The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show public sector borrowing hit £11.6 billion in August, the fourth highest August figure since records began thirty years ago. Government borrowing so far this year at £90.5 billion is a whopping 40% higher than it was in August 2022…

£5.6 billion of last month’s figure was spent on debt interest alone. That’s almost half of the total. Although that would only fund the NHS for 11 days…

Good news, though: In the financial year-to-August 2023, public borrowing sat at £69.6 billion, £11.4 billion less than forecast by the geniuses at the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR forecasts overshot again thanks to £21 billion extra in government coffers, largely from stealth tax receipts. How about those tax cuts, Jeremy…

Pressure is mounting on the Bank of England to raise interest rates by another 0.25% next week, after new figures from the Office for National Statistics showed average earnings in the three months to July were up by 8.5% on the year. Annual inflation slowed to 6.8% in July. Wages have now pipped inflation for first time in nearly two years…

At the same time, there are signs the labour market is cooling. Unemployment rose again for the third consecutive month to 4.3% while vacancies continued to fall. Jeremy Hunt is keeping a brave face this morning:

“It’s heartening to see the number of employees on payroll is still close to record highs and that our unemployment rate remains below many of our international peers. Wage growth remains high, partly reflecting one-off payments to public sector workers, but for real wages to grow sustainably we must stick to our plan to halve inflation.”

Governor Andrew Bailey has suggested the Bank is nearing the end of its now-monthly interest rate hikes, although yesterday his Monetary Policy Committee colleague Catherine Mann urged officials to “err on the side of tightening further“. All eyes on Threadneedle Street next week…

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has admitted its data was wildly off: the UK economy actually shrank less than thought during the pandemic, and bounced back to pre-Covid levels almost two years ago. According to new figures, GDP is now thought to have been 0.6% higher than before Covid in the last quarter of 2021, not 1.2% smaller. Blowing apart the claim that the UK was the only G7 country not to bounce back from the pandemic…

The ONS admits:

“These revisions are mainly because we have richer data from our annual surveys and administrative data, we are now able to measure costs incurred by businesses directly and we can adjust for prices at a far more detailed level.”

Provided the data stays consistent for 2022-23, this means the UK’s economy is actually bigger than pre-Covid, not 0.2% smaller as previously thought. The entire headline narrative that the UK was unique in its post-Covid stagnation compared to Europe has been contradicted. A huge blunder. “”Lies, damned lies, and statistics”…

UPDATE: Jeremy Hunt takes a victory lap, saying the data “shows that once again those determined to talk down the British economy have been proved wrong. There are many battles still to win, most of all against inflation so we can ease cost of living pressures of families. But if we stick to the plan we can look forward to healthy growth which according to the IMF will be faster than Germany, France, and Italy in the long term.”

New data from the Office for National Statistics shows the UK’s budget deficit between April and July was around £11.4 billion less than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in March’s budget, with the actual figure at £56.6 billion. In July, tax receipts were £3.4 billion higher than twelve months ago. The Chancellor again has more headroom to slash taxes than the OBR gods foretold…

Commenting this morning, Hunt said:

“As inflation slows, it’s vital that we don’t alter our course and continue to act responsibly with the public finances.”

As Julian Jessop points out, borrowing and debt are both still higher than they should be – the way out is to go for growth. The election is about a year away; tax cuts are needed now to lift growth…

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows wages rose at a record annual rate between April and June at 7.8%, the fastest annual rate since records began in 2001. Meanwhile the number of job vacancies fell by 66,000 between May and July, and unemployment rose from from 4% to 4.2%. Although there are still more than one million vacancies overall…
ONS Director of Economic Statistics Darren Morgan said:

“Coupled with lower inflation, this means the position on people’s real pay is recovering and now looks a bit better than a few months back.”

Wages rising this quickly will turn heads in the Bank of England. The latest inflation statistics are out tomorrow. Stay tuned…

Rishi’s hopes of curbing inflation are shrinking rapidly, with new figures from the Office for National Statistics showing wages grew at a record 7.3% between March to May, the joint highest since records began in 2001. Unemployment, meanwhile, hit an unexpected 4%, up from 3.8% in the previous quarter. There are still around a million job vacancies across the country…

Work and Pensions Secretary, Mel Stride, was out defending the rise as he told LBC the government is taking a “firm and robust approach to public pay settlements”. This is the very same Mel Stride that pressured the Truss government to uproot benefits with inflation. Is it any wonder pay demands have been soaring too…

Commenting this morning, Jeremy Hunt said:

“…We still have around one million job vacancies, pushing up inflation even further. Our labour market reforms – including expanding free childcare next year – will help to build the high-wage, high-growth, low-inflation economy we all want to see.”

In last night’s Mansion House speech, he also stressed “delivering sound money” is the government’s “number one focus“, and “bringing down inflation puts more money into people’s pockets than any tax cut“. Rishi promised to halve inflation when it was at 10.7%. It is still stubbornly high at 8.7%, and today’s figures won’t do much to help him out…