Those wondering why Conservative backbenchers so often find themselves opposing pro-growth policies may well be in luck. In a recent Substack post, Professor Ben Ansell has run an MRP model to find levels of housebuilding support, which can then be mapped by constituency. In news that might only surprise Liz Truss, the main strongholds of the anti-growth coalition are the Conservative shires. Co-conspirators can see for themselves on this map, where housebuilding support is represented by constituency size.
Housebuilding support is concentrated in cities, Scotland and the red-wall – all the areas currently voting Labour. Ansell’s research also includes a warning for pro-growth Conservatives. Amongst voters currently not intending to vote at the next election, house support is far more alike to Conservatives – i.e. the swing voters most in reach for the Conservatives are NIMBYs.
The NIMBYist seats in the country, in order of support for house building are:
- Wyre and Preston North – 16%
- Louth and Horncastle – 18%
- Christchurch – 20%
- Mid Derbyshire – 20%
- Castle Point – 20%
The most YIMBY Tory seat is Kensington, occupied by Felicity Buchan, which has 53.2% support for housebuilding. Meanwhile, Dianne Abbott holds that honour for Labour – the most YIMBY seat in the country with 66%. Guido is counting on them to lead the charge for growth…
On Sunday the Trades Union Congress announced the striking results of their MRP poll conducted with Opinium, predicting a 411-seat Labour landslide. The results were pored over by SW1’s Twitter pundits and sent shivers down the spines of Tory MPs.
Although The Guardian published the names of Cabinet ministers to lose out, Guido has done the public service duty of digging through the data to put the names to each constituency that switched hands in the poll. Strap yourself in, it’s a long list…
Amongst the most notable losses to the Tory backbenches are Matt Hancock, Priti Patel, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Grant Shapps, Douglas Ross and Iain Duncan Smith. The Conservatives also lose most of their inroads to the “red wall” including Lee Anderson, Dehenna Davison and Brendan Clarke-Smith. Boris Johnson is set to lose his seat, he’ll be relieved Reigate remains blue…
Read the full list below:
The second YouGov MRP – this time of over 100,000 people – has halved their last predicted Tory majority; from 68 to only 28, Guido has been told by an insider polling expert…
It looks like the reduction is coming at the expense of both a handful of Tory campaign cock ups and a Brexit Party squeeze. However this last point could be reduced over the next 24 hours…
A CCHQ source told Guido they always knew the first MRP poll was overestimating the Tory lead. The question now is how this changes the media narrative; will it look like the Tories faltering and lose more votes, or make Brexit buttocks clench and cause a last minute Tory boost in target seats…
