After Labour conceded, the votes are in fully. Ben Houchen has held on to Tees Valley. Houchen, got 53.6%, down from 72.8% in 2021. Labour’s Chris McEwan 41.3%, up from 27.2%. A big reduction, though some crucial good news for Sunak…

More than one government source says the plotting situation is: If Houchen wins, Sunak will be just about fine. Houchen, though, is looking a bit further ahead:

“My job as mayor is to do what I can for local people, and if that means I’ve got to work with the Prime Minister, to be frank it doesn’t matter to me who that is – I’m going to do all I can to make sure I get the best deal for the local area… even if there is a change of government later this year or if Rishi is still PM or it’s somebody else, I’ll work with anybody.”

Bit of a dampener for the current occupants of Downing Street…

As co-conspirators wake up to crucial local election results, things are (as expected) bleak for the Tories. There’s no surprise that the parliamentary by-election for Blackpool South has been convincingly retaken by Labour after Scott Benton’s implosion, with a massive swing of 26.3 points. That’s the third biggest swing from Conservatives to Labour in post war election history. Reform were within a whisker (117 votes) of putting the Tories into third place. Reform has performed strongly elsewhere so far where they are standing…

The remainder of the picture is basically a total clean up for Labour – gaining Hartlepool, Thurrock, Redditch and even deeply formerly Tory Rushmoor. The Tories are pointing to Oldham, where Labour lost overall control of the council – but that is due to local factors over Gaza. A loss of control over the London narrative – with Tory briefings widely quoted overnight as saying Susan Hall would win – now seems unlikely. Plenty of big results still to come in though…

The Tories are pushing hard that these are ‘mid term’ results so are irrelevant for a general election – an odd choice of defence given it’s the end of the parliamentary term and a general election year. Whether Sunak is safe is unresolved…

Voters head to the polls for local elections today to elect eleven mayors, 2,600 councillors, 37 police and crime commissioners, as well as a new Blackpool South MP. The results will be significant, setting the mood music for the upcoming general election – and how internal Tory politics plays out over the summer. As always, Guido gives you the run down of what to expect when the results start rolling in…

Labour is streaking ahead by a solid and consistent 20 points in the national polls. On that basis, it is fair to say the Tories are going to struggle almost everywhere. The main Conservative talking point of the past 24 hours has been that London is looking closer than thought – but it seems very unlikely Susan Hall will ultimately beat Sadiq Khan clinching a third term. The government is spinning hard that winning just one of the Tees Valley or West Midlands mayoralties would be an incredible success. Both are in doubt in the final polling. Labour is managing down expectations on both – a sign that they are attempting to increase the damage should the Tories lose them. A mayoral wipeout would trigger major incoming flak for Team Sunak – but holding Tees Valley alone (Ben Houchen is the least Sunakite of the candidates) may not help them much either. Especially given he is an acolyte of Boris Johnson…

Notably, all the Tory mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from Rishi in their campaigns. The media has lost track of what is happening in Blackpool South, where Reform could well beat the Tories into second place. The results will drip out over the next few days. Watch out for some neck breaking spin. Guido will, as ever, help decode it…

Guido understands that the Labour Party have suspended Khuram Majid, Labour’s council candidate for the Elland Ward in Calderdale from the local elections following Guido’s story on his social media posts suggesting that Israel should not have been “surprised” about the “inevitable” Hamas bombings. Another one bites the dust…

He’s now pending an investigation, with no party support for his campaign. With the local elections less than two weeks away, as with Azhar Ali in the Rochdale by-election, Majid has to remain on the ballot. Apparently Labour central HQ were made aware of Majid’s questionable views early doors, though are being very slow in releasing an official statement.  History does repeat itself…

LibDem Leader Ed Davey clearly didn’t have his weetabix last week. When asked a simple question on BBC Kent on who his party’s candidate for Kent Police & Crime Commissioner was, Davey struggled to remember. The presenter was even so kind as to give Davey a hint, telling him the three candidate names that will be on the ballot paper in the upcoming local elections. Davey still couldn’t answer, though to be fair, apparently his mind had “gone all fuzzy”…

Eventually the presenter put Davey out of his misery, telling him that the LibDem candidate was in fact Graham Colley. The Party Leader finished strong: “that does sound familiar“.  Colley may not be so jolly about this one…