Voters head to the polls for local elections today to elect eleven mayors, 2,600 councillors, 37 police and crime commissioners, as well as a new Blackpool South MP. The results will be significant, setting the mood music for the upcoming general election – and how internal Tory politics plays out over the summer. As always, Guido gives you the run down of what to expect when the results start rolling in…
Labour is streaking ahead by a solid and consistent 20 points in the national polls. On that basis, it is fair to say the Tories are going to struggle almost everywhere. The main Conservative talking point of the past 24 hours has been that London is looking closer than thought – but it seems very unlikely Susan Hall will ultimately beat Sadiq Khan clinching a third term. The government is spinning hard that winning just one of the Tees Valley or West Midlands mayoralties would be an incredible success. Both are in doubt in the final polling. Labour is managing down expectations on both – a sign that they are attempting to increase the damage should the Tories lose them. A mayoral wipeout would trigger major incoming flak for Team Sunak – but holding Tees Valley alone (Ben Houchen is the least Sunakite of the candidates) may not help them much either. Especially given he is an acolyte of Boris Johnson…
Notably, all the Tory mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from Rishi in their campaigns. The media has lost track of what is happening in Blackpool South, where Reform could well beat the Tories into second place. The results will drip out over the next few days. Watch out for some neck breaking spin. Guido will, as ever, help decode it…
Guido understands that the Labour Party have suspended Khuram Majid, Labour’s council candidate for the Elland Ward in Calderdale from the local elections following Guido’s story on his social media posts suggesting that Israel should not have been “surprised” about the “inevitable” Hamas bombings. Another one bites the dust…
He’s now pending an investigation, with no party support for his campaign. With the local elections less than two weeks away, as with Azhar Ali in the Rochdale by-election, Majid has to remain on the ballot. Apparently Labour central HQ were made aware of Majid’s questionable views early doors, though are being very slow in releasing an official statement. History does repeat itself…
Lucy Powell on LBC, asked by Tom Swarbrick for her reaction to Labour MP Samantha Niblett’s call for a ‘summer of sex’ debate in Parliament: “I personally don’t own any sex toys, but each to their own… I’m not really sure that’s the right place for it, no.”