OECD Forecasts UK Set for Weakest Growth in Developed World

Grim new forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show the UK is now set for the weakest economic growth in the developed world next year, with no GDP growth at all throughout 2023. A worse projection than for any other OECD member – only Russia is expected to perform worse among the G20:The report also has choice words for Rishi, urging him to “consider slowing fiscal consolidation to support growth” and warning that the UK is unique in grappling with high inflation and rising interest rates whilst also whacking up increasing taxes:

“Inflation is high compared with other OECD countries in the G20 . . . that’s one thing. The other thing is there is fast monetary tightening which is obviously responding to [the inflation] and there is fiscal consolidation which is the highest in the G7.”

The Treasury wearily points out that on the other hand the IMF said only a matter of months ago that Rishi should be raising taxes to stem rising inflation, so the international economic institutions are a bit muddled when it comes to what to do to stop rising inflation. The Treasury argues that a looser fiscal policy would only make inflation worse. As for OECD/IMF forecasts they’re sceptical that it will play out as predicted, pointing out that OECD is at the most pessimistic end of forecasters, with the average forecaster expecting growth above 1%. Nevertheless, perhaps a fiscal consolidation that reduces spending to match tax revenues rather than increases taxes to match spending, might be a more growth friendly way of balancing the books…

mdi-timer 8 June 2022 @ 11:43 8 Jun 2022 @ 11:43 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
OECD Says UK Headed for Best Growth in G-7 in ’21 & ’22

The OECD is forecasting 4.9% GDP growth for the UK next year, the fastest in the G-7. Growth this year will be better than the OECD previously estimated at 6.9% rather than 6.7%. Guido looks forward to how doomster remainers explain this…

As well as the prospect of two years of back-to-back surging growth, it is worth noting that the pound is now higher than it was before the referendum, foreign direct investment in the UK is still massively out-performing our continental rivals and the unemployment rate in the UK is half that of the Eurozone. Thanks to Brexit!

mdi-timer 21 January 2022 @ 15:13 21 Jan 2022 @ 15:13 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Rishi’s Tax Hikes See UK Fall to Bottom Quartile of OECD’s International Tax Competitiveness Index

Sunak’s corporation tax hike would see the UK’s international tax competitiveness slip from 11th to 30th out of 37 OECD nations, a report from the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) warns. The report argues that the UK’s outdated business rates system, its planned corporation tax hike from 19% to 25% and the recent national insurance rise would derail Britain’s economic growth. Once all the planned tax rises come in, the UK will fall to thirtieth place on the International Tax Competitiveness Index, well behind competitors such as the United States, Germany, Canada, and Japan…

Tom Clougherty, head of tax at the CPS, explained:

 “There is nothing wrong with getting the budget balanced, but are we going to do more harm than good with more tax increases?

Right on the money… 

A spokesman for the Treasury said:

“This Government has consistently backed business. The UK has a highly competitive business tax regime and remains one of the best places in the world to do business – we have a lower headline rate of corporation tax than any other major comparable economy and generous reliefs for both research and development.”

Is that really true Rishi? Hiking taxes is clearly harming UK competitiveness…

mdi-timer 26 October 2021 @ 14:37 26 Oct 2021 @ 14:37 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
OECD Received £85 Million From EU

Interesting research just out from Change Britain this evening. The OECD has received a grand total of £85,173,454.91 from the EU since 2007:

  • In 2007 the OECD received €3,915,338 (£2,680,064.52) from the European Commission
  • In 2008 the OECD received €6,915,240 (£5,504,897.55) from the European Commission
  • In 2009 the OECD received €5,217,103 (£4,651,542.95) from the European Commission
  • In 2010 the OECD received €3,947,916 (£3,384,548.39) from the European Commission
  • In 2011 the OECD received €5,796,929 (£5,033,473.45) from the European Commission
  • In 2012 the OECD received €1,722,375 (£1,396,329.41) from the European Commission
  • In 2013 the OECD received €2,669,613 (£2,265,433.59) from the European Commission
  • In 2014 the OECD received €380,249 (£306,784.89) from the European Commission
  • In 2015 the OECD received €32,898,142 (£23,884,051.09) from the European Commission
  • In 2016 the OECD received €44,752,859 (£36,066,329.07) from the European Commission

Puts their scaremongering today into perspective. 

mdi-timer 17 October 2017 @ 17:13 17 Oct 2017 @ 17:13 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
A Look at Some of the OECD’s Previous Forecasts…

The usual suspects are going mad about the OECD’s provocative claim that only having a second referendum and reversing Brexit will save the British economy from apocalypse. Seriously? This is an organisation that said the UK would receive “great benefits” from joining the ERM. They recommended we join the Euro. They said there would be an immediate “major negative shock” in the event of a Leave vote. Remember the OECD was forced to backtrack on its warnings of instant doom last year and revise its forecasts up “as a result of a stronger-than expected performance”. Buried at the bottom of today’s OECD report is a line conceding the outcome “could prove more favourable than assumed here”. You don’t say…

UPDATE: Also worth noting that even the OCED’s most doom-laden predictions now still predict the economy will grow in the event of no deal. What happened to the immediate recession Project Fear promised? 

mdi-timer 17 October 2017 @ 12:35 17 Oct 2017 @ 12:35 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments
Hydroelectric Power: More Deadly than Nuclear and Gas

California’s Oroville dam crisis demonstrates the major risk of hydroelectric power generation: massive flooding after structural collapse. Using official data from the International Energy Agency and OECD, the New Scientist calculates a global death scale for various energy sources. The range shows immediate or subsequent deaths for every 10 terrawatt-hours (TWh) of power generated around the world:

Coal – 2.8 to 32.7 deaths per 10 billion KWh 

Hydroelectric – 1.0-1.6 deaths per 10 billion KWh

Natural gas – 0.3-1.6 deaths per 10 billion KWh

Nuclear – 0.2 to 1.2 deaths per 10 billion KWh 

Even after nuclear disasters like Chernobyl and gas explosions are accounted for, hydroelectric power has still caused more deaths per unit than either. Hydroelectric collapse also threatens the very environment renewable sources are intended to protect: deadly quantities of silt have been displaced in Oroville, leading the California Department of Fish and Wildlife to launch a daring operation to rescue millions of fish (the state has an $8 billion fishing industry). Turns out holding back millions of gallons of water behind walls near a major town and cities isn’t risk free…

mdi-timer 15 February 2017 @ 15:02 15 Feb 2017 @ 15:02 mdi-twitter mdi-facebook mdi-whatsapp mdi-telegram mdi-linkedin mdi-email mdi-comment View Comments