.” At this rate Reeves might have to invent yet another black hole before the budget…

New quarterly National Accounts figures from the Office for National Statistics won’t make happy reading for Reeves and Starmer. Signs that the economy’s recovery is grinding to a halt keep popping up…

GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 has now been revised down to 0.5% from 0.6%, against economists’ expectations. Economic output flatlined for the third time in four months as consumer confidence dives ahead of Reeves’ tax-raising October Budget. Meanwhile GDP growth for the whole of 2023 is revised up from 0.1% to 0.3%. This revision is another spanner in the works for Starmer’s stated mission of getting growth to 2.5%. At least it isn’t falling as fast as his popularity…

ONS figures released today show Britain’s economy flatlined for the second consecutive month, its first under the new Labour government. Farewell to the economy “going gangbusters” under the Tories…

GDP growth had been expected to hit 0.2% in July, having fallen to 0% in June  from 0.4% in May. Grim numbers compared to the first three months of the year with Sunak, where GDP expanded 0.7%. Labour’s ‘party for growth’ not going too well…

The government borrowed £2.9 billion more than expected last month, a blow to Labour’s Rachel Reeves as she prepares her first budget. According to the Office for National Statistics, the government borrowed £14.5 billion in June, £3.2 billion less than last year, though well above the £11.6 billion the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted. No surprise that the quango got it wrong again…

Meanwhile, the government has borrowed £49.8 billion since the fiscal year began. Though the UK is at the top of the G7 growth table for the first quarter (GDP growth was 0.7%), the debt-to-GDP ratio hit 99.5% in June. Labour are inclined to raise taxes, overshooting OBR forecasts will only spur them on…

It’s good enough news for Chancellor Reeves this morning as inflation remains static at the Bank of England’s 2% target according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics. Upward pressure came from restaurants and hotel price rises, countered by falls in garment prices. The figure is still higher than the expected 1.9%…

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones remained cautious: “It is welcome that inflation is at target, but we know that for families across Britain prices remain high. We face the legacy of fourteen years of chaos and economic irresponsibility.” Falls below target are likely needed to buoy less dove-ish rate setters at the Bank of England. A rate cut may not yet come our way in August…

The Office for National Statistics released figures this morning showing that in the year to mid-2023 a gargantuan 1,084,000 people immigrated to England and Wales from outside the UK, while only 462,000 emigrated. The largest annual increase since 1948…

Meanwhile the number of births at 598,000 was the lowest in over two decades. Nigel Farage was, as usual, on the case:

The population of England and Wales rose by nearly 610,000 to 60.9 million last year. That is the biggest increase since records began.

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) July 15, 2024

It has been silence from Tory leadership hopefuls all day, though, after a combative previous week of briefing and counter-briefing. Establishing a credible position on the migration question is seen by many as a key to luring Reform and Labour voters back…